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A-HTrust @ $0.69

Buy @ $0.69

During the last minute, was alerted by LS that it was being done at 69ct. But, during 5pm matching, it was mostly steady at 69.5ct. Decided to buy some to avg up and was pleasantly surprised to see it matched at 69ct… must be a last second thing as I was watching and didn't see it change… 😀

But, note that A$ had weakened -6.3% fm end-Sep to end-Mar ie. 2H DPU will be impacted. My projected 2H DPU is 2.785ct to 2.84ct, taking into account only A$ impact (only 63% by NPI are Australia assets and my more conservative estimate may allow for lower occupancy in other countries' assets, especially Singapore) and CCS unwinding, giving a minimum annualised Yield of 8% and increasing to 9% for next HY when CCS unwinding impact is removed for the whole HY.

Posted on

UMS @ $0.565

Sell @ $0.565

Continue to sell slowly with every bid up. It has hit my target range of 55-57ct during the 'Andy-safe' Blackout period ahead of my expectation and I'm hopeful that the positive mkt condition (STI >3500, 7yrs' high, perhaps due to positive news release by MAS?) plus possibly their proposal for Shares Buy Back mandate may provide greater momentum to push it towards 57-59 (last hit in Dec-14) or hopefully, 60+…  ðŸ˜€

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ARA @ $1.635

Buy @ $1.635

Hopefully, the big seller is mostly done… add to bring down my average to $1.648… 😀

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SembMarine @ $3.04

Sell @ $3.04

Take a huge loss here to reduce my exposure. FY14 results were good but longer term, there're uncertainties due to huge Oil Price drop and the on-going corruption investigation in Brazil. A possible strategy is to treat this as a "short" and to buy back again if it drops ~10ct. But, even with the huge realised loss, my portfolio asset value is a bit more positive as SembMarine is +6ct vs last close… 😀

Posted on

King Wan @ $0.305

Buy @ $0.305

Buy back some to replace those I'd sold previously. No, KTIS & Sugar Prices had not recovered to previous levels. I doubt that their M&E core biz will show positive surprise as Property mkt is still under pressure. But, I'm buying ahead of the 2H (Mar) results likely due in May + it's now 1ct lower than my Sell Price. For last year, Div = 1.5ct… Still, at the right price, I may take profit in the short term… ðŸ˜€

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UMS @ $0.5518

Sell @ $0.55, $0.555

Hit my min tgt of $0.55 and right on the dot of my expected beginning of "Andy-safe" Blackout period. But, the price strength for the last 3 sessions may be due to yesterday's SGX Annc of a Shares Buy Back proposal (to be voted during EGM on 30-Apr) ie 2 days prior of insiders' trading…. I wonder what CEO is trying to do… Perhaps he sells down to $0.50, then Shares Buy-Back buys back to $0.55, then cycles repeats…  Nevertheless, would be good for shareholders to hv this providing some price support fm Andy's sell-down… 😀

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.505

Sell @ $1.505

Q'd almost the whole day but looks like there's a serious collector around, putting in big blocks at the $1.50 Buy Q… Looks like it'd be hard for me to buy back cheaper… 😀

Posted on

Portfolio – Q115

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q115 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

UMS

65.8%

ARA Asset Mgt

Frasers Com Tr

5-10%

Genting Sing

26.6%

Sembcorp Marine

King Wan

KingsmenCreative

< 5%

F & N

4.2%

Ascendas-Htrust

Cash

  

3.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3447.01, +2.43% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +5.24% (Cost) / +6.68% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : +0.70% (Unrealised) + 0.18% (Realised) + 0.32% (Div) = +1.20%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 0.00% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 0.18% (Stocks Bought in 2015)

So, +1.20% vs +2.43% (STI), worse than STI… I continue to underperform the STI… since FY14… L

For Q115, I finally decided to reduce my stake in UMS. Despite declaring a better than expected Div for FY14, the CEO continued to reduce his holdings (now reduced to 20.01%). It's a huge dilemma for me as P/L is healthy, Industry remains strong (BB remains >1), Balance Sheet is Healthy (Cash / Share Improved from 7.68ct to 7.87ct) for a PE = 9.12 & Yield = 11.321% (9.434% if Exclude Special Div). But, I have finally decided that having a too huge % of my portfolio in UMS is presenting me with a huge risk. As such, I plan to further reduce in April, during CEO Blackout Period (within 1mth of Q1 results – 8-May last year) as there'll be a better chance for prices to go up (before xd).

I have also substantially reduced my stake in King Wan. The main reason for my stake in King Wan is their holding in KTIS (listed in SET), which is in the Sugar Industry. As such, I have been tracking KTIS share price, Sugar prices & THB Exchange Rate. Unfortunately, Sugar prices had continued to remain weak and with that, KTIS share prices, although THB remains strong. King Wan core biz of M&E stays weak and adds to the risk. 2H will be in end-Mar and last year, Div = 1.5ct. I may buy some back before that.

I have increased my stake in ARA substantially. Prices had been weak due to sustained selling. I have computed and posted on kinv blog previously that ARA Q1 Earnings will be quite good. Let's hope there won't be any negative surprises due to my homework being not thorough enough…

At the macro level, Oil Price remains weak although there were sporadic recovery attempts due to fears of disruption caused by the war in Yemen. But, it looked set to stay weak as all storage tanks in US are now full ie Surplus Supply got nowhere to go… My SembMarine looked set to be a very long term hold if I plan to ride the cycle. SembMarine have the added problem of the Corruption investigation into Petrobas (Brazil)….

Other uncertainties are,

  • The problem of Greece (may be forced to exit EU)
  • US Rate Hike (likely aro' Jun but at a more gradual slope)

My likely strategy for Q2 will be to increase my level of free cash as market is likely to stay volatile and this will present opportunities.

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q414)

  • New Additions : A-Htrust
  • Increases : ARA, FCOT
  • Decreases : UMS, King Wan, Kingsmen
  • No Change : Genting, SembCorp Marine, F&N
  • No More : Starhill Global

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -1.04% : LMIR – Slightly weaken after +1.58% in Q414. Looks stable since Jun-14
  • AUD (Australia $) -3.31% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continue to worsen, after -5.07% in Q314 & -3.10% in Q414
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +3.51% : Saizen – Slight recovery, after -5.69% in Q314 & -5.23% in Q414