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Buy @ $0.945
Itchy fingers… A new stock to my current portfolio. I previously sold at huge losses my entire stake when I was short on cash and it didn't look like their Brazil Niteroi Yard was going to stop bleeding…
Their Q114 results were released just before mkt opened. EPS = 1.61ct was lower than last Q = 1.95ct. Share price had previously climbed quickly from 87.5ct (I sold all mine before that at lower prices..) to a high of $1+ after the last results when EPS improved from Q3 = 1.36ct as many were betting on a continued recovery. So, I guess the market must have been caught by surprise by the lower EPS… Yesterday, it closed at 99ct and this AM, it quickly dropped to a low of 94ct…
So, why buy?
A closer examination of the profit breakdown shows that despite a lower Revenue (q-o-q), the profit was actually higher from Gross to Operating to PBT. What caused the lower EPS q-o-q was the taxation. For Q4, there was also what looked like Tax writeback as Net Profit ended up higher than PBT.
My conclusion is Q1 was actually showing continued improvement and very likely, we have seen the worst of Brazil Niteroi Yard problems.. In addition, it was stated that for Niteroi Yard, 1 vessel had been delivered in April and another will be delivered in May, ie for Q2 (Jun), the overload would be greatly eased.. Further, with the World Cup in June, here would be lesser competition for Labour as facilities construction would have been completed by then
Logical?
On top of that, Q1 also saw a big increase in their Order Book.
Anyway, just a small bet and can be short term… 😀
Sell @ $0.825
Decided to sell my entire stake with huge realised losses… But, resulted in a slight improvement to Net Worth as it was marked to market at end-Jan price of $0.82 in my spreadsheet… Small consolation…
With US -2% last night, STI was also impacted. Many stocks were -ve but Vard was surprisingly strong, dropping not as much in %. My Buyer CPs were locals – CIMB & MayBank Kim Eng. IIRC, both brokerages have analysts which covers Vard quite extensively. Looking at the buying support today, I won't be very surprised if their analysts had prior positive insider info from their regular engagement with Vard mgmt… An optimistic scenario would be Vard Brazil Niteroi yard have seen the worst and for Q4, EPS will show continued improvement… possibly >2ct?? plus a Div of 1ct++??
Anyway, I made the decision to switch to other stocks… May get vested again if it drops below 80ct.. depending on alternatives, as always.. 😀
Buy @ $0.885
Early in the AM, there was a quick sell-down to $0.875. It was quickly supported and I missed buying when I put in @ $0.88. The $0.885 ones were done during 5pm matching when I noticed a big enough sell Q.
Looks like it's losing favour heading towards Q3 end. Perhaps there's a fear of Brazil yard problem continuing to drag down profits… 😀
Sell @ $0.925, $0.94
Bigger than usual Vol = 12,434,00 ; Range = $0.885 to $0.945, Close @ $0.925, +3.5ct. Very likely due to the rather positive report by MayBank Kim Eng which was released yesterday. They even did a compilation of the forward statements from Vard's end customers and mostly, positive on OSV demands.
Still, I have decided to take profit on my profitable ones as market continues to have much uncertainties and fears – Syria, QE3 Easing, India/Indonesia currency weakness,… Will buy back if it slips below 90ct. 😀
Buy @ $0.965
Did a Jump-Q at 5pm…
They issued a Profit Guidance last Friday. Profits will be lower than market consensus due to bigger than expected losses in Brazil. If I read correctly, Q2 will still be profitable but the recovery momentum seen in Q1 (EPS = 3.4ct) will most likely be lost and EPS will most likely be lower than even Q412 (EPS = 2.31ct) where I'd expected to have been the bottom… Try for short term play (smal tikam only) as -12.5ct with huge Vol = 14,114,000, sounds bad…only 1s & 4s… Perhaps Traders & Shortists at work… 😀