Saizen @ $0.189

Buy @ $0.189

Big drop from $0.20 to $0.205 after their Q3 results last Friday (AM). Not a DPU payout quarter as they do semi-annual payouts.

Have only done a quick read. Looks like there'd been a big negative impact of the weakening JPY and some one-time expenses due to loan re-arrangement. Looking at just the NAV alone, it dropped from $0.27 to $0.25 (~-7.41%) last Q. But, now, looking at their "Statement of distributable income from operations",  it's very interesting to note that they have been deploying cash for loan principal repayment. By lowering the amount for Q313 (Mar), they'd been able to mitigate the additional expenses. My guess is that for next Q, it's highly possible to maintain the previous DPU = 0.66ct if they want to. Without that, my worst case guess is a drop to 0.6ct.

The other observation is that although Gearing had increased to 39% (from 31%), they do have JPY1.07Bil in Cash (down from JPY2.24Bil in Jun-12) at the Company level, which can be used for either Shares Buy-Back or acquiring more properties to improve on the earnings and DPU.

Looks like lots of uncertainty which can only mean volatility. Let's see if I can trade with this current buy. 😀

Leave a Reply