Category: Forterra

Sell @ $2.24, $2.25, $2.30

Contra off my recent ones plus some older ones. For this rather low volume stock, I can see the occasional buying spurts which can easily move the price up / down. Vol = 358,000 ; Range = $2.16 to $2.30. I was still comtemplating buying more at $2.16/7 in the early afternoon before the Buyer appeared…. 😀

Buy @ $2.20, $2.18, $2.17

Have bought back the Qty I'd sold recently. Unlikely to add more unless it drops towards $2.10.

I guess may have to wait for their next PR exercise to create demand or some concrete plans in next Q results… 😀

Sell @ $2.28

Decided to take profit for some of my holding as I'd been too aggressive in buying when it looked clear that Nan Fung deal was through (from married deal Qty & price) even before they did an SGX Annc. Recent price strength could be due to their road show – Presentation Slides was posted in SGX Annc yesterday. My guess is Nan Fung will be putting in a lot more effort to try to push the price towards their $2.98 acquisition of their stake. Let's see if I get to sell at higher prices or buy back at lower prices… 😀

Buy @ $2.13

The official SGX Annc was released yesterday on Nan Fung acquiring their 29.98% stake and the 100% of the Management company. This is after the unofficial release on 23-Aug when I jumped in to increase my stake at $2.21 to $2.36 for an average price of $2.2919.  It's not performing to my expectations of moving towards the $2.98 price they paid. Coupled with the 10 days STI decline, it looks very scary…. 😀

Today, with the STI finally turning positive, fingers got itchy and decided to buy more to bring down my average price. In the worst case, be prepared to hold for longer term. If my analysis of their Q213 (Jun) Financials are correct, their recent sale of an asset has inceased the Amount available for Distribution to 19ct / unit. I'm hopeful that they'll resume their DPU payout from 2H (Dec-13), unless the cash flow need to be deployed for either debts reduction (for Q213, Finance Cost > NPI) or to be utilised for other Developmental projects.

Buy @ $2.36, $2.35, $2,28, $2.21

At 9:42am, was alerted by Sam of huge volume and price run-up. He checked that 68,268 lots @ $2.98, married deal @ 9:32am. The price and qty figures tally with the Nan Fung deal but there were no SGX Annc. Prices ran up to a high of $2.45 and when it retraced back, I decided to buy… all the way down to $2.21. The SGX Annc finally came out at 12:08pm but prices at best just see-sawed from $2.21 to $2.28.

At least my bet that this deal has a high probability of success did finally come true. The other part I was expecting didn't happen…. I'm expecting prices to trade closer to $2.98, with ~10% discount ie. ~$2.68. Looks like it may take a while and likely need Nan Fung to show more visibilty plus action. My expectation would be something like what F&N did at FCOT. May take a few years… Their last DPU payout was for Jun-11 (1H) and I'm hopeful that they'll resume for Dec-13 (2H) as their cash flow is now a lot better after selling an asset in recent times. 😀

Buy @ $2.10

Only 1 lot done during preopen matching. Didn't add more as STI was weak and there were a lot of other stocks to distract me… 😀

Buy @ $2.14

Market seems to be fearful, with STI finally in the -ve (yesterday was skewed +ve by the 3 Jardine stocks, which, IIRC, have a heavy weightage in the STI). My intial small stake is getting bigger, going to lose sleep soon…… 😀

Buy @ $2.21

Very illiquid with big buy/sell gap, easier to get during pre-open or pre-close. The risk-reward on first look, is rather unattractive. If the Nan Fung deal fails, it'll likely drop back to ~$1.60 ie. -60ct and if it goes thro', it'll rise towards $2.98 (what Nan Fung will pay for their stake) ie. +70ct+. Any bet  therefore hinges on whether this Nan Fung deal has a high probability of failure or success…

I'm betting that the chances of success is a lot more than 50% (refer to VB forum for more info on Forterra and Nan Fung as there're good info and links there). Will likely continue to nibble on further drops – likely to happen if the deal drags and chances of success starts to fade… 😀

Buy @ $2.21, $2.18

Had run up from sub-$2…. Was known as TCT (Treasury China Trust) but changed name when the controlling shareholders "transferred" ownership as they were facing liquidation… Go read VB thread for more.

Their main biz is in China properties. They develop office cum retail properties for sale and rental income. DPU was stopped after Jun-11 half due to insufficient cash flow (prioritised for development of buildings). The controlling shareholders were also embroiled in law suits in Ireland.

What started my interest was the SGX Annc on a Conditional Sales agreement with Nan Fung (unlisted HK Property group) @ $2.98. One of the condition was the settlement at the Irish Courts, which was announced on Irish Times  last night before the SGX Annc this AM.

I'm taking a bet that this complex deal will go through and if so, Forterra share price will move up closer towards $2.98 (likely at least 10% lower, tho'). If it fails, then it'll drop back below $2. NAV = $4.25, ~48% discount now. Closest SGX listed comparable is PCRT, which trades at 19.7% discount to NAV. But, PCRT gives a 6.75% DPU Yield and has lower Gearing = 23.1% vs 34.7% for Forterra.

It's now up to Nan Fung to make their decision. Their lawyers must be scrutinising the Irish Court judgement closely now and I'm expecting them to decide at the earliest, even before market re-opens tomorrow. Any delay, share price will likely start to slide back…

Quite a lot of info in VB forum. Go read it for more info before taking any risk… 😀

 

References

Singapore Law Watch