Buy @ $0.55, $0.545
Q1 results were out last night and I was impressed by the big jump in DPU,
- Q1 (Mar13) = 0.89ct
- Q4 (Dec12) = 0.74ct
- Q3 (Sep12) = 0.73ct
- Q2 (Jun12) = 0.79ct
- Q1 (Mar12) = 0.69ct
They had previously announced the acquisitions of 6 malls in Oct-12 using debts but that results in lower DPU on a Proforma basis. This appeared evident from the subsequent Q4 DPU. However, this time round, it’d appear that there’d been a positive accretion to DPU for Q1.
- Yield = 6.473% @ $0.55 (5th Highest)
- NAV = $0.5654 (now at slight discount ; only 4 REITs at discount)
- Gearing = 24.3% (2nd lowest REIT but was 9.3% before acquisitions)
All indicators look good. Main risk is FOREX & Political as assets are all in Indonesia.
So, with the above positive analysis, I was waiting early in the morning to Jump-Q with friends and family members. Unfortunately, matching was done at 8:58am and I ended up in the Buy Queue for $0.545. When the prices seems to be heading higher, I quickly grabbed some at $0.55. Subsequently, someone dumped in large Qty and my $0.545 ones also got done!
- Vol = 14,549,000
- Range = $0.545 to $0.555
- Open = $0.545 ; Close = $0.55
It looks like someone sure has a lot to sell!
Current intention is to hold for longer term unless I get spooked by new developments. 😀
12 May 13
Finally found the time to compile some data,
|
Q113 |
Q412 |
Q312 |
Q212 |
Q112 |
Q411 |
Q311 |
Q211 |
|
|
Gross Rental Income |
39,371 |
32,959 |
30,553 |
30,519 |
30,441 |
24,347 |
22,023 |
21,917 |
|
Net Property Income |
37,260 |
30,798 |
29,521 |
30,737 |
30,857 |
24,612 |
22,476 |
22,570 |
|
Distributable Amount |
19,619 |
16,159 |
15,848 |
17,121 |
15,008 |
11,421 |
11,494 |
11,864 |
|
Available Distribution per Unit (cents) |
0.89 |
0.74 |
0.73 |
0.79 |
0.69 |
0.53 |
1.06 |
1.09 |
|
Total Return For The Period Before Tax |
25,929 |
23,939 |
26,541 |
27,124 |
24,818 |
14,991 |
20,868 |
17,582 |
|
Other gains/ (losses) |
-1,382 |
1,896 |
5,208 |
1,252 |
459 |
-4,585 |
2,161 |
-1,173 |
|
Add back losses / Remove Gains |
27,311 |
22,043 |
21,333 |
25,872 |
24,359 |
19,576 |
18,707 |
18,755 |
|
Financial expenses |
-7,023 |
-6,518 |
-5,886 |
-2,503 |
-4,091 |
-3,160 |
-2,061 |
-2,252 |
|
Total Administrative Expenses |
-3,053 |
-2,602 |
-2,512 |
-2,533 |
-2,583 |
-2,201 |
-1,979 |
-1,906 |
What I’m looking at,
- Gross Rental Income : See the changes due to rental renewals / new acquisitions
- Net Property Income (NPI) : From Q312, they outsourced the property management (includes collecting fees – reflected in Gross Revenue in prior quarters). Net result is Net Property Income < Gross Rental Income
- Other gains / losses : The non-cash items, mainly due to their currency forward contracts which are added / deducted. Can be quite substantial from -$4.5M to +$5.2M. Can see the impact on DPU.
- Financial Expenses : Related to borrowings. Mainly Interest but can also include arrangement / commitment fees eg. Q112
- Total Admin Expenses : Related to AUM. See the rising trend as they acquire more assets
Have to look at above in the context of the Total Units Issued, Total Assets or Total Debts, depending on the row of interest
Comments
- The DPU = 0.89ct (Q113), which is a good +20% from the previous quarter of 0.74ct (Q412) looks sustainable going forward. Here, I looked at “Total Return For The Period Before Tax” and add back “Other gains / losses” as that ought to give a good picture of the recurring income ie. $27.3M (Q113) vs $22M (Q412).
- The “Other gains/ losses” figures can result in +/- 10% volatility to DPU in the worst case. Related to FOREX and includes Forward Contracts & Swaps
- The outsourcing of Property Management to a third party looks suspiciously to me like another source of income for their related parties as the net result is a swing from a previous ~$300k additional income to an additional expense of ~$2.1M. A total impact of ~$2.4M lower in income!
- Under Financial expenses, the extra couple of $M for arrangement / commitment fees is not small and is likely to happen every time they refinance their borrowings or take on new debts for acquisition