Portfolio – Q414

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q414 close,

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3365.15, +6.24% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

• Size (Stocks Only) : +7.84% (Cost) / -7.43% (Market Value)
• Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -13.19% (Unrealised Losses) + 8.37% (Realised) + 6.44% (Div) = +1.62%
• Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 6.42% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.95% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +1.62% vs +6.24% (STI), much worse than STI! Amongst my Top 5 holdings, UMS, Genting & SembMarine are seeing unrealised -14.6% to -18.3% losses and these are driving my under-performance…. In spite of this, I enjoyed a record-breaking year of Dividends (gives me hope that I can survive on dividends alone from now) & Transactions Turnover (unlikely to be able to beat this record for a long time) with Realised Profits being my 3rd Best year (that means Unrealised Losses must be HUGE!).

For Q414, I divested all my Saizen & Forterra and took losses. For Saizen, with the continued weakening in JPY, I decided to play safe. As for Forterra, I was not too optimistic that they'd be able to resume DPU in 2015. However, very shortly after I sold, Nan Fung announced an offer @ $1.85 on 4-Nov, which was subsequently raised to $2.25 on 24-Nov…. I have also pared down my FCOT holdings to take some profits and to raise free cash.

In Nov and the beginning of Dec, there were mkt fears due to the huge drop in Oil Prices (-40%), which also resulted in currency weakness in some oil producing countries. However, a strong rally towards the end of the year raised STI to close at +6.24% for the year.

2015 looks set to be a challenging year for a start. Lower oil prices ought to be good for most economies….. right? Weaker oil producing countries eg. Malaysia, Russia and possibly Myanmar are facing uncertainties as their currencies became weaker. The FED is set to raise interest rate after Q115 but Japan & Europe will likely be going the other way. China will continue to affect the ups and downs as they continue to face challenges….

Yes, it's definitely going to be "interesting"… High STI (means fewer stocks are undervalued), Low Singapore Growth (means localised biz faces low growth) + Strong S$ (means regionalised biz faces possibility of –ve growth in S$ terms), Interest Rate Hikes (affects highly geared biz eg REITs)… So, I'll likely continue with my short term strategies, based on quick decisions as and when news / financials are released….

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q314)

• New Additions : ARA, F&N
• Increases : SembCorp Marine, King Wan
• Decreases : FCOT, Starhill Global
• No Change : UMS, Kingsmen, Genting
• No More : Forterra, Saizen, Singtel

 
 

Exchange Rates

• IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +1.58% : LMIR – Surprisingly strong, perhaps new President is giving better confidence. But, LMIR issued new Equities at a discount for acquisitions
• AUD (Australia $) -3.10% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Looks worse, after -5.07% last Q
• JPY (Japanese Yen) -5.23% : Saizen – Looks terrible, after -5.69% last Q