Posts

Posted on

Singtel @ $3.52

Buy @ $3.52

Add back to my holdings as part of David's Yield Rotation Strategy.  😀

FY14 (Mar) results ought to be aro' mid-May (14-May last year) and Div was 10ct. With 9M EPS better than last year, the probability of maintaining the 2H Div is high, unless they cut the Payout Ratio (~76% last year).

Using last years data,

  • PE = 15.99 / 15.49 (latest 4Qs)
  • Yield = 4.773%

Comparison with other 2 TELCOs,

  • Starhub @ $4.04
    • PE = 18.79 ; Yield = 4.95%
  • M1 @ $3.39
    • PE = 19.48 ; Yield = 6.195% / 4.1% (if exclude Special Div)

Current share price weakness could be due to a combination of Crimea fears + Overbid for World Cup broadcast rights.

Posted on

STEng @ $3.79

Buy @ $3.79

Add back to average down my higher priced ones. Put in before mkt open to try for a Jump-Q but opened at $3.79. Mine wasn't done and I was too slow to remove from Q and got done within a few minutes. With Crimea referendum fears (to join Russia) this Sunday, mkt was weak. Range $3.77 – $3.80, close $3.79. Very likely, I'll get a chance to average down further tomorrow, a Friday… 😀

Posted on

STEng @ $3.78, $3.82

Buy @ $3.78 ; Sell @ $3.82

Did a Jump-Q during pre-open to buy back some shares. Contra off when it hit my short term target price. A rare intraday contra… without intending to day trade… I follow the philosophy of buying for long term ie. make sure fundamentals are strong and prices not over-valued but no quarrels against short term profits especially for non-growth stocks …

Can also treat it as an extension to David's Yield Rotation Strategy, a sub-nesting or micro intra rotation class… ðŸ˜€

 

Posted on

Popular Hldgs @ $0.225

Buy @ $0.225

Q3 results is expected by 15-Mar (last year) and I have decided to buy back some during their Blackout Period. No, I'm not expecting good results but at current prices, I'm betting it'd factored in bad results, similar to Q2 drop in EPS of ~-0.2ct. My thoughts about the EPS,

  • Most Likely = aro' 1.2ct
  • Hopeful = 1.2 to 1.4ct (similar to past 4 years)
  • Dream >1.4ct
  • Nightmare <1 ct (Not impossible as they may do a write-down for 8Raja since they'd been unable to sell…)

As I'd sold down my holdings quite substantially previously, I'll likely be buying more on any price weaknesses. At $0.23 close,

  • PE (latest 4Qs) = 9.43 (can go above 10 if Q3 EPS < 1.2ct)
  • Yield = 4.35%
  • Cash = 12.4ct / share or Net Cash (minus Debts) = 7.1ct / share

Property continues to be a drag and is not expected to provide any lift to EPS soon… My estimate on a potential write-down for 8Raja,

  • As of Q2, 'Properties Held for Sale' = $53,587,000
  • Assuming a 10% Write-Down
    • => $5,358,700 or 0.66ct / share
    • => Reduction of 0.66ct to EPS
    • => Previous Years' Q3 EPS = 1.2ct to 1.4ct becomes 0.54ct to 0.74ct

So, a potential shock for Q3 results… but, a non-cash item.. 😀

Still, mkt will whack down share price if that happens…

 

Posted on

STEng @ $3.8236

Sell @ $3.82, $3.83

Sold a fair bit of my holdings, some at a loss (but Net Profit when balanced by the profitable ones). I didn't quite like the reduction of Dividend Payout from 90% to 80% for FY13 and a further reduction to 75% for FY14. This translates to a Yield of <4% unless prices drop below $3.75. With such a low yield, I'd expect some growth to make it a feasible buy and hold stock. I have therefore decided to adopt a wait and see approach ie. wait for their Quarterly results to show the growth… I may buy back again to average down the higher priced ones, to sell before it xd… 😀

Posted on

UMS @ $0.65

Buy @ $0.65

Looking at the volume, it looked like CEO is not selling any today… Decided to buy back some to partially cover what I'd sold in the AM.

New past-time, CEO-watching… 😀

Posted on

UMS @ $0.66

Sell @ $0.66

Contra off the cheaper ones I bought using a different account @ $0.6467. 😀

The fears & uncertainty created by CEO selling 5,976,000 shares @ $0.65 on 3-Mar  is likely preventing it from going higher… for now. If only he'd not sold, I was expecting prices to head towards $0.80 to $1 (FY13 Div = 6.5ct, inclusive of 1.5ct Special Div equates to a Yield of 6.5% plus this payout is supported by EPS) since biz is on the upcycle and at least for the next 6mths.

For the short term, I plan to be trading and react accordingly, depending on CEO action or inaction…

Posted on

HLFin @ $2.693

Sell @ $2.69, $2.70

Sold most of my recent buys. Hit just below my min. target of $2.70 to $2.75. Although there's a very high chance it'll move up higher as it approaches xd date, due to the Quas-Bond like behaviour of Yield Stocks, time also means opportunity cost. Any drop back to $2.67 may trigger a buy… 😀

 

NRA Report which my broker sent to me after I sold…