Portfolio – Q118

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q118 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

Raffles Medical

73.0%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

M1

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

SingTel

  

  

King Wan

  

< 5%

SingPost

21.3%

  

F & N

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

  

SGX

  

Cash

  

5.7%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary
The STI closed at 3427.97, +0.74% from end 2017. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2017),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +2.13% (Cost) / -1.23% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2017 Mkt Value : -2.9% (Unrealised) + 0.82% (Realised) + 0.52% (Div) = -1.54%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : +0.39% (Stocks Bought before 2018) + 0.45% (Stocks Bought in 2018)

So, -1.54% vs +0.74% (STI), under-performed the STI… Becoming the norm in recent years!

For Q1, I continued to reduce my holdings in FCOT as planned. I’m expecting DPU to be impacted by Alexandra TechnoPark as it’ll take a while to fill the void left by HP + Australia assets, due to a stronger S$. This may be supported by a larger Capital component from their previous gains from the Hotel site. The recent Private Placement @ $1.48 is my benchmark price for now vs NAV previously and will re-evaluate again after the next results. A few trades were done on KIT, selling when it was at the higher 50s and buying back when it drop below the mid-50s, for a net increase in my holdings. Singtel continued to weaken due to impending 4th TELCO competition and Ihave increased my holdings here. As for SingPost, I took profits when prices strengthened and plan to buy back agin if it weakens. I’m expecting a mix of +ve and –ve from the upcoming results. The +ve would be a higher Q4 dividend payout but the –ve may be a weaker Q4 vs the unexpected strong Q3.

For Q218, I plan to free up more cash. Market had become very volatile due to US Trade War agendas. I’ll continue to reduce FCOT till I regain my confidence in their earnings. I’ll likely increase my holdings in KIT if prices stay weak, due to Basslink issues caused y Tasmania govt claims for compensation. Chances of a Basslink sale is unlikely for now, with this issue creating uncertainties. Other trades will be more of an opportunistic nature and not meant to be long term, with focus on Singtel, signpost, SGX,…

Portfolio Changes (vs Q417)

  • New Additions : SGX
  • Increases : KIT, Singtel
  • Decreases : FCOT, SingPost
  • No Change : RafflesMed, Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, Starhub, M1
  • No More : —

Exchange Rates (for Q118)

  • AUD (Australia $) -3.61% : AusNet, A-HTrust, Singtel, FLT – Continued to weaken this Q
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +4.45% : Turned into strength, a safe haven in times of uncertainty?
  • USD (US $) -1.95% : Continued to weaken
  • EURO +0.69% : Continued strength

Portfolio – Q417

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q417 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

Raffles Medical

77.0%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

M1

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

King Wan

  

  

SingPost

  

< 5%

SingTel

15.9%

  

F & N

  

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

Cash

  

7.2%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary
The STI closed at 3402.92, +18.13% from end 2016. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2016),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +12.07% (Cost) / +15.07% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2016 Mkt Value : 0.02% (Unrealised) + 1.26% (Realised) + 3.11% (Div) = +1.06%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : +0.67% (Stocks Bought before 2017) + 0.59% (Stocks Bought in 2017)

So, +4.4% vs +18.13% (STI), grossly under-performed the STI! Even worse if we include Dividends of ~3% for STI.

For Q4, I continued to stay inactive. As planned, I reduced my holdings in FCOT (continued strength with every sell) and bought SingPost to average down my high-priced ones. I also added some KIT and entered Singtel as prices weakened.

For Q118, I may become a bit more active but intend to stay cautious as STI hits above 3500. I’ll continue to reduce FCOT if it strengthens further towards NAV $1.58, although it seemed to be taking a breather for now. The expected Equity Fund Raising for new assets purchase by end-Jan may present an opportunity to buy / sell. I also intend to buy more SingPost, RafflesMed & Singtel on price weakness. SingPost ought to have seen the bottom in EPS and contributions from SPC completion will likely see a slight improvement in Q4, followed by a better improvement in Q1 with a full Q contribution. The risk is further write-downs from their US investments. As for RafflesMed, we may start to see some improvement in EPS from 2018, with the completion of Raffles Hospital Extension expected in end-17. BUT, any uptick in share prices is more likely to come after the completion of their China Hospital projects. I’m also watching KIT to accumulate more for long term hold. The attraction is the possibility of a sale in their Basslink stake, which is the current drag in their portfolio, with it’s high gearing.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q317)

  • New Additions : Singtel
  • Increases : KIT, SingPost
  • Decreases : FCOT
  • No Change : RafflesMed, Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, Starhub, M1
  • No More : —

Exchange Rates (for Q417)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -2.03% : LMIR – Continued to weaken, -7.21% for the year
  • AUD (Australia $) -1.97% : AusNet, A-HTrust, Singtel, FLT – Flipped to -ve this Q ; -0.14% for the year
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -1.77% : continued to weaken for Q4, -4.8% for the year
  • USD (US $) : -7.5% for the year!
  • EURO : +4.9% for the year!

Portfolio – Q317

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q317 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

Raffles Medical

80.3%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

M1

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

King Wan

  

  

SingPost

  

< 5%

F & N

11.1%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

Cash

  

8.6%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary
The STI closed at 3,3304.29, +14.7% from end 2016. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2016),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +10.25% (Cost) / +9.83% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2016 Mkt Value : -1.96% (Unrealised) + 0.53% (Realised) + 2.49% (Div) = +1.06%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : +0.34% (Stocks Bought before 2017) + 0.2% (Stocks Bought in 2017)

So, +1.06% vs +14.7% (STI), grossly under-performed the STI!

For Q3, I continued to reduce my transaction volume. I did some purchases to average down some of my losers – RafflesMed, SingPost & M1. I’m expecting the first two to be bottoming, in terms of EPS.

For Q4, I plan to stay inactive. I’ll be reducing FCOT as I’m expecting DPU to decline if HPS do not renew their lease at Alexandra TechnoPark or at least, prices ought to weaken before there’s any clarity. But, I’ll stay alert to buy back. I’ll also be looking to add to RafflesMed & SingPost, plus others in my portfolio.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q416)

  • New Additions : —
  • Increases : RafflesMed, SingPost, M1
  • Decreases :
  • No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, Starhub, KIT, FCOT
  • No More : —

Exchange Rates (for Q317)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -2.75% : LMIR – Continued to weaken, -6.82% for the year
  • AUD (Australia $) +0.86% : AusNet, A-HTrust, Singtel, FLT – Flipped to +ve this Q ; +1.87% for the year
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -1.6% : continued to weaken for Q3, -2.97% for the year. LDP called snap election in Oct. LDP win may lead to strengthening in JPY?

Portfolio – Q217

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q217 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

Raffles Medical

70.8%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

M1

  

  

King Wan

  

  

SingPost

  

< 5%

F & N

15.7%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

Cash

  

13.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary
The STI closed at 3,226.48, +12% from end 2016. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2016),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +4.71% (Cost) / +11.6% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2016 Mkt Value : 3.8% (Unrealised) + 0.52% (Realised) + 1.69% (Div) = +6.02%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : +0.34% (Stocks Bought before 2017) + 0.19% (Stocks Bought in 2017)

So, +6.02% vs +12% (STI), half the performance of STI!

For Q2, I continued to reduce my transaction volume. Many of my old favourites (Yieldstocks & REITs) are facing declining profits and despite lower prices, the Risk-Reward do not look attractive yet. Further, with STI hitting higher and not seeing the same for our economy, I continue to stay on the defensive.

For Q3, I plan to continue with my defensive approach and continue to sell into strength. My longer term hold counters continue to be KIT, FCOT and RafflesMed. REITs have done well in 2017 and I may be looking at some of the laggards eg CMT, SPHREIT, bearing in mind there must be a reason why they are lagging the rest eg. non-Growth.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q416)

  • New Additions : —
  • Increases : RafflesMed
  • Decreases : FCOT, M1
  • No Change : SingPost, Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, Starhub, KIT
  • No More : —

Exchange Rates (for Q217)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -1.7% : LMIR – Continued to weaken, -3.96% for the year
  • AUD (Australia $) -1.2% : AusNet, A-HTrust, Singtel, FLT – Still +1% for the year
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -1.86% : Weakened for Q2, -1.36% for the year. LDP losing seats, politically not as stable. But, CRT just rx G.O.

Portfolio – Q117

 

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q117 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

Frasers Com Tr

70.9%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

Raffles Medical

  

  

M1

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

King Wan

  

< 5%

SingPost

15.8%

  

F & N

  

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

Cash

  

13.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 3175.11, +10.22% from end 2016. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2016),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +4.59% (Cost) / +8.25% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2016 Mkt Value : 1.68% (Unrealised) + 0.35% (Realised) + 0.49% (Div) = +2.52%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : +0.26% (Stocks Bought before 2017) + 0.09% (Stocks Bought in 2017)

So, +2.52% vs +10.22% (STI), a lot worse than STI!

For Q1, I have reduced my transaction volume considerably. I am fearful of the Trump-fuelled rally as it may be nothing but based purely only on optimism. As such, my focus is more on defense, rather than offense. This may be one of the reason for my gross under-performance. But, the main reason is buying too many wrong stocks!

For Q2, I plan to continue with my defensive approach and continue to sell into strength. My longer term hold counters continue to be KIT, FCOT and RafflesMed but I will also continue to trade a bit with my extras.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q416)

  • New Additions : —
  • Increases : FCOT, SingPost
  • Decreases : RafflesMed, M1
  • No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, Starhub, KIT
  • No More : SGX, ARA

Exchange Rates (for Q117)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -2.22% : LMIR – Weakened, perhaps due to religious protests during Jakarta Governor Election?
  • AUD (Australia $) +2.23% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel, FLT – Continued to strengthen, missed buying A-HTrust & FLT at lower prices and pays Semi-Annual DPU for end-March Q
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +0.49% : Strengthened a bit

Portfolio – Q416

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q416 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

Raffles Medical

50.7%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

M1

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

5-10%

Frasers Com Tr

16.0%

  

King Wan

  

< 5%

F & N

16.2%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

  

SGX

  

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

  

SingPost

  

Cash

  

17.1%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2880.76, -0.07% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -19.6% (Cost) / -20.7% (Market Value) ; Refer to Cash Position
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 2.78% (Unrealised) -5.05% (Realised) + 2.88% (Div) = +0.61%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.41% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 1.36% (Stocks Bought in 2016)

So, +0.61% vs -0.07% (STI), better than STI but as it’s coming from accumulated dividends collected, it’s worse than STI + Div (3%+) eg STI ETF…. My cash position has reduced in this Q but stays at a significant level to provide me with the ammo to buy on dips.

For Q4, I continued to add more KIT as it got cheaper, likely due to Interest Rate Hike. For the time being, I’m not too worried as their biz in Utilities ought to provide some cash flow stability. My position in RafflesMed has also increased substantially as prices got lower, altho’ valuation is still not considered cheap, with PE ~35. FCOT is another stock I have increased my position significantly, with prices getting lower. This is likely also due to the impact of Interest Rate Hike. I’m betting the Yield of 7.79% ought to provide some cushion plus potentially S$ getting weaker vs A$ (~45% of NPI). As for M1, where I’d also increased my position, prices continued to weaken further due to the 4th TELCO threat. Calendar Q1 will be impt for making decisions, to see if Div = 8.3ct is maintained. The decision to reduce my SingPost hldgs due to fears of Div cut was justified when prices dropped after it happened. But, I have just bought back a bit ahead of the 5-Jan EGM for new shares to be issued to Alibaba @ $1.74.

For 2017, Singapore economy is expected to stay weak. Will have to spend time to look for stocks with substantial overseas biz and in countries where currencies are stronger. Trump will assume the US Presidency and with US stocks and USD having risen substantially, what’s next?? For Q1, I may buy REITs just for the reporting season, if it continues to face weakness due to Rate Hike.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q316)

  • New Additions : —
  • Increases : RafflesMed, FCOT, M1, KIT
  • Decreases : SingPost, SGX
  • No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, ARA, Starhub
  • No More : —

Exchange Rates (for Q416)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +2.28% : LMIR – Continued to increase, looking good +4.87% for ’16
  • AUD (Australia $) +0.51% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continued to increase, +1.53% for ’16
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -8.41% : Huge tumble after Trump won US Presidential Election and USD strengthened, but +5.5% for ’16

Portfolio – Q316

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q316 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

KingsmenCreative

21.8%

  

M1

  

5-10%

Kep Infra Tr

22.6%

  

King Wan

  

  

SingPost

  

< 5%

Raffles Medical

24.0%

  

F & N

  

  

SGX

  

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Starhub

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

Cash

  

31.6%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2869.47, -0.46% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -33.2% (Cost) / -33.5% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 6.06% (Unrealised) -5.28% (Realised) + 2.35% (Div) = +3.13%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.37% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 1.09% (Stocks Bought in 2016)

So, +3.13% vs -0.46% (STI), better than STI but the +ve was mainly due to accumulated dividends collected…. My cash position has increased as I have not been able to find many longer term stocks to invest in. It’ll likely stay that way till end-Dec to Jan when I start to take up bigger positions for the FY reporting season. Another reason for being less active is the kids’ exams season, followed by hols…

For Q3, I have added more KIT, with the intention for longer term yield. With Basslink back in operation, there ought to be better share price stability. I’m hoping they’ll sell Basslink as it’s a massive asset with massive debts. It’s also time for new acquisitions, likely funded by Rights & Debts. My SGX holding is also increased, more for the Double-xd bet. However, recent monthly figures don’t look good. The potential positive may come from their recent acquisition of the Baltic Exchange. I’m open to either selling or buying more, depending on the price. Having a Quarterly Payout Policy is a slight +ve for me. I have also added RafflesMed as a new stock to my portfolio. Altho’ it’s not cheap at PE closer to 40 and Yield slight above 1%, I have finally decided that I ought to buy and hold for longer term. Recent results have seen a much slower growth in EPS altho’ they do have quite a few projects on-going. I’ll likely accumulated more but I’m also inclined to do some trades.

Events to look out for in Q4, besides the Quarterly Reporting Season, are the 4th TELCO tender, where the process had started, with 3 interested parties (2 local and 1 Oz). The likelihood of a 4th TELCO is now very high and TELCO share prices had dropped back… again… I’ll likely continue to trade M1 & Starhub as the Yield are still attractive… if stuck… Singpost share prices had also recovered from it’s lows as the end-Oct deadline for Alibaba approaches… For me, the bigger risk is a potential dividend reduction. I’m more inclined to sell as and when BE is hit.

BREXIT, US Presidential Elections, FED Rate Hike,.. continues to be of interest…

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q216)

  • New Additions : RafflesMed
  • Increases : SGX, KIT
  • Decreases : SingPost, Starhub
  • No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, FCOT, M1, ARA
  • No More : A-HTrust, ComfortDelgro

  
 

Exchange Rates (for Q316)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +2.35% : LMIR – Continued to increase, looking good
  • AUD (Australia $) +3.49% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Turned positive, also for ’16
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +2.84% : Continued Strength, +12.91% for the year, main safe haven in times of volatility

Portfolio – Q216

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q216 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

SingPost

33.7%

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

M1

  

5-10%

King Wan

21.0%

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

< 5%

F & N

19.4%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

ComfortDelGro

  

  

SGX

  

  

Ascendas-Htrust

  

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

  

Starhub

  

Cash

  

25.9%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2840.93, -1.45% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -27.51% (Cost) / -27.41% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 5.30% (Unrealised) -5.38% (Realised) + 1.59% (Div) = +1.51%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.20% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 0.83% (Stocks Bought in 2016)

So, +1.51% vs -1.45% (STI), better than STI but the +ve was due to the sharp market rebound during the last few days…. I'm still keeping a good cash position which can be deployed when prices are attractive. In the meantime, I have transferred some to Maybank iSavvy for their much higher interest rate (vs 0.05% in POSB/DBS). iBanking allows instant max $50k inter-bank transfer using the FAST xfer option, so, it's quite convenient to manage.

For Q216, STI hit a peak of 2960.78 on 21-Apr-16 before sliding to a low of 2730.80 on 6-May. Next peak was only 2862.38 on 8-Jun, before dropping to a month low of 2729.85 on 27-Jun, due to BREXIT fears. A quick subsequent rebound of +120 points followed during the last 3 days of the Q.

Looking at the STI and listco results (mostly weaker) for 1H, I'm not too optimistic for FY16. US FED Rate Hike fears is now over-shadowed by BREXIT uncertainties. As UK need to invoke Article 50 to formalize the start of BREXIT, and the new PM is only expected in Oct, we're seeing the mkt returning to (and exceeding) normal during the last few days. We'll likely see wider swings leading towards Q4, altho' in the meantime, other fears may appear and dominate…

We're also eagerly waiting for 4th TELCO tender to open. In recent days, TELCOs had recovered from their lows and I have cleared most of my Starhub (mostly at a slight loss after Div collected) as it's price had appreciated more sharply. For M1, I'm still far from BE (even after Div collected) and with Yield still rather attractive, I'll likely hold till 1H Div is reported.

SingPost had also come under heavy sell-down, with one analyst setting a target price of $1.25… Due to their internal control failures, the Chairman and several Directors have stepped down. A new CEO had not been found… Alibaba 2nd agreement had been delayed twice, till Oct. For me, I'd been collecting for the Double-xd play and will likely hold on to most of it till then.

In my radar is SGX, which'll be reporting Q4 results, with Q4 Div = 13ct if they're able to maintain FY15 Div = 28ct. But, looking at 9M16, I'm prepared for a lower Div of aro 0.5ct – 1ct lower… UMS remains in my watch list even after selling my entire stake and having missed out on it's price strength… From one forum, someone mentioned that during their AGM, the CEO had stated that he's no longer selling down his stake… However, with their forward statement of a weaker Q2, Ill likely wait for their results first. BB, however, had been strong for May, with both 'B's being strong…

For Q3, I'll most likely be very selective and narrowly focused. I'll also have to be very nimble to react fast to any news as I'm not expecting the mkt to have any sustainable bull run.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q116)

  • New Additions : SGX
  • Increases : A-HTrust, SingPost, ComfortDelgro, KIT
  • Decreases : Starhub, FCOT, M1, ARA
  • No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, 
  • No More : UMS, Singtel, UOB

  

Exchange Rates (for Q216)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +0.43% : LMIR – Slight Strength, turned +ve for '16
  • AUD (Australia $) -2.82% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Turned weak, also for '16
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +10.36% : Continued Strength, main safe haven in times of volatility

 

Portfolio – Q116

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q116 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

M1

37.0%

  

Starhub

  

  

KingsmenCreative

  

5-10%

King Wan

24.9%

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

Kep Infra Tr

  

  

UMS

  

< 5%

F & N

15.5%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

  

Ascendas-Htrust

  

  

SingPost

  

  

UOB

  

  

SingTel

  

  

ComfortDelGro

  

Cash

  

22.5%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2840.90, -1.45% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -23.19% (Cost) / -24.44% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 3.31% (Unrealised) -3.88% (Realised) + 0.34% (Div) = -0.23%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -4.11% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 0.23% (Stocks Bought in 2016)

So, -0.23% vs -1.45% (STI), better than STI but still a loss…

Q116 had been an exciting roller coaster ride, with STI hitting a low of 2532.70 (-12.17%) on 21-Jan and staying low for the whole month of Feb, before a strong rebound in March, hitting a high of 2906.80 (+0.83%) on 18-Mar! China fears of economic slowdown was the dominating fear and had somewhat abated after great efforts by their govt. At the same time, US Fed had turned cautious and further rate hike had been pushed back, at least till June. Our regional ASEAN neighbours are now in the midst of a bull market which is mostly supported by strong economic data. Unfortunately, Singapore GDP growth is projected to remain flat at <2%.

For Q116, I’d been active as planned. With Singapore economy expected to be weak, I’d decided to focus on building up free cash when the market rebounded. UMS is no longer my top stock as I’d progressively been selling from 54 – 57ct. UMS Q4 results appeared to be very good and they’d maintained 2H Div = 3ct. Industry BB stays above 1, but the Bs are getting weaker, like last year. I’m expecting UMS Q1 to be weak, as I suspected some early income recognition for their superb Q4. Coupled with other reasons I’d posted previously, I have decided to pare down my stake considerably… perhaps to buy back on any weakness after it goes xd on 21-Apr.

TELCOs were one of my favourite trading stock in Q1. With the impending 4th TELCO license up for tender soon, share prices had been volatile. M1 & Starhub are hitting 6% Yield regularly and I’m expecting to enjoy that for at least a year before the 4th TELCO starts operation next year. This Yield will also have to cover for any further Capital Losses if Share Price drops further. One key thing to watch out for is their FCF as this provides a good indicator on the sustainability of their Div Payout. At the moment, FCF is actually quite weak…

In addition, some other Dividend Stocks which I’ll focus on are A-Htrust, FCOT, SATS, ComfortDelgro,… as per the justification posted previously. As for Banks, I don’t seem to have much affinity with them when it comes to making $$ and my priority will be lowered as I’d divested most of it.

For Q2, I’ll likely continue to be active till the end of the reporting season, with some extension towards the xd dates in May. After that, I may become passive… assuming I still have my war chest of Free Cash… waiting to strike only when market turns bearish…

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q415)

  • New Additions : A-HTrust, ComfortDelgro
  • Increases : Starhub, Kingsmen

  • Decreases : FCOT, UMS, Singtel
  • No Change : M1, King Wan, KIT, F&N, Genting, ARA, SingPost, UOB
  • No More : SMRT, IREIT, OCBC

 
 

Exchange Rates (for Q116)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -0.12% : LMIR – Slight Weakness
  • AUD (Australia $) +0.45% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Slight Strength
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +2.33% : Saizen – Continued Stregth

Portfolio – Q415

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q415 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

UMS

41.4%

   

M1

   

5-10%

KingsmenCreative

35.7%

   

Starhub

   

   

King Wan

   

   

Frasers Com Tr

   

   

Kep Infra Tr

   

< 5%

F & N

19.1%

   

Genting Sing

   

   

SingTel

   

   

SMRT

   

 

ARA

 
 

SingPost

 
 

IREIT

 
 

UOB

 

   

OCBC

   

Cash

   

3.9%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2882.73, -14.34% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +6.20% (Cost) / -3.71% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : -8.63% (Unrealised) + 1.90% (Realised) + 4.92% (Div) = -1.82%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -0.27% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 2.17% (Stocks Bought in 2015)

So, -1.82% vs -14.34% (STI), better than STI but still a loss…

Q415 remained tough for stocks…. Although STI recovered a fair bit in Oct-15 from the Sep-15 lows, it got hit by the Paris terrorist coordinated attacks in Nov-15 and fears of US Rate Hike finally arriving in Dec-15… My major activity in Q415 was collecting dividends… which helped to reduce my losses to <2% for the year….

For Q116, I’m hoping to become more active once I get re-attuned back to the market. With rate hike having become a reality and the weak Singapore economic outlook, it’s going to be a challenge… I’ll likely focus on REITs (refer to talkstock blog as I’ll be adding to the tables which’d appeared to show a 2-year cycle) & Yield Stocks (better able to recover from economic shocks).

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q315)

  • New Additions : Singtel, SingPost, OCBC
  • Increases : M1, Kingsmen, FCOT, ARA
  • Decreases : UMS, KIT, SMRT, IREIT, UOB
  • No Change : Starhub, King Wan, F&N, Genting 
  • No More : —

 
 

Exchange Rates (for 2015)

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -4.13% : LMIR – Weak for 9M before recovering somewhat in Q4.
  • AUD (Australia $) -4.71% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – May have bottomed after it hit below 1:1
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +5.81% : Saizen – Positive for the year. Saizen have received an offer for their assets