Portfolio – Q315

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q315 close,

 

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

UMS

41.0%

  

M1

  

5-10%

KingsmenCreative

42.2%

  

Starhub

  

  

King Wan

  

  


Kep Infra Tr

  

  

SMRT

  

  

IREIT Global

  

< 5%

F & N

13.3%

  

Genting Sing

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

UOB

  

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

Cash

  

3.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2790.89, -17.07% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +7.74% (Cost) / -2.89% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : -9.26% (Unrealised) + 2.11% (Realised) + 3.74% (Div) = -3.41%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -0.27% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 2.38% (Stocks Bought in 2015)

So, -3.41% vs -17.07% (STI), better than STI but a loss…

For Q315, the market was hit by China Yuan Devaluation and fears of China slowdown. Unfortunately, I had used up my large cash pile too fast buying for Yield Rotation Play, only to be hit by the China “tsunami”. My last trade was on 16-Aug-15, which used up the last of my free cash. As my projected cash flow from Dividends in the next few months is healthy, I have decided to take some time out from the market to focus on other family activities.

The surprising anchor to my portfolio (supporting it from a bigger drop) is coming from UMS. BB remains stable, with both Bookings & Billings a bit higher. To-date, Shares Buy-Back had not been active and I’m inclined to believe it’s very likely going to be used only to support prices in order for CEO to do more selling. Nevertheless, the UMS price stability is giving me an option to switch to other stocks which’d dropped a lot more in % terms.

For Q4, I’ll most likely stay inactive till Nov, when the kids have all finished their final exams. I’m however quite inclined to stay passive as my Dividend Projection looks healthy till Dec.

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q215)

  • New Additions : UOB
  • Increases : UMS, M1, Kingsmen, Starhub, KIT, SMRT, IREIT
  • Decreases : FCOT, ARA
  • No Change : King Wan, F&N, Genting 
  • No More : Singtel, OCBC

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -3.79% : LMIR – Continue to weaken after -4.47% in Q215 & -1.04% in Q115. Looks bad
  • AUD (Australia $) -3.31% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continue to worsen, after -0.75% in Q215, -3.31% in Q115, -5.07% in Q314 & -3.10% in Q414
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +7.14% : Saizen – Positive again, after -4.08%  in Q215, +3.51% in Q115, -5.69% in Q314 & -5.23% in Q414

Portfolio – Q215

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q215 close,

 

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

UMS

37.6%

  

M1

  

5-10%

King Wan

25.1%

  

KingsmenCreative

  

  

SMRT

  

  

Starhub

  

< 5%

F & N

21.2%

  

ARA Asset Mgt

  

  

Genting Sing

  

  

OCBC Bank

  

  

Frasers Com Tr

  

  

SingTel

  

  

Kep Infra Tr fka CIT

  

  

IREIT Global

  

Cash

  

16.1%

   

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 3317.33, -1.42% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -7.39% (Cost) / -6.08% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : +1.74% (Unrealised) + 1.16% (Realised) + 2.29% (Div) = +5.19%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -0.84% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 2.00% (Stocks Bought in 2015)

So, +5.19% vs -1.42% (STI), finally better than STI.

For Q215, the better than expected performance came mainly from taking profit for ARA & FCOT.

ARA is mostly due to luck as it suddenly shot up to $1.78 and briefly to $1.8x. This is despite my having made a mistake in my EPS estimate and the Q1 results was worse than my projection. As such, I took the opportunity to reduce my stake significantly.

As for FCOT, there was an announcement of a sale of Hotel Lease cum Australia acquisition. The key was in their circular, their projected DPU was worse than my original expectations. Together with a continued price rise to $1.58 (which is higher than NAV) and a projected Yield of closer to 6%, I decided to sell a large part of my holding. The additional fear for me is the acquisition will be funded by Private Placement, which can be value destructive if it’s at a big discount (max 10%).

My difficult decision to reduce my stake in UMS plus Genting (Q1 Results was worse than my expectation) & SembMarine (Oil Price continued to be weak and volatile) at a huge loss increased my Free Cash by a lot. This Free Cash was useful for me to take advantage of short term opportunities in several stocks. But, I continue to be stuck in many of these Blue Chips as my entry price now looked high (on hindsight). For eg, M1, SMRT & Starhub are now quite significant holdings in my portfolio.

The key fears for now are GREXIT, which is causing huge drops in EU mkt & China, causing volatility in our mkt. FED Rate Hike is now deferred to Sep-15 at the earliest, but, may be further delayed if EU issues become bigger.

My likely strategy for Q3 will be to make good use of my Free Cash to take advantage of market volatility when opportunities arises. OCBC & TELCOs may become longer term holds plus a few High Yield Trusts such as KIT & IREIT.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q115)

  • New Additions : M1, SMRT, Starhub, Singtel, OCBC, KIT, IREIT
  • Increases : King Wan, Kingsmen, F&N
  • Decreases : UMS, ARA, FCOT, Genting 
  • No Change : —
  • No More : A-Htrust, SembCorp Marine

 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -4.47% : LMIR – Continue to weaken after -1.04% in Q115. Looks bad again
  • AUD (Australia $) -1.27% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continue to worsen, after -3.31% in Q115, -5.07% in Q314 & -3.10% in Q414
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -4.08%  : Saizen – Weakening again, after +3.51% in Q115, -5.69% in Q314 & -5.23% in Q414

Portfolio – Q115

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q115 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 10%

UMS

65.8%

ARA Asset Mgt

Frasers Com Tr

5-10%

Genting Sing

26.6%

Sembcorp Marine

King Wan

KingsmenCreative

< 5%

F & N

4.2%

Ascendas-Htrust

Cash

  

3.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3447.01, +2.43% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +5.24% (Cost) / +6.68% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : +0.70% (Unrealised) + 0.18% (Realised) + 0.32% (Div) = +1.20%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 0.00% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 0.18% (Stocks Bought in 2015)

So, +1.20% vs +2.43% (STI), worse than STI… I continue to underperform the STI… since FY14… L

For Q115, I finally decided to reduce my stake in UMS. Despite declaring a better than expected Div for FY14, the CEO continued to reduce his holdings (now reduced to 20.01%). It's a huge dilemma for me as P/L is healthy, Industry remains strong (BB remains >1), Balance Sheet is Healthy (Cash / Share Improved from 7.68ct to 7.87ct) for a PE = 9.12 & Yield = 11.321% (9.434% if Exclude Special Div). But, I have finally decided that having a too huge % of my portfolio in UMS is presenting me with a huge risk. As such, I plan to further reduce in April, during CEO Blackout Period (within 1mth of Q1 results – 8-May last year) as there'll be a better chance for prices to go up (before xd).

I have also substantially reduced my stake in King Wan. The main reason for my stake in King Wan is their holding in KTIS (listed in SET), which is in the Sugar Industry. As such, I have been tracking KTIS share price, Sugar prices & THB Exchange Rate. Unfortunately, Sugar prices had continued to remain weak and with that, KTIS share prices, although THB remains strong. King Wan core biz of M&E stays weak and adds to the risk. 2H will be in end-Mar and last year, Div = 1.5ct. I may buy some back before that.

I have increased my stake in ARA substantially. Prices had been weak due to sustained selling. I have computed and posted on kinv blog previously that ARA Q1 Earnings will be quite good. Let's hope there won't be any negative surprises due to my homework being not thorough enough…

At the macro level, Oil Price remains weak although there were sporadic recovery attempts due to fears of disruption caused by the war in Yemen. But, it looked set to stay weak as all storage tanks in US are now full ie Surplus Supply got nowhere to go… My SembMarine looked set to be a very long term hold if I plan to ride the cycle. SembMarine have the added problem of the Corruption investigation into Petrobas (Brazil)….

Other uncertainties are,

  • The problem of Greece (may be forced to exit EU)
  • US Rate Hike (likely aro' Jun but at a more gradual slope)

My likely strategy for Q2 will be to increase my level of free cash as market is likely to stay volatile and this will present opportunities.

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q414)

  • New Additions : A-Htrust
  • Increases : ARA, FCOT
  • Decreases : UMS, King Wan, Kingsmen
  • No Change : Genting, SembCorp Marine, F&N
  • No More : Starhill Global

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -1.04% : LMIR – Slightly weaken after +1.58% in Q414. Looks stable since Jun-14
  • AUD (Australia $) -3.31% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continue to worsen, after -5.07% in Q314 & -3.10% in Q414
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +3.51% : Saizen – Slight recovery, after -5.69% in Q314 & -5.23% in Q414

Portfolio – Q414

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q414 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

UMS

82.7%

Frasers Com Tr

King Wan

Genting Sing

Sembcorp Marine

KingsmenCreative

< 5%

ARA Asset Mgt

8.4%

F & N

StarhillGbl Reit

Cash

  

8.9%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3365.15, +6.24% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +7.84% (Cost) / -7.43% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -13.19% (Unrealised Losses) + 8.37% (Realised) + 6.44% (Div) = +1.62%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 6.42% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.95% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +1.62% vs +6.24% (STI), much worse than STI! Amongst my Top 5 holdings, UMS, Genting & SembMarine are seeing unrealised -14.6% to -18.3% losses and these are driving my under-performance…. In spite of this, I enjoyed a record-breaking year of Dividends (gives me hope that I can survive on dividends alone from now) & Transactions Turnover (unlikely to be able to beat this record for a long time) with Realised Profits being my 3rd Best year (that means Unrealised Losses must be HUGE!).

For Q414, I divested all my Saizen & Forterra and took losses. For Saizen, with the continued weakening in JPY, I decided to play safe. As for Forterra, I was not too optimistic that they'd be able to resume DPU in 2015. However, very shortly after I sold, Nan Fung announced an offer @ $1.85 on 4-Nov, which was subsequently raised to $2.25 on 24-Nov…. I have also pared down my FCOT holdings to take some profits and to raise free cash.

In Nov and the beginning of Dec, there were mkt fears due to the huge drop in Oil Prices (-40%), which also resulted in currency weakness in some oil producing countries. However, a strong rally towards the end of the year raised STI to close at +6.24% for the year.

2015 looks set to be a challenging year for a start. Lower oil prices ought to be good for most economies….. right? Weaker oil producing countries eg. Malaysia, Russia and possibly Myanmar are facing uncertainties as their currencies became weaker. The FED is set to raise interest rate after Q115 but Japan & Europe will likely be going the other way. China will continue to affect the ups and downs as they continue to face challenges….

Yes, it's definitely going to be "interesting"… High STI (means fewer stocks are undervalued), Low Singapore Growth (means localised biz faces low growth) + Strong S$ (means regionalised biz faces possibility of –ve growth in S$ terms), Interest Rate Hikes (affects highly geared biz eg REITs)… So, I'll likely continue with my short term strategies, based on quick decisions as and when news / financials are released….

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q314)

  • New Additions : ARA, F&N
  • Increases : SembCorp Marine, King Wan
  • Decreases : FCOT, Starhill Global
  • No Change : UMS, Kingsmen, Genting
  • No More : Forterra, Saizen, Singtel

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +1.58% : LMIR – Surprisingly strong, perhaps new President is giving better confidence. But, LMIR issued new Equities at a discount for acquisitions
  • AUD (Australia $) -3.10% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Looks worse, after -5.07% last Q
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -5.23% : Saizen – Looks terrible, after -5.69% last Q

Portfolio – Q314

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q314 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

UMS

79.9%

Frasers Com Tr

Genting Sing

KingsmenCreative

< 5%

Sembcorp Marine

17.0%

King Wan

StarhillGbl Reit

SingTel

Saizen REIT

Forterra Trust

Cash

  

3.1%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 

Summary

The STI closed at 3276.74, +3.451% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : +15.05% (Cost) / +3.81% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -9.32% (Unrealised Losses) + 8.76% (Realised) + 4.61% (Div) = +4.05%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 7.38% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.38% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +4.05% vs +3.45% (STI), slightly better than STI. My portfolio is very top heavy on UMS & FCOT and a couple of bids change to the closing price can easily skew the performance. So, the performance figures may not be too useful….

For Q314, I continued to take profits for Neratel and is no longer vested. Neratel is set to report a good Q3, according to analysts who’d met up with the mgmt. However, I have my own reservations and will wait for the next Quarterly financials to see if it’s really going to become a Growth stock.

I have built up a large position in FCOT due to the following,

  • Expectation of higher rental from Alexandra TechnoPark (Master Lease ended in end-Aug and the mkt passing rent is double that of the Lease agreement)
  • Alexandra TechnoPark accounts for ~20% of Assets ie a Doubling of rental equates to 10% increase in DPU
    • For end-Sep, we’ll see only 1mth of increased earnings
    • Due to the staggered nature of lease renewal, we will not see a doubling of rent immediately, my ball park estimate is 30% to 50% higher
    • So, perhaps a 1% to 1.5% improvement to DPU for end-Sep Q followed by 3% to 5% for end-Dec, with positive improvements going forward as and when leases are renewed

FCOT looks set to be one of my longer term hold for both the 6%+ Yield and potential Capital Gains. Note that one potential negative is, there’s a good chance of Equity Fund Raising for new acquisitions as Gearing is on the high side.

As for UMS, I sold some of my extras and can now sleep better. The yield is very good @ 8.77%, if they maintain the 5ct / year total dividend. The key risk is the uncertainty generated by CEO huge sell-down. I will likely reduce my stake further on opportunity as it’s still a hefty slice of my portfolio.

Current market fears is focused on China slow down and US FED interest rate possibly increasing sooner (economic recovery appears to be on track). Will try to free up more cash before the next FED Mtg in end-Oct. For Q414, I may not be too active till end-Oct due to the school exams season. The school hols starts in mid-Nov ie. likely to be not too active again…

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q214)

  • New Additions : SembCorp Marine, King Wan, Starhill Global, Singtel
  • Increases : FCOT, Kingsmen, Genting
  • Decreases : UMS, Saizen
  • No Change : Forterra
  • No More : NeraTel

 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -0.11% : LMIR – Looks more stabilized with new President to be sworn in in Oct
  • AUD (Australia $) -5.07% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Looks bad
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) -5.69% : Saizen – Looks bad

Portfolio – Q214

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q214 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

UMS

79.7%

Frasers Com Tr

NeraTel

Genting Sing

Saizen REIT

< 5%

Forterra Trust

2.9%

Kingsmen Creative

Cash

  

17.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 

Summary

The STI closed at 3256.67, +2.786% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -7.93% (Cost) / -12.34% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -4.46% (Unrealised Losses) + 3.27% (Realised) + 3.35% (Div) = +2.16%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 2.06% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.21% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +2.16% vs +2.786% (STI), worse than STI. My worst fears happened… falling down to earth due to the sell-down of UMS by CEO and AMAT. The fears continue to linger… CEO seems intent on divesting his entire stake…

For Q214, I decided to take profits for Popular Hldgs & Neratel. For Popular Hldgs, I have divested my entire stake due to my fears of their continued weakness in profitability. As for Neratel, I’d previously amassed a huge extra in anticipation of their year end 4ct dividend. As there were no positive surprise and mgmt appeared to have changed their intention to realise shareholder value (by spinoff + more aggressive growth plans), I have since sold the extras plus some of the original ones.

Current market fears is focused on Iraq as the fighting there may cause a bigger oil crisis. But, somehow, I think US is playing a bigger game there and I doubt that they’ll allow it to develop into a bigger crisis.

For Q314, I’ll start with the usual focus on REITs Quarterly reporting. As for UMS, I’ll likely focus on the 1-mth Blackout period from B-Jul to B-Aug for action, if any. Fundamentally, UMS look better by the day (due to price drop) and the main danger now is irregularities ie CEO knows something we don’t… I’ll likely be spending lots of time on this dilemma…

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q114)

  • New Additions : FCOT, Kingsmen
  • Increases : UMS, Genting, Saizen
  • Decreases : NeraTel
  • No Change : Forterra
  • No More : Popular, A-HTrust, SB REIT, STEng, SIAEC, FCT, SBSTransit

 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -6.58% : LMIR – Don’t look good
  • AUD (Australia $) +0.77% : A-Htrust, Singtel – Mildly +ve
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +0.88% or +2.48% (vs end-Dec): Saizen – Slightly +ve for Jun DPU

Portfolio Q114

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q114 close (A new format),

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

NeraTel

72.0%

Popular

FrasersCT

UMS

< 5%

Saizen REIT

16.8%

AscendasHT

ForterraTr

SoilbuildBizREIT

ST Engg

SBSTransit 500

SIA Engg

Genting SP

Cash

  

11.2%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3188.62, +0.669% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -11.01% (Cost) / +0.89% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : +11.92% (Unrealised) + (-5.75%) (Realised Losses) + 0.39% (Div) = +6.56%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.3% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 0.55% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +6.56% vs +0.669% (STI), better than STI. The figures are a bit misleading as the Portfolio Performance was still hovering at just below +2% a week ago but started to go up due mainly to the big price jump by UMS and to a smaller extent, Neratel. It may fall back down to earth in Q2… hopefully not…

For Q114, I was busy realising huge losses… Vard (which subsequently rallied by >10% as Brazil yard problems seemed to be contained), LMIR (Indonesia economy looks shaky with Rupiah under stress) and even my old fav, Popular Hldgs (Operating Profit continues to weaken altho’ Cash is strong)… The realisation I had was that if there’re better alternatives around, with a good enough degree of certainty, I ought to just “bite the bullet” and move on. As long as the alternative stock performs better, we’ll see a rise in Total Asset Value…. and this is after all the most important reason for investing… Realising losses can and is very painful.. psychologically… but, this is one key area I’ll have to continue to develop myself..

As expected, new fears had surfaced in Q114 (after QE3 Tapering had been mapped out by the US FED). Russia annexation of Crimea created fears of a bigger conflict in Eastern Europe starting with Ukraine and leading to perhaps other ex-USSR states. For a while, a more hawkish Yellen speech which indicated Interest Rate is likely to rise earlier than previously expected, created fears (may not have gone away yet but it shows the impact of the FED’s actions or even just talk). At this point in time (end-Q1), fears seemed to have subsided but what’s for sure, something will crop up in Q214.

For Q214, my game plan continues for Dividend Plays but at a smaller scale as fewer companies have March as their year end. However, many stocks which had declared their FY13 (Dec) Div will be going xd in Q2 and I’ll be selling down the less promising ones before it goes xd.

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q413)

  • New Additions : A-HTrust, SB REIT, STEng, SIAEC, Genting
  • Increases : NeraTel, UMS
  • Decreases : Popular
  • No Change : FCT, Saizen, , Forterra, SBSTransit
  • No More : HLFin, LMIR, Vard

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • USD (US $)


  • AUD (Australia $)


  • JPY (Japanese Yen)


  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah)


Looks like good news for Q1 DPU as,

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +7.1% : LMIR
  • AUD (Australia $) +3.6% : A-HTrust
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +1.6% : Saizen (No DPU Payout as Semi-Annual in Jun)

  

Portfolio Q413

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q413 close,

 
Summary
 
The STI closed at 3167.43, +0.01% from end 2012. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2012),
  • Size (Stocks Only) : +9.61% (Cost) / +7.20% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance vs End-2012 Mkt Value : -1.61% (Unrealised) +11.23% (Realised) + 5.15% (Div) = +14.77%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : 9.27% (Stocks Bought before 2013) + 1.96% (Stocks Bought in 2013)

So, +14.77% vs +0.01% (STI), better than STI. Dropped from Q313 (+16.42% vs STI +0.02%), slightly better than Q213 (+14.32% vs STI -0.53%) and below Q113 (+18.51% vs STI +4.45%. When measured wrt STI, the best performance was in Q3 (+16%) and in the same +14% band for the other 3 Qs.

For Q4, I was most active in Oct & Nov as I was wearing my Trading Hat ie. Short Term Trades in sync with the market volatility due to QE3 Tapering Fears. In Dec, I was quite inactive due to the School Hols….

For Q114, with QE3 Tapering certainty mapped out, volatility (if any) will have to come from other fears. Most likely, my game plan would be to go for Dividend Plays as this will be the busiest FY end reporting Q.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q313)

  • New Additions : FCT  
  • Increases : NeraTel, Popular, Vard
  • Decreases : HLFin, LMIR, UMS, Forterra
  • No Change : Saizen, SBSTransit
  • No More :  ARA, , SPH,  KGT

 

Portfolio Q313

NOTE

I have reverted back to the individual stocks breakdown as there's no individual stock that has too large a %.

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q313 close,

Portfolio Q313

 
Summary
 
The STI closed at 3167.87, +0.02% from end 2012. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2012),
  • Size (Stocks Only) : -5.69% (Cost) / -4.08% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance vs End-2012 Mkt Value : +1.12% (Unrealised) +10.79% (Realised) + 4.51% (Div) = +16.42%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : 9.37% (Stocks Bought before 2013) + 1.42% (Stocks Bought in 2013)

So, +16.42% vs+0.02% (STI), better than STI. Improved from Q213 (+14.32% vs STI -0.53%) but still below Q113 (+18.51% vs STI +4.45%  although there's an improvement if measured wrt STI.

It's been a roller coaster Q3, with a sharp drop in Jul, followed by a rebound in Aug, before pulling back towards end-Sep. The volatility is very much due to the uncertainties of QE3 easing and to a certain extent, Syria problem. Having seen several ups and downs especially from QE3 issue,

I have decided to play safe and reduce my exposure to REITs further (totally sold off my entire stake in Sabana as there's also a Placement at close to 10% discount which I don't quite like ie. Mgmt leaning towards self interest). But, at the same time, I'm also taking risk by buying into Forterra, a Biz Trust which is geared, but which is at a hefty discount to NAV.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q213)

  • New Additions : UMS, ARA, Forterra, SPH 
  • Increases : LMIR, Vard 
  • Decreases : Popular, NeraTel, KGT  
  • No Change :  HLFin, Saizen, SBSTransit
  • No More :  Sabana, F&N, SingTel 

 

Portfolio Q213

NOTE

I have reverted back to a Stock Category display, instead of each individual ones. Main reason is Popular Hldgs is again a huge part of my pie and 5/11 of my stocks are <5% each (making it difficult for visual display).

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q213 close,

Portfolio Q213

 
Summary
 
The STI closed at 3150.44, -0.53%% from end 2012. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2012),
  • Size : +8.19% (Cost) / +12.27% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance vs End-2012 Mkt Value : +4.37% (Unrealised) +6.71% (Realised) + 2.48% (Div) = +13.56%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : 5.49% (Stocks Bought before 2013) + 1.22% (Stocks Bought in 2013)

So, +13.56% vs -0.53% (STI), better than STI. Dropped from Q113 +18.51% vs +4.45% (STI) but still satisfactory. The market pull back came in fast and furious in June. Some of the Yield Stocks and REITs which I'd sold previously is beginning to look attractive again. Looks like for Q3, I may be switching back from Small Caps to Yield Stocks + REITs….

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q113)

  • New Additions : LMIR, F&N, SingTel
  • Increases : Popular, Sabana, Vard, Saizen
  • Decreases : HLFin
  • No Change : NeraTel, KGT, SBSTransit
  • No More : A-HTrust

 

Stocks Ranking (by % Holding) and Category

1  Popular  Small Caps
2  NeraTel Small Caps 
3  Sabana REIT REIT
4  HL Fin Yield
5  Vard Small Caps
6  LMIR REIT
7  SaizenREIT REIT
8  F&N Yield
9  K-Green Infrastructure
10  SBSTransit 500 Yield
11  SingTel Yield