Portfolio – Q216

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q216 close,

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2840.93, -1.45% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

• Size (Stocks Only) : -27.51% (Cost) / -27.41% (Market Value)
• Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 5.30% (Unrealised) -5.38% (Realised) + 1.59% (Div) = +1.51%
• Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.20% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 0.83% (Stocks Bought in 2016)

So, +1.51% vs -1.45% (STI), better than STI but the +ve was due to the sharp market rebound during the last few days…. I'm still keeping a good cash position which can be deployed when prices are attractive. In the meantime, I have transferred some to Maybank iSavvy for their much higher interest rate (vs 0.05% in POSB/DBS). iBanking allows instant max $50k inter-bank transfer using the FAST xfer option, so, it's quite convenient to manage.

For Q216, STI hit a peak of 2960.78 on 21-Apr-16 before sliding to a low of 2730.80 on 6-May. Next peak was only 2862.38 on 8-Jun, before dropping to a month low of 2729.85 on 27-Jun, due to BREXIT fears. A quick subsequent rebound of +120 points followed during the last 3 days of the Q.

Looking at the STI and listco results (mostly weaker) for 1H, I'm not too optimistic for FY16. US FED Rate Hike fears is now over-shadowed by BREXIT uncertainties. As UK need to invoke Article 50 to formalize the start of BREXIT, and the new PM is only expected in Oct, we're seeing the mkt returning to (and exceeding) normal during the last few days. We'll likely see wider swings leading towards Q4, altho' in the meantime, other fears may appear and dominate…

We're also eagerly waiting for 4^th TELCO tender to open. In recent days, TELCOs had recovered from their lows and I have cleared most of my Starhub (mostly at a slight loss after Div collected) as it's price had appreciated more sharply. For M1, I'm still far from BE (even after Div collected) and with Yield still rather attractive, I'll likely hold till 1H Div is reported.

SingPost had also come under heavy sell-down, with one analyst setting a target price of $1.25… Due to their internal control failures, the Chairman and several Directors have stepped down. A new CEO had not been found… Alibaba 2^nd agreement had been delayed twice, till Oct. For me, I'd been collecting for the Double-xd play and will likely hold on to most of it till then.

In my radar is SGX, which'll be reporting Q4 results, with Q4 Div = 13ct if they're able to maintain FY15 Div = 28ct. But, looking at 9M16, I'm prepared for a lower Div of aro 0.5ct – 1ct lower… UMS remains in my watch list even after selling my entire stake and having missed out on it's price strength… From one forum, someone mentioned that during their AGM, the CEO had stated that he's no longer selling down his stake… However, with their forward statement of a weaker Q2, Ill likely wait for their results first. BB, however, had been strong for May, with both 'B's being strong…

For Q3, I'll most likely be very selective and narrowly focused. I'll also have to be very nimble to react fast to any news as I'm not expecting the mkt to have any sustainable bull run.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q116)

• New Additions : SGX
• Increases : A-HTrust, SingPost, ComfortDelgro, KIT
• Decreases : Starhub, FCOT, M1, ARA
• No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, 
• No More : UMS, Singtel, UOB

  

Exchange Rates (for Q216)

• IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +0.43% : LMIR – Slight Strength, turned +ve for '16
• AUD (Australia $) -2.82% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Turned weak, also for '16
• JPY (Japanese Yen) +10.36% : Continued Strength, main safe haven in times of volatility