Portfolio Breakdown
My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q215 close,
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Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings
Summary
The STI closed at 3317.33, -1.42% from end 2014. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2014),
- Size (Stocks Only) : -7.39% (Cost) / -6.08% (Market Value)
- Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2014 Mkt Value : +1.74% (Unrealised) + 1.16% (Realised) + 2.29% (Div) = +5.19%
- Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -0.84% (Stocks Bought before 2015) + 2.00% (Stocks Bought in 2015)
So, +5.19% vs -1.42% (STI), finally better than STI.
For Q215, the better than expected performance came mainly from taking profit for ARA & FCOT.
ARA is mostly due to luck as it suddenly shot up to $1.78 and briefly to $1.8x. This is despite my having made a mistake in my EPS estimate and the Q1 results was worse than my projection. As such, I took the opportunity to reduce my stake significantly.
As for FCOT, there was an announcement of a sale of Hotel Lease cum Australia acquisition. The key was in their circular, their projected DPU was worse than my original expectations. Together with a continued price rise to $1.58 (which is higher than NAV) and a projected Yield of closer to 6%, I decided to sell a large part of my holding. The additional fear for me is the acquisition will be funded by Private Placement, which can be value destructive if it’s at a big discount (max 10%).
My difficult decision to reduce my stake in UMS plus Genting (Q1 Results was worse than my expectation) & SembMarine (Oil Price continued to be weak and volatile) at a huge loss increased my Free Cash by a lot. This Free Cash was useful for me to take advantage of short term opportunities in several stocks. But, I continue to be stuck in many of these Blue Chips as my entry price now looked high (on hindsight). For eg, M1, SMRT & Starhub are now quite significant holdings in my portfolio.
The key fears for now are GREXIT, which is causing huge drops in EU mkt & China, causing volatility in our mkt. FED Rate Hike is now deferred to Sep-15 at the earliest, but, may be further delayed if EU issues become bigger.
My likely strategy for Q3 will be to make good use of my Free Cash to take advantage of market volatility when opportunities arises. OCBC & TELCOs may become longer term holds plus a few High Yield Trusts such as KIT & IREIT.
Portfolio Changes (vs Q115)
- New Additions : M1, SMRT, Starhub, Singtel, OCBC, KIT, IREIT
- Increases : King Wan, Kingsmen, F&N
- Decreases : UMS, ARA, FCOT, Genting
- No Change : —
- No More : A-Htrust, SembCorp Marine
Exchange Rates
- IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -4.47% : LMIR – Continue to weaken after -1.04% in Q115. Looks bad again
- AUD (Australia $) -1.27% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continue to worsen, after -3.31% in Q115, -5.07% in Q314 & -3.10% in Q414
- JPY (Japanese Yen) -4.08% : Saizen – Weakening again, after +3.51% in Q115, -5.69% in Q314 & -5.23% in Q414