Category: A-HTrust

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.73

Sell @ $0.73

Sell at a loss… but after DPU = 2.75ct for 2H (Mar-16), a tiny profit… Hit a hi of $0.74 after I sold… No more left… again… 😀

This batch was bought on high expectation of an Offer for their assets succeeding, with RNAV = $0.86… However, the mgmt decided on No Go, likely cos' Offer must have been closer to previous NAV = $0.72…

This Q is a non-DPU paying Q and I'm expecting DPU to weaken further as Revenue is 67.7% Australia (54.5% NPI) and the A$ was 2.8% weaker for the Q (altho' they may hv hedged it). This may be partially balanced by better Japan (16.1% Rev, 21.3% NPI) & Singapore (7.4% Rev, 16.1% NPI) results. Further, the Yield for the last 2H's were supported by Divestment Gain 0f $0.6m – $0.7m (with this H to be the last one, another $0.7m). Strip that out, the Yield is closer to 7%…. Not good enough for me, ATM…

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.705

Sell @ $0.705

One batch turned profitable… left the original ones bought as a bet of an Offer going through… but was turned down by Mgr… 😀

STI +25.68 @ 2901.82… REITs Avg Yield = 6.97%… Mkt quite bullish!

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.70

Sell @ $0.70

Contra off… 2H DPU = 2.75ct is really lower than my downgraded max estimate of 2.8ct… The weaker DPUs of the other H-Trusts, despite having different asset mix (Hotels, Serviced Apt, Commercial) and Countries, provided a good indicator after all…  Yield = 7.857% is now within a 7.x% range, same as the other H-Trusts,

REIT

Price

Yield

Gearing

NAV

Frasers Htrust

$ 0.775

7.873%

39.3%

$ 0.851

-8.9%

A-HTrust

$ 0.700

7.857%

32.7%

$ 0.860

-18.6%

FE-HTrust

$ 0.610

7.557%

32.7%

$ 0.932

-34.6%

OUE H-Trust

$ 0.655

7.466%

37.8%

$ 0.810

-19.1%

CDL Htrust

$ 1.355

7.262%

36.7%

$ 1.553

-12.7%

AscottREIT

$ 1.115

7.161%

38.9%

$ 1.340

-16.8%

A contra gain is irresistible under current mkt uncertainty… especially since the Hospitality sector is not exactly booming… 😀

By NPI

54.5%

8.1%

21.3%

16.1%

Total

DPU

Country

Australia

China

Japan

Singapore

Period

Rev

NPI

Rev

NPI

Rev

NPI

Rev

NPI

Rev

NPI

Q4 – Mar16

35.8

11.5

4.7

1.5

8.5

6.0

3.9

4.4

52.9

23.4

1.3000

Q3 – Dec15

39.1

13.6

5.5

1.8

6.8

4.7

3.5

3.3

54.9

23.4

1.4500

Q2 – Sep15

38.1

12.7

5.9

2.0

6.7

4.4

3.8

3.5

54.5

22.6

1.3800

Q1 – Jun15

37.3

11.7

5.6

2.1

6.5

4.2

3.4

3.4

52.8

21.4

1.2800

Q4 – Mar15

38.4

12.2

4.5

1.2

6.4

4.0

5.2

5.2

54.5

22.6

1.2525

Q3 – Dec14

45.4

16.3

5.1

1.6

6.4

4.2

3.8

3.7

60.7

25.8

1.3000

Q2 – Sep14

42.1

13.7

5.3

1.8

6.9

4.3

3.8

3.4

58.1

23.2

1.2672

Q1 – Jun14

39.4

11.9

5.3

2.0

6.4

4.5

3.2

3.2

54.3

21.6

1.2400

Q4 – Mar14

40.1

13.1

4.4

1.5

4.2

2.4

5.0

5.0

53.7

22.0

1.2029

2H DPU includes ~0.1ct Divestment Gains ie DPU = 2.65ct if this is excluded… May not be a concern for next Half DPU as one Japan asset resumes operation after being closed for refurbishment…

On a YoY basis, the bright spots comes mainly from Japan, with both Singapore & Australia facing pressure. As for China, NPI contribution is not very significant.

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.685

Buy @ $0.685

With this, I have covered back my recent sell… Let's hope results on 12-May is not too bad… 😀

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.69

Buy @ $0.69

Didn't expect it to get done when I put it in the Buy Q…. So far, the Hospitality Trusts had reported weaker DPU (except for FE-HTrust YoY),

  • CDL-HTrust : 2.22ct vs 2.44ct YoY vs 3.01ct QoQ
    • Hotels : Singapore (61%), Australia (11.5%) ; Maldives (10.9%) ; NZ (8.5%) ; Japan (4.3%) ; UK (3.9%) by NPI
  • FHT : 1.3306ct vs 1.37ct YoY vs 1.72ct QoQ
    • Hotels (60.7%) ; Serviced Apt (39.3%) : Australia (31%) ; Singapore (29%) ; UK (15%) ; Japan (16%) by NPI
  • FE-HTrust : 1.08ct vs 1.07ct YoY vs 1.17ct QoQ
    • Hotels (65.5%) ; Commercial (21%) ; Serviced Apt (13.5%) by Revenue

Not the best comparison but my expectation for A-HTrust (Hotels : Australia 58% ; Japan 20% ; Singapore 14% ; China 8% by NPI) is now one notch lower at max DPU = 2.8ct (from 2.9ct)…  ðŸ˜€

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.70

Sell @ $0.70

Q'd to sell, not expecting to get done as long Q… Baseline shifted up to $0.70 / $0.705 after I sold… Results on 12-May… So far, for Hospitality REITs, FE-HTrust (63.5% Revenue in Hotel, with Serviced Apt 13.5% & Commercial 21%) released results yesterday AM with DPU = 1.08ct vs 1.07ct YoY vs 1.17ct QoQ…. 😀

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.68

Buy @ $0.68

Late afternoon selling cleared the $0.68 Buy Q of 1000+…. 2nd day in a row…. someone may have lots to clear… 😀

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.665

Buy @ $0.665

Terrible… they announced in SGX they'd ceased all discussions on the unsolicited offer… Big drop in share price from yesterday's close of $0.765… Opened at $0.68, Range = $0.66 – $0.69…

Activate Plan B… Buy to average down and wait for 2H DPU… I est. 2.8ct – 2.9ct, inclusive of Capital Gains of 0.4ct – 0.8ct… Next Q, which is a non-DPU paying Q, reopened Japan asset should cover for the shortfall from the one-time Capital Gains component… Still, will likely sell if prices should recover to my BE… 😀

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.75

Buy @ $0.75

A new addition back to my portfolio. Previously after I'd sold off my stake on earnings concern, A-HTrust had announced an unsolicited offer for their assets and prices had shot up above NAV = 72ct. Many moons had passed with no concrete offer announcement… except for regular updates that it's still on-going… Last evening, there was an SGX Annc on the latest NAV = 84.2ct…  With that, there's now a potential ~10% upside if an offer comes true… In addition, a Japan asset which'd closed for reburbishment will resume operation in April… Last Q (Dec) DPU = 1.45ct (1.4ct if exclude Divestment Gains) means 2H DPU likely around 2.8ct to 2.9ct… Take the risk, grab some… 😀