Posts

Posted on

Starhub @ $3.49

Buy @ $3.49

Recent Q4 results were below mkt expectation. There was a run-up in share price from a recent low of $3.24 on 28-Jan, closing at $3.80 on 16-Feb (day of Q4 results announcement). Looking at EPS vs FCF data for the past year,

  • FY15 : 21.5ct vs 12.5ct
  • Q415 : 4.7ct vs 1.1ct
  • Q315 : 6.9ct vs 8.1ct
  • Q215 : 5.7ct vs 6.0ct
  • Q115 : 4.3ct ; -2.7ct
  • FY14 : 21.5ct vs 19.3ct

On hindsight, the improving EPS & FCF in Q2 & Q3 must have led to a heightened mkt expectation of a further improvement in Q4, thus the share price run-up… However, when Q4 results saw a drop in EPS and big drop in FCF, mkt reacted swiftly with a sharp 24ct drop on 17-Feb and another 5ct today…

My lowest priced ones are at $3.84… treat it as averaging down… The main positive is they have guided for a continued 20ct Div for FY16… I'm betting they have a better visibility of FCF improving in the coming Qs… else, current Cash lvl is good enough for another 10ct/share payout… perhaps good enough to cover for 4Qs of shortfall in FCF… Their CAPEX ought to be lowered by their sale of a part stake in their MediaHub project… 😀

 

Posted on

Singtel @ $3.76

Sell @ $3.76

Contra off…  Switch to Starhub… 😀

TELCOs mkt price data today,

  • M1 : Close $2.52, -5ct (-1.9%) ; Range $2.48 – $2.59 ; Open $2.59
  • Singtel : Close $3.76, +7c6 (+1.9%) ; Range $3.73 – $3.79 ; Open $3.78
  • Starhub : Close $3.49, -7ct (-2%) ; Range $3.49 – $3.60 ; Open $3.56
  • STI : Close 2657.57, +43.78 (+1.67%)

TELCOs financial ratio,

  • M1 : PE =13.19 ; Yield = 6.07%
  • Singtel : PE = 15.84 ; Yield = 4.65%
  • Starhub : PE = 16.23 ; Yield = 5.73%

Note that Singtel is the most diversified regionally and in product segments. Payout Rate is ~75%. At the other extreme, M1 is the least diversified and most likely to be affected by a potential 4th TELCO… 

 

Posted on

SingTel @ $3.68

Buy @ $3.68

Replacement for a recent sell… treat it as a "Short" strategy… Closed $3.69, -11ct (-2.9%) ; Range $3.65 – $3.79 ; Open $3.78. It'd been creeping up recently after a flat Q3 yoy where EPS = 5.98ct vs 6.09ct. Was quite surprised to see it going up, that was the trigger to sell some.

Yesterday's price + and today's price – may be in tandem with Starhub… Starhub reported a disappointing (for me) Q4, after a previous strong Q3… Mkt may hv bought on high expectations and thus got dumped today… Starhub -24ct (-6.3%) today… The good news is, Div = 5ct / Q guided for Starhub for FY16… 😀

Posted on

UOB @ $17.39

Buy @ $17.46, $17.32

How quickly mkt changed! Range $17.10 – $17.72, Open $17.68 ; Close $17.20. OCBC reported a "good" set of results before mkt open and prices went in opposite directions… With STI finally -30.79 @ 2613.79, prices closed moderately lower

  • DBS : Closed $13.60, -6ct (-0.6%) ; Range $13.53 – $13.83 ; Open $13.80
  • OCBC : Closed $7.78, +1ct(+0.1%) ; Range $7.75 – $8.08 ; Open $8.02
  • UOB : Closed $17.20, -61ct (-3.4%) ; Range $17.10 – $17.72 ; Open $17.68

Looks like I sold a winner to buy a loser…:D

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.205

Sell @ $1.205

Sold my last lower priced batch at a loss… even after DPU = 2.51ct (to be paid on 29-Feb), there's still a small loss… altho' the losses become even smaller as I'd elected for DRP @ $1.1456… This trade is meant to leverage on the Arbitrage Opportunity of the DRP discount… At $1.205 mkt price, this is a 5.185% premium to the DRP price, which is more than enough to cover all transactions costs… I'll still buy back on dips as FCOT is one of my target REITs… 😀

Posted on

UOB @ $17.48

Buy @ $17.48

As posted earlier, a switch from OCBC to UOB… Results were out in AM…

  • Q415 Net Profit slightly better (0.3%) vs Q414 but FY15 -1.2% vs FY14
  • NAV $17.84 vs $17.49 (Q315) ; RNAV $20.56 vs $20.13 (Q315) ie Improved
  • Dividends FY15 = 35ct (Final) + 20ct (Special Anniversary) + 35ct (Interim) vs FY14 = 55ct (Final) + 20ct (interim)

STI closed @ 2644.58, +36.68.

  • DBS @ $13,68, +27ct (+2%) ; Range $13.32 – $13.87 (Open @ $13.40)
  • OCBC @ $7.77, +13ct (+1.7%) ; Range $7.56 – $7.89 (Open @ $7.66)
  • UOB @ $17.81, -4ct (-0.2%) ; Range $17.40 – $17.88 (Open @ $17.70)

The price data may not be too useful as UOB (-22.33%)  had been dropped lesser than DBS (-36.07%) & OCBC (-24.34%) over the past year since I'd monitored. Mkt fears were higher on DBS, OCBC, UOB in this order on their exposure to the slowing China mkt.

I'll be basing my Buy / Sell Price on the NAV from now… 😀

Posted on

OCBC @ $7.78

Sell @ $7.78

Just BreakEven for this lots… Left one very highly priced batch… Decided to switch to UOB as OCBC +ve & UOB -ve….  treat it as an Arbitrage between banks… 😀

Posted on

OCBC @ $7.69

Sell @ $7.69

My lowest buy became profitable… All the banks were +ve, 2-3%… likely due to BT article today (shared by TC)… Banks reporting kick off tomorrow AM with UOB… UOB has the least exposure to China, but will be a good reference… 😀

Posted on

Singtel @ $3.74

Sell @ $3.74

+16ct today… Sold at a loss but after adding the 6.8ct div rx on 13-Jan, there's a small profit… With mkt being so volatile, I better take profits whenever possible to raise free cash for recycling… 😀