Category: F&N

Sell @ $2.19

FY15 results were out last Friday…. didn't notice till I was alerted by the cd sign next to share price today… Div = 3ct maintained… 😀

Decided to sell as I'd bought recently as a bet for a better Div… was hoping for a tiny increase despite their previous news release stating that they intend to reinvest the proceeds from sale of Myanmar Brewery…

FY15 (Continuing biz) EPS = 4.4ct, down from 6.8ct… Big drop from Beverages due to Foreign Currencies weakness and Higher Marketing & Admin Expenses (new product launches such as Oishi & Coco Life cited)… PE = 50 (35 ex-cash) don't look good…  Cash = 67ct / share will be the main reason to provide price support… unless their EPS recovers… or increases from new acquisitions…

Buy @ $2.16

Average down… 😀

Myanmar Brewery stake was sold on 19-Aug for US%560m (~S$777m).

Using info fm SGX Annc dated 7-Aug, EPS for FY14 (before fair value adjustments & exceptional items),

• 10ct (before disposal)
• 7.1ct (after disposal)

PE will increase fm 21.8 to 30.7…. Looks scary if no Special Div (mentioned in annc that proceeds is intended to be deployed for new and existing investments) to support prices…

But, if we factor in Cash of aro' 53.7ct / share fm Myanmar Brewery sale, PE = 23.14 (Share Price minus Cash / Share).

Not so scary,,, but they must redeploy the proceeds wisely…

Very likely, for the coming 2H results, Div = 3ct can be maintained… Keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best for the future….. 😀

Sell @ $2.82

Contra off.  Last day of cd for Div = 2ct… A nice Buy Q appeared at above Break-Even Price and so happened I bought extras…. 😀

Buy @ $2.78

Wah… magic worked… prices lower after I bought yesterday… Recovered to close @ $2.81, but super low vol… in 100s… 😀

Buy @ $2.80, $2.79

Finally saw a big enough block at Sell Q @ $2.80 (usually only 0.x in Q) and bought some to replace my recent sale. After that, place 0.x in Buy Q @ $2.79 and surprisingly, some were done… 😀

Sell @ $2.84

During the last minutes of 5pm matching, saw a large enough Buy block and quickly decided to take profit for the profitable ones… Am left with the close to $3 ones… Recent results don't appear very good, despite their Press Release  headlines. Take profit first and patiently wait to collect back….. 😀

Buy @ $2.82, $2.81

With STI at a 7-Yr high of 35xx, most stocks in my watch list don't look attractive… Note that F&N is not exactly cheap either and faces the uncertainty of the lucrative Myanmar Brewery biz being forced to be sold to their Myanmar partner…But, almost no other F&B listco of good size left now… Hv to bet on their unfettered (last time constrained by their Coco Cola agreement) expansion into the regions… 😀

Buy @ $2.81

Replacement for recent sale…. 😀

Sell @ $2.86

Contra off, jump-Q during 9am matching… Too tempting… can't resist…. Mkt remains very volatile, especially in the US… better to take profit and switch on opportunity… 😀

Buy @ $2.81

Finally decided to buy back the ones I sold. Someone seems eager to sell… hit a low of $2.79…

Note that F&N PE = 28 is not exactly cheap and Yield = 1.56% is not exactly attractive. Further, their Growth had recently stuttered, with Q1 (Dec-14) seeing a negative in their Malaysia Operations due to the floods there. The Myanmar Beer issue is also yet to be resolved… So, a bet on their Growth story is likely to take a lot longer to happen… will have to rely on their Thai connections to make bigger inroads in the Thai mkt…. am less optimistic on cross selling ThaiBev non-alcoholic products in Singapore… 😀