Category: UMS

Sell @ $0.525

Only partially done… Selling at a huge loss… but adequately covered by the total dividend received… My Creative Accounting Estimate is a BE @ $0.525… 😀

9M EPS = 5.67ct ; 9M FCF = 5.24ct

My Est, FY15 EPS = 6.94ct ; FCF = 6.93ct ie Good possibility of Q415 Div = 3ct at least, max 4ct.

Still, I have decided to sell down my holdings… Despite good profitability and strong Balance Sheet over the past couple of years, Share Price had been unable to rise due to fears of CEO selling… Headwinds have appeared in the horizon, with China slowdown + Oil Price plunge causing US recovery to stutter… Good for me to have more free cash to tap on new opportunities… UMS had been steady as a rock aro 50ct and my large stake ended up as a Blessing in Disguise… mitigating the -14% decline in STI last year and this year's 7-10% drops…

Sell @ $0.52, $0.525

Contra off a recent buy and sell a previous Q bet for Yield Rotations Play… 😀

Buy @ $0.51

Make a bet that coming Q3 results will be good… worst case, Div = 1ct ought to be mainatined and provide some share price support… 😀

Results were announced after mkt closed… EPS = 1.99ct, much better yoy (1.27ct) but last year was not a good Q… On qoq, only slightly better, vs 1.93ct… Not up to my expectation, when compared to Industry BB… but, according to their release, it's as per their guidance of a flat Q3… Forward guidance for Q4 is weaker…

9M EPS = 5.67ct ; FCF = 5.24ct. As long as Q4 stays positive for both EPS & FCF, the likelihood of maintaining Div = 3ct for Q4 is good… Shares Buy-Back still MIA…

Buy @ $0.51

Finally buying some back, was thinking the Buy Q was too large to have a chance… but dropped to a low of $0.50 (in Q but didn't get any) after getting done… China big drop + Grexit high possibility is creating bigger fears today… 😀

Q2 results were on 6-Aug last year, good chance it's the Blackout period now ie no Buy Back but also no Sell-Down… BB = 1.04 (Apr) & 0.99 (May) but more importantly, there was a >10% increase in Bookings & Billings compared to Q1 monthly figures. If UMS results are similar to Industry-wide figures, that'd be good…

Sell @ $0.535, $0.54

Contra off my 2 recent batches. Share price was strong today even tho' STI was weak (-30 mostly). There's a possibility that Shares Buy Back (just cleared EGM recently and Blackout lifted with the announcement of Q1 results on 8-May)  may have started (made a mistake in original post as forgot to  x 1.05 and had wrongly concluded the price rise can't be due to Shares Buy Back) as the Max Avg Buy Price is calculated by the formula of 105% of Average 5-Days Closing Prices.

• 5-May (Tue) : $0.52
• 6-May (Wed) : $0.515
• 7-May (Thu) : $0.505
• 8-May (Fri) : $0.510
• 11-May (Mon) : $0.53

Max Average Share Buy Back Price = $0.542

With 12-May (Tue) = $0.54, Max Average Share Buy Back Price = $0.546

Q1 results were out last Friday after mkt closed. Revenue & Profits were as per guided in the previous Q ie improved, altho' it was lower on a yoy basis. The expected 1ct div was maintained (FCF = 1.49ct).. The forward guidance is 2H15 is now expected to see better biz, instead of 1H15. If I were to read between the lines, I'm guessing that Q2 will at best be flat, with the possibility of weakness… AMAT results were also out, looked flat for SSG segment. Let's continue to monitor BB Ratio… 😀

Buy @ $0.505

STI -27 for the day. Many stocks are now cheaper. Was eyeing to collect back more at $0.515 or $0.51 but decided to Q lower due to mkt weakness. Results should be out soon and forward guidance from last Q, was quite positive for 1H15. BB had also stayed healthy above 1. Let's see… 😀

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Sell @ $0.57

One bid up, sell some more… 😀

Sell @ $0.565

Continue with my plan to reduce my stake. After the last sell @ $0.565, it dropped back to $0.55-$0.555. The next few days will be interesting,

• 30-Apr : EGM on Share Buy Back Mandate
• 5-May : xd for 3ct div
• 8-May (?) : Q1 Results / End of Blackout Period

Yesterday, AMAT & Tokyo Electron announced they'll not go ahead with their merger plan (first annc in Sep-13) due to anti-trust objections by US govt. AMAT dropped -8% + last night but for UMS (AMAT is their main customer), this news ought to be neutral as any benefit / detriment from such a merger would have taken years before we know what it'd be..

Anyway, I need to pare down as part of my risk mgmt… My huge stake had been a drag on my portfolio for the past year and CEO continue to behave in a manner (selling down his stake) that creates uncertainties… which is risk to me… 😀

Sell @ $0.565

Continue to sell slowly with every bid up. It has hit my target range of 55-57ct during the 'Andy-safe' Blackout period ahead of my expectation and I'm hopeful that the positive mkt condition (STI >3500, 7yrs' high, perhaps due to positive news release by MAS?) plus possibly their proposal for Shares Buy Back mandate may provide greater momentum to push it towards 57-59 (last hit in Dec-14) or hopefully, 60+…  😀