Category: NeraTel

Sell @ $0.785

My last lots, no more left. As STI continued to weaken (-39.85), I decided to raise free cash. Neratel became my first choice as share price stayed flat and the small Qty allows me to quickly remove one stock from my potfolio (become more focussed if I need to defend any stocks).

A bit unwilling to sell as the Q2 foward statement (from analysts' reports ie. not in Q2 financials) mentioned that Q3 will be better as projects got delayed from Q2 even as expenses were being recognised. If not for that, my calculated PE = 18.45 (latest 4Qs) makes it attractive only if EPS grows. Will keep in my watch list in case prices do drop to my preferred level and I happen to have free cash… 😀

Sell @ $0.81, $0.815

Continue to take profit, left one last batch to sell. Market continue to be bullish on Neratel…. 😀

Sell @ $0.77, $0.775, $0.78, $0.785, $0.79

A recent positive report by CIMB on 16-Jul (extract below) may have helped to support the price strength here. Valuations are for FY15 and rather bullish on the projected new biz from the Nigeria market.

I decided to continue with my profit taking… My thinking is, a lot can happen between now and FY15 and looking at the recent Qs of results, although Revenue is increasing, profit is not….

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush?

I have not that many left, may have to set higher sell target… 😀

 

 

Sell @ $0.765

Decided to reduce my stake further (dropped to <5% of my portfolio). Recent SGX Annc is on the controlling shareholders being reduced from 3 pax to one pax. The 2 Indonesians from Northstar have transferred their stake of the controlling entity to the remaining partner (a Singaporean, also from Northstar). Let's see what new directions he'll set for Neratel in the coming Q2 results (6-Aug last year), if any.

As it now may not be a potential Growth stock,  PE (latest 4Qs) = 18.17 (after removing the 1-time gain from last Q2's acquisition of Nera Malaysia) ; Yield = 5.229% (assuming no Special Interim Div = 2ct ; 7.83% if include), it no longer look very attractive. Q2 results will be important for me to decide on what to do with this stock but I may have already sold my entire stake by then (as there seems to be buyers supporting and pushing the price slowly higher – perhaps they know something we don't??)… 😀

Sell @ $0.765, $0.76

Cleared all my extras plus some of the original ones which I’d intended to hold for longer term yield. Went to check on their FCF (Free Cash Flow) to see if an Interim Dividend is possible but instead, see that for past 2 years, FCF/share was less than the usual 4ct Total Div,

 

There was a big increase in CAPEX in FY13, likely as per their new Leasing model. FY14 will be interesting to see if that’s going to results in higher OCF (Operating Cash Flow). For now, it looks unlikely Total Div will be increased from the current 4ct, unless they dip into their Cash (11.53ct / share).

Sell @ $0.755, $0.76

Looks like accumulation is going on… been going on for a while now. Either insiders or someone buying ahead of Interim results, expecting the 2ct div to be repeated. But, looking at EPS, it's highly unlikely… max perhaps 1ct, unless it's coming from better Cash Flows. Milkman may also have motivations to milk the cow as their Indonesia Equity Funds may be under pressure..

Anyway, still sell my extras.. Left one last batch of extras… 😀

Sell @ $0.75

Cleared all my extras which were bought above 70ct. Left a couple of extras which were bought at just below $0.70 plus the original cheaper ones. Will only sell the remaining extras at higher prices. 😀

Sell @ $0.745, $0.75

Continue to sell my extras. I still have a few more batches… Got overly optimistic last time after reading the couple of TheEdge articles on the Indonesian owner's plan to unlock value in Neratel. Looks like those plans had been mostly shelved, perhaps, they ae too busy dealing with their bigger Indonesia focussed Equity Funds due to the weakening INR (although it recovered ~7% in Q1, it weakened ~4% Q2 to end-May). Perhaps there'll be better stability (in Indonesia) after their Presidential Elections and the controlling shareholder will have more time to unlock value here?

For now, I'm flexible to sell more extras or to buy back on dips… 😀

 

Sell @ $0.74, $0.745 (Partially done)

Finally get to sell some of my extras after xd. Mkt is bullish today, with STI +28.87 @ 3300.71 (barely crossed above 3300). Perhaps it's due to the Singpost – Alibaba proposal announced yesterday where Alibaba will take a 10.35% stake in Singpost via New Shares @ $1.42 + Treasury Shares, as we're not seeing the same bullishness in the regional markets.

It could also be due to expectations of a repeat of the 2ct Interim Div paid last year (from excess cash after acquiring Nera Malaysia). Looking at their EPS, this is very unlikely. Perhaps, at most 1ct to 1.5ct (Interim) + 4ct (Final), have to look at their Cash Flow in detail or EPS ramps up due to their recurring Leasing income gaining critical mass..

I still have more extras to sell. As I have cleared all my > $0.715 ones, I also have the option to buy back if it should drop to $0.72-$0.725 or lower… 😀

Note that it was Q213 (Jun) when they did the Nera Malaysia acquisition which resulted in EPS = 2.9ct (1.93ct due to acquisition gains). We'll therefore see a "big drop" in EPS for Q214 (Jun) in the absence of such extraordinary gains and I don't know how the market will react to this when they release their Q2 results (8-Aug last year), especially if they're unable to repeat the 2ct Interim Div..

Sell @ $0.78

Continue with my selling… Motivated by STI -30 at one point in time…. This week, market may be volatile as the US FED is meeting on Wed, US Job data on Fri plus China PMI data on Wed, according to the news. Good to have free cash, lots of it, if possible.. 😀