Buy @ $3.17
Itchy fingers, add back to my portfolio after last Sell @ $3.13 on 24-Apr. Q4 Results will be out on 22-May, there should be price support as it starts to behave like a quasi-bond. Dividends vs EPS,
|
EPS |
Total Div |
Interim |
Final |
Special |
Cash(Q3) |
Cash(Q4) |
||||||
|
FY14 (Mar) |
?? |
?? |
5ct |
?? |
?? |
$355M |
?? |
|||||
|
FY13 (Mar) |
16.6ct |
15ct |
5ct |
6ct |
4ct |
$272M |
$406M |
|||||
|
FY12 (Mar) |
15.4ct |
26ct |
5ct |
6ct |
15ct |
$423M |
$472M |
|||||
|
FY11 (Mar) |
17.4ct |
17ct |
5ct |
6ct |
6ct |
$169M |
$304M |
|||||
|
FY10 (Mar) |
16.7ct |
13ct |
5ct |
8ct |
— |
$141M |
$196M |
|||||
Observations
- Interim Div = 5ct fm FY10
-
Final Div = 6ct fm FY11 + Special Div (Variable)
- When Cash Level is Low, Special Div Depends on EPS
- When Cash Level is High, Special Div Depends on EPS + Excess Cash
-
Fm FY10 to FY14, the MEDIAN Quarterly Operating Profit is $45M
- Ranges fm $31M to $58M with most within Range of $41M to $45M
- Allows me to do a Ball-Park Estimate of the Incremental Cash fm Q3 to Q4
-
On 20-Feb, they announced completion of $118M acquisition of a stake in PT Cardig
- If paid within Q4 (Mar), Q3 Cash drops fm $355M to $236M (lower than Q313 = $272M)
-
EPS Comparison
- 9M : 9M13 = 12.4ct vs 9M14 = 12.3ct
- Q3 : Q313 = 4.2ct vs Q314 = 3.8ct
Comments
-
Despite their calling off the $110M acquisition proposal for Singapore Cruise Centre on 12-May, the chances of a Special Div much higher than 6ct (Ball Park estimate is max 8.5ct if parent SIA is desperate for Cash) appears to be remote (assuming $118M had been paid for the Indo co acquisition)
- Note that UOBKH analyst is expecting a bigger Special Dividend
- My FY14 EPS is projected to be 16.1ct to 16.5ct and this may cap the Special Div to 3.5ct to 4ct (same as FY13)
- Estimated Range of Final Div = 6ct + 3.5ct to 8.5ct
Conclusion
In spite of the low possibility of a higher than 6ct Special Div (plus high possibility of only 3.5ct to 4ct), I'm still taking the risk to buy as there'll likely be good price support till xd date due to the quasi-bond behaviour. But, of course, no guarantee… 😀
Sell @ $3.21
Contra off as I was starting to have some misgivings… Jump-Q at 5pm matching and got lucky as it closed at 1-2bids higher than my expectations.
After buying due to itchy fingers syndrome, I went back to read their recent SGX Annc again, 2 of which made me change my mind,
-
Shares Buy Back
- This is one of the positives for me as it helps to provide share price support and stability, especially in times of mkt stress
-
Last Shares Buy Back was on 11-Mar ; 100,000 @ $3
- My perception was there were more recent Buy Back @ closer to $3.20…. Oops…
-
- Data was released on 22-Apr
-
Went to check Q3 Operating Data (20-Jan) vs Financials (11-Feb)
- Can do a good projection of Operating Profit as close co-relation
- Using this approach, Q4 Operating Profit will likely follow Q3 trend ie. weaker yoy
Due to the above reasons, I decided to contra off…. May come back again if fingers get itchy again…