Portfolio – Q116

 

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q116 close,

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2840.90, -1.45% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

• Size (Stocks Only) : -23.19% (Cost) / -24.44% (Market Value)
  
• Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 3.31% (Unrealised) -3.88% (Realised) + 0.34% (Div) = -0.23%
  
• Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -4.11% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 0.23% (Stocks Bought in 2016)
  

So, -0.23% vs -1.45% (STI), better than STI but still a loss…

Q116 had been an exciting roller coaster ride, with STI hitting a low of 2532.70 (-12.17%) on 21-Jan and staying low for the whole month of Feb, before a strong rebound in March, hitting a high of 2906.80 (+0.83%) on 18-Mar! China fears of economic slowdown was the dominating fear and had somewhat abated after great efforts by their govt. At the same time, US Fed had turned cautious and further rate hike had been pushed back, at least till June. Our regional ASEAN neighbours are now in the midst of a bull market which is mostly supported by strong economic data. Unfortunately, Singapore GDP growth is projected to remain flat at <2%.

For Q116, I’d been active as planned. With Singapore economy expected to be weak, I’d decided to focus on building up free cash when the market rebounded. UMS is no longer my top stock as I’d progressively been selling from 54 – 57ct. UMS Q4 results appeared to be very good and they’d maintained 2H Div = 3ct. Industry BB stays above 1, but the Bs are getting weaker, like last year. I’m expecting UMS Q1 to be weak, as I suspected some early income recognition for their superb Q4. Coupled with other reasons I’d posted previously, I have decided to pare down my stake considerably… perhaps to buy back on any weakness after it goes xd on 21-Apr.

TELCOs were one of my favourite trading stock in Q1. With the impending 4^th TELCO license up for tender soon, share prices had been volatile. M1 & Starhub are hitting 6% Yield regularly and I’m expecting to enjoy that for at least a year before the 4^th TELCO starts operation next year. This Yield will also have to cover for any further Capital Losses if Share Price drops further. One key thing to watch out for is their FCF as this provides a good indicator on the sustainability of their Div Payout. At the moment, FCF is actually quite weak…

In addition, some other Dividend Stocks which I’ll focus on are A-Htrust, FCOT, SATS, ComfortDelgro,… as per the justification posted previously. As for Banks, I don’t seem to have much affinity with them when it comes to making $$ and my priority will be lowered as I’d divested most of it.

For Q2, I’ll likely continue to be active till the end of the reporting season, with some extension towards the xd dates in May. After that, I may become passive… assuming I still have my war chest of Free Cash… waiting to strike only when market turns bearish…

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q415)

• New Additions : A-HTrust, ComfortDelgro
  
• Increases : Starhub, Kingsmen
  
  
• Decreases : FCOT, UMS, Singtel
  
• No Change : M1, King Wan, KIT, F&N, Genting, ARA, SingPost, UOB
  
• No More : SMRT, IREIT, OCBC
  

 
 

Exchange Rates (for Q116)

• IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -0.12% : LMIR – Slight Weakness
  
• AUD (Australia $) +0.45% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Slight Strength
  
• JPY (Japanese Yen) +2.33% : Saizen – Continued Stregth