Buy @ $0.71, $0.705, $0.695, $0.69, $0.685, $0.68, $0.66
xbi today.
- Vol = 15,131,000
- Range = $0.66 to $0.76
- Close = $0.66
Based on theorectical xbi price = $0.724, a drop of 8.8% at $0.66 close. The sell down was fierce and relentless… Most likely, CEO is responsible (CP = UOBKH) plus possibly AMAT (CP = Morgan Stanley), wait for SGX confirmation.
Very scary… reminds me of REITs 1st day listing a long time ago…
To check on the above possibility, the tabulated CEO sales over the past years.
|
Date |
Qty |
Avg Unit Price |
Balance |
Holdings |
||
|
4-Mar-14 |
1,024,000 |
$ 0.64983 |
25.78% |
88,607,727 |
||
|
3-Mar-14 |
5,976,000 |
$ 0.64992 |
26.07% |
89,631,727 |
||
|
4-Mar-13 |
931,000 |
$ 0.43706 |
27.81% |
95,607,727 |
||
|
1-Mar-13 |
948,000 |
$ 0.44552 |
28.08% |
96,538,727 |
||
|
27-Apr-12 |
4,570,000 |
$ 0.47000 |
28.36% |
97,486,727 |
||
|
26-Apr-12 |
8,074,000 |
$ 0.47650 |
29.69% |
102,056,727 |
||
Observations,
-
CEO sales started from 2012
- Twice per year on consecutive days (2-Mar-13 & 3-Mar-13 are weekends)
- In Mar for ’13 & ’14 ; Apr for ’12
- Already sold for 2014!
So, if the same pattern is maintained this year, it may not be CEO selling today. My fingers now point towards AMAT. It’d also explain that tiny sale on 2-Jun followed by a possibly full divestment. If that’s the case, we may see continued selling for at least one more day. For their recent sale, AMAT only reported 2 days later. So, we may not know till next Monday.
Nevertheless, if we focus on the fundamentals, at $0.66,
- PE = 9.82 (FY13) or 8.81 (latest 4Qs)
- Yield = 7.879% (incl. Special Div) or 6.061% (excl Special Div)
- Cash = 11.49ct / share -> 9.2ct / share (Enlarged Base from Bonus Issue)
Fundamentally, looks ok… unless there’s fraud, like S-Chips…
I sill have enough in my warchest for further buys… although the experience today was not very good for the heart, to see it under continuous attack and prices getting lower and lower… 😀
Most of my today’s buys were done in a separate account, so that I can contra off at a lower price if it were to rebound… So, I remain flexible to either buy or sell depending on price…
My first guess was correct after all… CEO sold 10Mil @ $0.6939 on 5-Jun…. Having broken one past pattern of selling only once per year (2 consecutive trading days), let's see if he follow the remaining pattern and sold in 2 consecutive days…
Mkt data for 6-Jun (Fri),
Market looks positive with ECB reducing rates to an unprecedented negative (to encourage banks to lend, in order to stimulate Europe economy) and US Job Figures positive. For now, not much fears around… perhaps also, World Cup soon… 😀
As long as CEO / AMAT stop selling, there's a good chance prices will recover. Hopefully, they have not spooked away investors… like what happened in Apr-12 when CEO sold a total of 12.64Mil shares over 2 consecutive days…and prices dropped fm around 50ct to 40ct.. The difference now is Industry looks a bit more robust… Hopes…
My 2nd guess wasn't entirely wrong either… AMAT sold 2,731,000 @ $0.6932 on 5-Jun… So, some observations,
AMAT holdings dropped below 5% and we may not see any further announcements… By right, due to the 1-for-4 Bonus Issue, AMAT holdings may still be above 5% but as there appear to be a few days before it gets credited in, it's being announced as 4.83%.
CEO also continued selling on 6-Jun… 3Mil @ $0.67393… Let's hope he stays with his 2-days selling pattern…
Mkt data for 9-Jun,
Good chance CEO selling may have stopped … for now… 😀