Category: M1

Buy @ $2.22

Q3 Results out last night… EPS 3.7ct vs 4.8ct yoy vs 4.4ct qoq… altho' they stated drop is mainly due to higher depreciation, there's also a drop across most segments… for mobile, despite slightly higher mkt share and average data consumed being slightly higher, profits still declined… this may be due to their pre-emptive lower additional data pricing in anticipation of competition from 4th TELCO…

• Closed @ $2.31, -12ct ; Range $2.20 – $2.26
• Starhub closed @ $3.39, -6ct ; Range $3.34 – $3.40
• Singtel closed @ $3.94, +3ct ; Range $3.88 – $3.94

FCF = 7.64ct, looks healthy… but if Spectrum Rights = $64.1M were included as CAPEX, FCF = 0.75ct…

With Dividend Policy to pay out 80% of NPAT, 2H Div looks set to drop to 6.5ct to 6.9ct vs 8.3ct (2H15) if current trend of lower EPS continues… unless they increase Payout to 100% (as in 2H14)… 😀

 

Sell @ $2.34

Contra off both recent buys as target hit… 😀

Buy @ $2.27

Just when I started buying… more drops… Not a Div Quarter, may have to keep another Q… 😀

Buy @ $2.33, $2.31

Average down… 😀

Buy @ $2.44

Buy back… Fears are back, -7ct @ $2.45 close…  😀

Sell @ $2.54

Contra off… Cheap thrills… 😀

Buy @ $2.51

4th TELCO tender process started… 3 interested parties…

• M1 $2.51, -15ct
• Singtel $3.87, -10ct
• Starhub $3.47, -16ct

Decided on M1 as it's closest to recent lows… 😀

Sell @ $2.79

Big +7ct after I sold yesterday…. My only profitable ones after Div = 8.3ct + 7ct collected… The mkt may be slowly losing it's fears of a 4th Telco… Analysts are pointing to weak financial mkt condition as reason 4th Telco may not be able to raise the huge sum of $$ required for the infrastructure… I play safe as the tender date approaches… Will likely do more short term trades…

Sell @ $2.73

A surprise +6ct when STI is -ve… even Starhub -6ct…

This batch was bought for Yield Rotation Play… but failed as it dropped before xd and BE wasn't hit at all…  After xd, I failed to buy more to average down, due to fears (of further drops as 4th Telco tender looms in the horizon) + Greed (want to get it cheaper)… It started gaining in strength recently and today, my BE (after Div = 7ct) was hit… So, Adios! Can consider as a successful Yield Rotations Play?? 😀

Buy @ $2.78, $2.72

Got too over-optimistic on the Div = 7ct being maintained and good FCF = 12.3ct for 1H… Closed an eye to declining Revenue (mostly due to lower Handset sales), Lower Profits (Hit by lower ARPU across the board) & Guidance that FY16 will have lower Net Profit of sing digit… Also forgot about IDA announcing 4th TELCO tender to start on 1-Sep… Looks like fears may be back…

• Starhub : -7ct @ $3.87 ; Range $3.85 – $3.93
• M1 : -7ct @ $2.71 ; Range $2.70 – $2.79
• Singtel : -4ct @ $4.24 ; Range $4.23 – $4.30
• STI : +3.41 @ 2928.76 ; Range 2923.75 – 2941.15