Sell @ $0.845
Decided to sell as it hit my target price, as mentioned yesterday. No more left. Likely only look at it again 6mths later for next semi-annual payout… unless JPY strengthens….. 😀
Saizen @ $0.875
Saizen @ $0.8667
Buy @ $0.87, $0.86
Selling at $0.87 whole day. Jump-Q for $0.86 at 5pm close to add to my $0.87 ones done earlier…. 😀
Results were out yesterday. DPU = 3.1ct, same as last HY. Within my expectations as they had hedged JPY @ 81.9, within the band of last HY (76.18 to 82). There'll be downward pressure on DPU for next HY if JPY continue to be weak, with worst case scenario at their new Hedged Rate = 85.6 (est. DPU = S2.966ct based on same Distribution in JPY)…. Take a bet on Yield Rotation play before xd.
Saizen @ $0.87
Buy @ $0.87
Collect back. Try for Yield Rotation Strategy as 1H results will be out on 11-Feb (AM). Am expecting DPU to remain at 3ct+ despite JPY being -11% lower from end-Jun '14 to end-Dec '14 as they have hedged JPY for the 1H DPU @ 81.9 vs 90.41 (end-Dec '14) vs 87.18 (now). But, NAV will likely be hit, my est. $1.085 vs $1.14 (Sep-14) vs $1.22 (Jun-14).
Going forward, chances of lower DPU for next Half (2H) is very high… will depend on their next DPU Hedge Rate (hv to chk fm next results annc)…. but positive signs are JPY had recovered a bit (~3.5%) since end-Dec '14 + latest MAS policy to stregthen S$ at a more gradual slope.
Anyway, try my luck for a short term bet… 😀
Saizen @ $0.90
Sell @ $0.90
Clear the last of my holdings at a loss, even after collecting 3 DPUs of total 9.5ct. Main reason is to switch to other stocks as I'm almost out of free cash. Today, there appear to be someone collecting, with a couple of 100 lots supporting the 90ct Buy Q. JPY reversed during the past couple of days and may be a contibuting reason… 😀
Saizen @ $0.935
Sell @ $0.935
Am selling at a loss but after 3 DPUs, can recognise a pofit…. 😀
Someone was collecting in small Qty in the AM and I decided to make use of the opportunity to sell down my stake further. Reasons remain the same… fear of falling exchange rate, faster than rental reversions and inability to understand their financials well.
Saizen @ $0.935
Sell @ $0.935
Forgot to sell yesterday (1st day xd for 3.2ct DPU) when it opened and matched at $0.94. Sold at a loss but will have a small profit after DPU payout.
I managed to clear all the ones I'd bought in anticipation of a good recommendation (eg. Pay out Special DPU due to high cash or Sell all assets and liquidate as NAV Discount 20%+) but was disappointed with it maintaining status quo. Am left with the original ones but may also sell those at current prices if there are buy volume. Reasons,
- Unable to understand their financials. Saizen uses Loan Amortization (they explained that it helps to lower their loan interest expenses – I can understand this) but uses Cash Reserves to offset that in order to maintain a larger DPU payout. They further mentioned that this DPU component (close to 50%) may not be sustainable as it's dependent on their Free Cash balance. What I don't understand is why Saizen is doing a Loan Amortization as I don't see it being done in other REITs, including those with Japan assets eg. CRT (in case it's a Japanese accounting requirement).
- Abenomics is taking a longer time to positively impact Residential assets and more so, in outlying areas (Tokyo commercial properties are already enjoying good increase in valuations)
- JPY continued to weaken recently, possibly to help make their Exports more competitive. But, this is bad for Saizen DPU
- Next DPU payout is 6mths later. Money could be better deployed elsewhere.
However, in the event Saizen share price slides towards 90ct, I may change my strategy… 😀
Saizen @ $0.94
Buy @ $0.94
Only partially done. Very low volume. Prices have not dropped back to the $0.90 level after the Review Report came out and no positive action was decided upon to realise shareholder value…. Am buying for the expected (me) 2H DPU = 3ct+. Further, Abenomics appears to be working (plue JPY had stopped weakening), although Saizen have yet to enjoy any benefit… will likely take longer for any positive spillover, if any… 😀