Portfolio – Q314

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q314 close,

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 

Summary

The STI closed at 3276.74, +3.451% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

• Size (Stocks Only) : +15.05% (Cost) / +3.81% (Market Value)
  
• Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -9.32% (Unrealised Losses) + 8.76% (Realised) + 4.61% (Div) = +4.05%
  
• Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 7.38% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.38% (Stocks Bought in 2014)
  

So, +4.05% vs +3.45% (STI), slightly better than STI. My portfolio is very top heavy on UMS & FCOT and a couple of bids change to the closing price can easily skew the performance. So, the performance figures may not be too useful….

For Q314, I continued to take profits for Neratel and is no longer vested. Neratel is set to report a good Q3, according to analysts who’d met up with the mgmt. However, I have my own reservations and will wait for the next Quarterly financials to see if it’s really going to become a Growth stock.

I have built up a large position in FCOT due to the following,

• Expectation of higher rental from Alexandra TechnoPark (Master Lease ended in end-Aug and the mkt passing rent is double that of the Lease agreement)
  
• Alexandra TechnoPark accounts for ~20% of Assets ie a Doubling of rental equates to 10% increase in DPU
  
  • For end-Sep, we’ll see only 1mth of increased earnings
    
  • Due to the staggered nature of lease renewal, we will not see a doubling of rent immediately, my ball park estimate is 30% to 50% higher
    
  • So, perhaps a 1% to 1.5% improvement to DPU for end-Sep Q followed by 3% to 5% for end-Dec, with positive improvements going forward as and when leases are renewed
    

FCOT looks set to be one of my longer term hold for both the 6%+ Yield and potential Capital Gains. Note that one potential negative is, there’s a good chance of Equity Fund Raising for new acquisitions as Gearing is on the high side.

As for UMS, I sold some of my extras and can now sleep better. The yield is very good @ 8.77%, if they maintain the 5ct / year total dividend. The key risk is the uncertainty generated by CEO huge sell-down. I will likely reduce my stake further on opportunity as it’s still a hefty slice of my portfolio.

Current market fears is focused on China slow down and US FED interest rate possibly increasing sooner (economic recovery appears to be on track). Will try to free up more cash before the next FED Mtg in end-Oct. For Q414, I may not be too active till end-Oct due to the school exams season. The school hols starts in mid-Nov ie. likely to be not too active again…

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q214)

• New Additions : SembCorp Marine, King Wan, Starhill Global, Singtel
  
• Increases : FCOT, Kingsmen, Genting
  
• Decreases : UMS, Saizen
  
• No Change : Forterra
  
• No More : NeraTel
  

 

Exchange Rates

• IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -0.11% : LMIR – Looks more stabilized with new President to be sworn in in Oct
  
• AUD (Australia $) -5.07% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Looks bad
  
• JPY (Japanese Yen) -5.69% : Saizen – Looks bad