Category: MyStocks

NOTE

• I have changed the format for my Portfolio Breakdown to a Pie Chart with Individual Stocks breakdown as I'm down to a more visible (for pie chart) 9 main stocks (SPH removed as left with odd lots) and no indiviual stock is too dominating (previously, Popular was more than 1/3).
• Although the inclusion of the 'Cash' component is meant to provide a better picture of the investment performance, the enlarged Base (denominator) gives a more conservative % returns figures when it's profitable and a less negative % returns figures when it's loss making. Further, my Living Expenses comes from here (no Active / Work income) and that skew the results somewhat.

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q113 close,

• Size (excludes cash) : -16.75% (Cost) / -2.26% (Market Value)
• Portfolio Performance vs End-2012 Mkt Value : +12.81% (Unrealised) + 5.44% (Realised Profits) + 0.34% (Div) = +18.51%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : +5.03% (Stocks Bought before 2013) + 0.41% (Stocks Bought in 2013)

So, +18.51% vs +4.45% (STI), better than STI. Quite unbelievable, looks scary…. Very high chance it's just a case of a 'Rising Tide Lifting all Boats' ie. the Bull market is making us look good… Have to constantly remind myself not to get complacent and continue to put in more effort to do my homework in my analysis and not take unnecessarily higher risks…

Many of my old favourite Yield Stocks are hitting PE close to 20 + many REITs hitting <6% (even <5%) Yield and >30% premium over NAV. Even mid-caps stocks are beginning to look expensive. After selling (always too early), I'm now stuck with Cash not yet deployed (a very rare situation for me). For Q213, I'll have to get busy analysing new stocks to buy… With STI ~3300 and many companies expected to be hit by rising expenses (especially Labour and Raw Materials – Inflation), the focus has to be to only invest if the odds are stacked in my favour ie. to be patient and only invest if there's anything worth investing. In the meantime, perhaps more short term trading activities, starting with April Quarterly Reporting season for REITs…. 😀

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q412)

• New Additions : STX OSV, SaizenREIT
• Increases : KGT
• Decreases : Popular,  HLFin
• No Change : Sabana, SBSTransit, NeraTel, AH-Trust, SPH
• No More : SingPost, Sarin, SPH (left only odd lots)

 

 

NOTE

I have changed my BASE to include CASH as the larger denominator (Base) will give a more conservative performance figure (when making $$). The weakness of the previous base (which excludes cash) is that the Performance will be "enhanced" if I were to sell a lot of my stocks, thereby resulting in a smaller denominator (base).

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q412 close,

• Size : -2.25% (Cost) / +30.05% (Market Value)
• Portfolio Performance vs End-2011 Mkt Value : +26.93% (Unrealised) – 1.89% (Realised Losses) + 5.32% (Div) = +30.35%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : -6.43% (Stocks Bought before 2012) + 3.45% (Stocks Bought in 2012)
• Portfolio Composition
  • Small Caps : A new category that's driving the Capital Gains + Yield but may result in higher risk during recession
  • Yield Stocks + REITs : Reduced as Yield Drops due to Rise in Price
  • Infrastructure : Eliminated those that are Highly Geared
  • Shipping Trust + Junks : Got rid of all as looks increasingly unlikely to recover
  • Cash : Increased due to difficulties in finding suitable stocks

So, +30.35% vs +19.68% (STI), better than STI. Quite unbelievable, hard to repeat in 2013!

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q312)

• New Additions : –
• Increases : Popular, NeraTel, Sarin
• Decreases : AH-Trust, KGT, SPH
• No Change : Sabana, HLFin, SBSTransit, SingPost
• No More : SingTel, AIMSAMPIREIT, RafflesMed

 

Stocks Ranking (by % Holding) and Category

1	Popular	Small Caps
2	HL Fin	Yield
3	NeraTel	Small Caps
4	Sabana REIT	REIT
5	AscendasHT	REIT
6	Sarin	Small Caps
7	SBSTransit 500	Yield
8	K-Green	Infrastructure
9	SingPost	Yield
10	SPH	Yield

 

NOTE

I have changed my BASE to include CASH as the larger denominator (Base) will give a more conservative performance figure (when making $$). The weakness of the previous base (which excludes cash) is that the Performance will be "enhanced" if I were to sell a lot of my stocks, thereby resulting in a smaller denominator (base).

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q312 close,

• Size : +0.38% (Cost) / +33.1% (Market Value)
• Portfolio Performance vs End-2011 Mkt Value : +26.03% (Unrealised) – 0.23% (Realised Losses) + 4.65% (Div) = +30.45%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : -3.34% (Stocks Bought before 2012) + 3.11% (Stocks Bought in 2012)
• Portfolio Composition
  • Small Caps : A new category that's driving the Capital Gains + Yield but may result in higher risk during recession
  • Yield Stocks + REITs : Reduced as Yield Drops due to Rise in Price
  • Infrastructure : Eliminated those that are Highly Geared
  • Shipping Trust + Junks : Got rid of all as looks increasingly unlikely to recover
  • Cash : Increased due to difficulties in finding suitable stocks

So, +30.45% vs +15.64% (STI), much better than STI. Quite unbelievable, but largely driven by the Small Caps stocks

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q212)

• New Additions : NeraTel, AH-Trust, Sarin, SingTel
• Increases : Popular
• Decreases : HLFin, AIMSAMPIREIT, RafflesMed, SPH
• No Change : Sabana, KGT, SBSTransit, SingPost
• No More : FrasersComm,  MIIF, CitySpring, STEng, Hour Glass, Cambridge, SIAEC, StarHub

 

Stocks Ranking (by % Holding) and Category

1	Popular	Small Caps
2	HL Fin	Yield
3	Sabana REIT	REIT
4	NeraTel	Small Caps
5	AscendasHT	REIT
6	K-Green	Infrastructure
7	AIMSAMPI Reit	REIT
8	SPH	Yield
9	Sarin	Small Caps
10	SBSTransit 500	Yield
11	SingTel	Yield
12	RafflesMG	Yield
13	SingPost	Yield

 

XIRR (in Excel spreadsheet) could be used to measure the performance of our Stocks Investment. Explanation on how to use can be found at,

http://office.microsoft.com/en-gb/excel-help/xirr-HP005209341.aspx

 

To calculate XIRR for our Stocks Investment on an annual basis, I copied all my transactions to a worksheet as follows,

 

1 Jan 12 : + (Mkt Value of All Stocks on 31 Dec11)

Dates : + (Buy Transactions)
.
.
Dates : – (Sell Transactions)
.
.
Dates : – (Dividends)
.
.

31 Dec 12 : – (Mkt Value of All Stocks on 30 Jun 12)

 

Dates above means each individual date and the corresponding value of transaction. There's no need to arrange the transactions in Time order as XIRR will sort it our for us.

Note that I used 31 Dec 12 as the end date (even tho' the Mkt Value is for 30 Jun 12) as I wanted to get a comparative figure to benchmark against STI. Using 30-Jun-12 as the End Date would annualise the figures and would give ~2x the STI benchmark.

 

Results

2011 : XIRR = -7.58% vs -5.81% (my own non-scientific method) vs STI = -17.04%

2012 : XIRR = +21.77% vs +17.27% (own method) vs STI = +8.77%

2011 till end Jun-12 : XIRR = +7.83%

It looks like my own method is only conservative when I have +ve returns. When I have -ve returns (like 2011), it's no more conservative!

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q212 close,

• Size : -10.9% (Cost) / +2.38% (Market Value)
• Net Portfolio Performance vs End-2011 Mkt Value : +14.32% (Unrealised) + 0.12% (Realised) + 2.90% (Div) = +17.35%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : -1.62% (Stocks Bought before 2012) + 1.75% (Stocks Bought in 2012)
• Portfolio Composition
  • 2011 : 40.08% (Yield Stocks) + 27.43% (REITs) + 21.65% (Infrastructure) + 5.03% (Shipping Trusts) + 5.82% (Junk)
  • 2012 : 57.48% (Yield Stocks) + 27.10% (REITs) + 15.42% (Infrastructure)
    • Quite a Radical Shift in Portfolio Composition to One that's Hopefully Less Risky
    • Reduced Infrastructure (Highly Geared eg. MIIF) & Removed Shipping Trust (High Gearing + Low Cycle)
    • Increased Yield Stocks (Lower Volatility in Earnings) 

So, +17.35% vs +8.77% (STI), better than STI. Quite unbelievable, to confirm again when I receive my CDP statements! One factor that'd enhance (artificially) my portfolio performance is the base where I'm using Cost and which'd reduced by -10.9% (due to selling). Using Market Value would not solve this 'problem' as it's even lower (sitting on unrealised losses wrt cost).

Changes in portfolio (vs Q112),

• New Additions : Hour Glass, SIAEC
• Increases : Popular,  RafflesMed, MIIF, SPH
• Decreases : HLFin, FrasersComm,  AIMSAMPIREIT, Cambridge, STEng, SingPost, StarHub
• No Change : Sabana, KGT, CitySpring, SBSTransit
• No More : SingTel

 

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q112 close,

• Size : -3.61% (Mainly Due to Selling Stocks with Huge Losses)
• Net Portfolio Performance vs End-2011 Mkt Value : +14.53% (Unrealised) – 3.54% (Realised) + 0.97% (Div) = +11.96%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Losses : -3.76% (Stocks Bought before 2012) + 0.22% (Stocks Bought in 2012)
• Portfolio Composition
  • 2011 : 40.08% (Yield Stocks) + 27.43% (REITs) + 21.65% (Infrastructure) + 5.03% (Shipping Trusts) + 5.82% (Junk)
  • 2012 : 55.42% (Yield Stocks) + 31.02% (REITs) + 13.57% (Infrastructure)
    • Quite a Radical Shift in Portfolio Composition to One that's Hopefully Less Risky
    • Reduced Infrastructure (Highly Geared eg. MIIF) & Shipping Trust (High Gearing + Low Cycle)
    • Increased Yield Stocks (Lower Volatility in Earnings) 

So, +11.96% vs +13.76% (STI), worse than STI, but am not complaining!

Changes in portfolio (vs Q411),

• New Additions : SingTel, Popular
• Increases : HLFin, STEng, StarHub, FrasersComm, SPH
• Decreases : KGT, MIIF, CitySpring, RafflesMed
• No Change : Sabana, Cambridge, AIMSAMPIREIT, SingPost, SBSTransit
• No More : FSL, Rickmers, ComfortDelgro

 

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q411 close,

• Size : +77.70%
• Net Portfolio Performance At End-2010 Mkt Value : -14.64% (Unrealised) + 3.75% (Realised) + 5.08% (Div) = -5.81%
• Further Breakdown of Realised Gains : 2.51% (Stocks Bought before 2011) + 1.24% (Stocks Bought in 2011)

So, -5.81% vs -17.04% (STI), better than STI, but not much of a consolation as still quite a big drop in valuation.

Changes in portfolio (vs Q311),

• New Additions : —
• Increases : STEng, CitySpring, SingPost
• Decreases : StarHub, ComfortDelgro
• No Change : KGT, FrasersComm, Cambridge, AIMSAMPIREIT, FSL, SBSTransit, Rickmers, HLFin, Sabana, MIIF, RafflesMed, SPH
• No More : SPAusNet, SATS

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q311 close,

• Size : +77.42%
• Net Portfolio Performance At End-2010 Mkt Value : -13.13% (Unrealised) + 2.85% (Realised) + 4.31% (Div) = -5.98%

So, -5.98% vs -16.14% (STI), better than STI, but not much of a consolation as still quite a big drop in valuation.

Changes in portfolio (vs Q211),

• New Additions : ComfortDelgro, SATS
• Increases : HLFin, Sabana, MIIF, RafflesMed  
• Decreases : KGT, STEng, StarHub, SPH  
• No Change : FrasersComm, Cambridge, AIMSAMPIREIT, CitySpring, FSL, SBSTransit, Rickmers, SingPost, SPAusNet
• No More : MCT

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q211 close,

• Size : +66.95%
• Net Portfolio Performance At End-2010 Mkt Value : -2.81% (Unrealised) + 1.87% (Realised) + 2.48% (Div) = +1.53%

So, +1.53% vs -2.18% (STI), slightly better than STI.

Changes in portfolio (vs Q111),

• New Additions : MIIF, RafflesMed, MCT
• Increases : HLFin, Sabana, KGT, STEng, Cambridge, SPH 
• Decreases : SPAusNet 
• No Change : StarHub, FrasersComm, AIMSAMPIREIT, CitySpring, FSL, SBSTransit, Rickmers, SingPost
• No More : StarHill Gbl, SATS, SingTel, CLT

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q111 close,

The STI closed at 3105.85, -2.64% from end 2010. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2010),

• Size : +43.70%
• Net Portfolio Performance At End-2010 Mkt Value : -1.96% (Unrealised) + 0.68% (Realised) + 0.64% (Div) = -0.65%

So, -0.65% vs -2.64% (STI), better than STI but still a Nett Loss.

Changes in portfolio (vs 2010),

• New Additions : STEng, SATS, SingTel
• Increases : HLFin, Sabana, FrasersComm, Cambridge, SPAusNet, SPH
• Decreases : KGT, AIMSAMPIREIT
• No Change : StarHub, CitySpring, FSL, StarHill Gbl, SBSTransit, Rickmers, SingPost, CLT  
• No More : ComfortDelgro