Buy @ $4.82, $4.80, $4.79
Kept dropping… Kept buying to average down.. 2H results will be out in May (14-May last year with Div = 15ct).
Time to do more studies….
First, the financials,
|
Period |
Q3 |
Q2 |
Q1 |
FY13 |
Q4 |
Q3 |
Q2 |
Q1 |
FY12 |
FY11 |
|
Revenue |
284 |
294 |
289 |
1,147 |
284 |
278 |
285 |
301 |
1,170 |
1,107 |
|
Op Profit |
25 |
29 |
28 |
128 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
130 |
136 |
|
PBT |
70 |
81 |
79 |
306 |
76 |
76 |
76 |
79 |
303 |
296 |
|
Net Profit |
62 |
72 |
70 |
274 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
71 |
272 |
261 |
|
NPM |
21.74% |
24.57% |
24.33% |
23.91% |
23.81% |
24.34% |
23.90% |
23.63% |
23.25% |
23.60% |
|
Cash |
462 |
466 |
629 |
523 |
523 |
430 |
432 |
575 |
498 |
581 |
|
EPS |
5.43 |
6.39 |
6.22 |
24.51 |
5.96 |
6.08 |
6.09 |
6.38 |
24.56 |
23.77 |
|
NAV |
$ 1.159 |
$ 1.169 |
$ 1.253 |
$ 1.177 |
$ 1.177 |
$ 1.106 |
$ 1.114 |
$ 1.213 |
$ 1.143 |
$ 1.194 |
|
Div |
– |
7 |
– |
22 |
15 |
– |
7 |
– |
21 |
30 |
NOTE : FY is end-Mar
Comments
-
Q3 EPS dropped due mainly to higher Staff Costs, Subcontract Material Costs
- Unless Q4 shows y-o-y growth, FY14 EPS is set to be lower than FY13 (my estimate 0.5ct to 1ct lower in worst case)
- If so, div may be reduced to 14 – 14.5ct (from 15ct) unless Payout Rate is increased
-
Cash = 41.46ct / share or 39.86ct (Less Debts of $18m)
- Negligible Debts
-
Yield = 4.583% ; PE = 19.58 (20 using latest 4Qs)
- Yield not great ; PE on the high side for a non-growth stock
Next, the Dividends,
|
Ex-Date |
Record Date |
Date Paid/Payable |
Particulars |
|
18 Nov 2013 |
20 Nov 2013 |
28 Nov 2013 |
SGD 0.07 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
23 Jul 2013 |
25 Jul 2013 |
07 Aug 2013 |
SGD 0.15 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
05 Nov 2012 |
07 Nov 2012 |
21 Nov 2012 |
SGD 0.07 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
23 Jul 2012 |
25 Jul 2012 |
10 Aug 2012 |
SGD 0.15 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
11 Nov 2011 |
15 Nov 2011 |
29 Nov 2011 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
26 Jul 2011 |
28 Jul 2011 |
11 Aug 2011 |
SGD 0.14 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
26 Jul 2011 |
28 Jul 2011 |
11 Aug 2011 |
SGD 0.1 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
16 Nov 2010 |
19 Nov 2010 |
01 Dec 2010 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
27 Jul 2010 |
29 Jul 2010 |
11 Aug 2010 |
SGD 0.13 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
13 Nov 2009 |
17 Nov 2009 |
30 Nov 2009 |
SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
29 Jul 2009 |
31 Jul 2009 |
13 Aug 2009 |
SGD 0.11 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2008 |
18 Nov 2008 |
28 Nov 2008 |
SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
22 Jul 2008 |
24 Jul 2008 |
05 Aug 2008 |
SGD 0.16 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2007 |
16 Nov 2007 |
28 Nov 2007 |
SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
24 Jul 2007 |
26 Jul 2007 |
07 Aug 2007 |
SGD 0.08 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
09 Nov 2006 |
13 Nov 2006 |
22 Nov 2006 |
SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
25 Jul 2006 |
27 Jul 2006 |
08 Aug 2006 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
25 Jul 2006 |
27 Jul 2006 |
08 Aug 2006 |
SGD 0.2 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2005 |
16 Nov 2005 |
25 Nov 2005 |
SGD 0.04 TAX EXEMPT |
|
27 Jul 2005 |
29 Jul 2005 |
10 Aug 2005 |
SGD 0.045 TAX EXEMPT |
|
10 Nov 2004 |
16 Nov 2004 |
26 Nov 2004 |
SGD 0.03 TAX EXEMPT |
|
28 Jul 2004 |
30 Jul 2004 |
11 Aug 2004 |
SGD 0.025 TAX EXEMPT |
|
28 Jul 2004 |
30 Jul 2004 |
11 Aug 2004 |
SGD 0.2 TAX EXEMPT |
|
11 Nov 2003 |
13 Nov 2003 |
28 Nov 2003 |
SGD 0.02 TAX EXEMPT |
|
16 Jul 2003 |
18 Jul 2003 |
31 Jul 2003 |
SGD 0.012 LESS TAX |
|
16 Jul 2003 |
18 Jul 2003 |
31 Jul 2003 |
SGD 0.013 TAX EXEMPT |
|
11 Nov 2002 |
13 Nov 2002 |
27 Nov 2002 |
SGD 0.02 LESS TAX |
|
10 Jul 2002 |
12 Jul 2002 |
26 Jul 2002 |
SGD 0.012 LESS TAX |
|
10 Jul 2002 |
12 Jul 2002 |
26 Jul 2002 |
SGD 0.018 TAX EXEMPT |
|
09 Nov 2001 |
13 Nov 2001 |
28 Nov 2001 |
SGD 0.015 LESS TAX |
|
12 Jul 2001 |
16 Jul 2001 |
27 Jul 2001 |
SGD 0.025 LESS TAX |
|
13 Nov 2000 |
15 Nov 2000 |
27 Nov 2000 |
15% LESS TAX |
Source : SGX
Background colour of above table,
- Pink – 1H Div
- Blue – 2H Div
- Yellow – 2H with Special Div
Cash Comparison for Q3 & Q4,
|
CASH |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Change |
|
FY14 |
$462m |
?? |
?? |
|
FY13 |
$430m |
$523m |
+$93m |
|
FY12 |
$388m |
$498m |
+$110m |
|
FY11 |
$459m |
$581m |
+$122m |
Note : Outstanding Shares = 1,114,571,358
Comments
- Q314 Cash is at a very similar level to Q311 when they last paid a Special Div = 10ct
- But, the Cash Increase from Q3 to Q4 had been tapering, from +122m in FY11 to +93m in FY13
Assuming Q314 to Q414 Cash Increase continues to taper , eg. Ball Park estimate to +$70m (Cash generated from Operations = $51.4m in Q3),
=> Estimated Q4 Cash = $462m + $70m = $532m
Further, assume SIAEC requires $320m Working Cash (estimated from FY11 Q4 = $581m less 24ct Div or $262m),
=> Cash Available for 2H Div = $532m – $320m = $232m or 20.8ct
=> Best Case 2H Dividend Scenario = 14ct (Final) + 6ct (Special)
Note : I have reduced the Estimated Final Div from 15ct to 14ct as FY14 EPS looks set to be lower than FY13.
Conclusion
- A Special Div is not impossible, but, it'll be lower than the 10ct of 2H11
- SIA is the majority shareholder with 78% and will likely be motivated to "milk" this "cow"
- The unknown is whether they have other plans for the excess cash eg. to expand into other airports with new JVs
In the worst case, Yield = 4.5% is the compensation for a longer term hold… Further, the Quasi Bond-like behavior of Dividend Yield Stocks will likely kick in soon ie. the expected 15ct Final Dividend will help to provide some cushion for any bigger drops … till xd. IMO, current sell down is either due to switching by Funds or someone with insider info of bad results…
Reference