Category: UMS

Buy @ $0.565

After clearing some of my extras recently, decided to buy back a bit. Critical dates 7-Oct (xd for 1ct div) & Q3 Results (13-Nov last year). BB ratio will be released tomorrow 6am but am not expecting much reaction for UMS as it's fundamentally strong and current under-valued situation is due to lingering fears created by CEO sell-down (last time it happened, it took aro' 2yrs for mkt to gain confidence to buy up again…..) 😀

Buy @ $0.56

Only partially done, still have some ammo to buy more as I have not fully covered back my recent sells…. 😀

Buy @ $0.575

Results were out yesterday. Div = 1ct maintained. Revenue & Profit lower q-o-q & y-o-y and was below my expectation  The data from semi.org was rather positive for the Industry for the Q, so, it came as quite a surprise to me to see UMS reporting weaker results.

Vol = 7,307,000 ; Range $0.565 to $0.605, Close $0.57, -4.5ct.

The huge volume presents a possible risk that CEO is back to the market as Blackout is over.

Anyway, I still decided to buy back some (replace one batch I'd sold) as fundamentals remains ok. Possible other downside will be due to lower FCF (Free Cash Flow) = 0.9ct (lower than 1ct Div) for the Quarter, although it's still healthy for 1H (good FCF in Q1). The forward statement is also negative for Q3 (expect lower Revenue  Profit as it is seasonally their weakest) but positive for Q4.

Sell @ $0.615

Jump-Q at 5pm matching. Used Creative Accounting to sell one batch (profitable) + one batch (losses) = small profits. My current Unit Cost = 61.4ct (Excl. Div).

Quarterly results will be out any time soon. Prices had gone up from the lows of ~$0.535. Altho' I'm confident that EPS will be good, plus Div = 1ct will be maintained or even increased, the key risk is our trigger-happy CEO who'd sold down from $0.7+ levels. As I'm very heavily vested, I decided not to be too greedy and pare down my stake… still very substantial and I'll likely pare down further at higher prices… 😀

Sell @ $0.57, $0.575

Sudden strong buying today. Vol = 5,120,000 ; Range $0.56 to $0.58. Buyer CP = Phillip

It's currently the Blackout period now, with Q2 results expected soon (6-Aug last year). Perhaps, Blackout + Good BB data (released on 22nd 6am) had embolden bigger players? Or, Phillips is collecting a bigger chunk for their house account? Anyway, take profit first… I have more to sell (the original cheaper ones), if prices do continue to trend up… 😀

Buy @ $0.5525

Seller CP = Phillip, not the broker for CEO, but, sure have a lot to sell… 😀

Buy @ $0.565, $0.56

The rise last Friday may have been due to the release of the semi.org BB data, which I'd forgotten to check. BB = 1 may not seem very optimistic but both 'B's stays around US$1.4Bil, which is comforting to me. In fact, I was afraid UMS share price may not fall back to my target levels… However, the moment I Q'd at $0.565, someone cleared it with a 300-500 lots sell (I checked CP = DMG, not likely to be Andy as his should be UOBKH). Quite scary though to see my $0.56 Q also being done… 😀

 

 

Sell @ $0.57

Take profit on the single batch that's profitable. With the fears lingering in the market after the Double-A (Andy – CEO & AMAT) sell-off, I'm not expecting prices to recover to recent highs (the same thing happened in 2012 and that was the original reason I was hesistant to buy and hold..but which I unfortunately overcome when the industry cycle went up…).

My expected "safe" period to go for longer term hold would be around 6-Jul to 6-Aug ie estimated Blackout period based on last year's Q2 results (6-Aug-13). From now till then, better to go for short term trades or shorts… 😀

Buy @ $0.55

Prices continued to drop… Today, I waited for a while before I bought. Looking at the huge volume, very likely, CEO or AMAT is continuing with their selling… Feels like closing down sale… not GSS… 😀

Mkt data,

• Vol = 18,404,000
• Range = $0.545 to $0.58
• Close = $0.565

After mkt closed, SGX Annc on more selling by CEO…6,000,000 @ $0.6257 on 10-Jun… I won't be very surprised if he's planning to quit… perhaps sick and tired after running the biz since he started it after leaving college… Be prepared for the worst.. although fundamentally, it's getting more and more attractive by the day..

 

 

Buy @ $0.665, $0.65, $0.64, $0.635, $0.61, $0.605, $0.595

After a one day respite, the selling started again today in earnest. OSK-DMG released a very negative report with a SELL recommendation and target price reduced to $0.47 (from $0.88 on 9-May). This is based on,

• Selling by AMAT + CEO
• Cloudy outlook for Margins (based on their channel investigation)

Mkt data for today,

• Vol = 15,955,000
• Range = $0.595 to $0.685
• Close = $0.595

The Buyer CP comes from all over… Looks like OSK-DMG (plus perhaps other analysts) have successfully started a mass selling stampede by just tagging their main reasons on the majority shareholders' (CEO + AMAT) recent selling…  Looks like all set to drop towards their target price of $0.47… I don't see any "daylight" till next Q results (6-Aug last year) proves the analysts wrong (on the margins) or CEO + AMAT stops their selling …

Darn scary… Feels like Titanic is sinking and it's everyone for themself … 😀