Sell @ $0.70
Contra off… 2H DPU = 2.75ct is really lower than my downgraded max estimate of 2.8ct… The weaker DPUs of the other H-Trusts, despite having different asset mix (Hotels, Serviced Apt, Commercial) and Countries, provided a good indicator after all… Yield = 7.857% is now within a 7.x% range, same as the other H-Trusts,
|
REIT |
Price |
Yield |
Gearing |
NAV |
|
|
Frasers Htrust |
$ 0.775 |
7.873% |
39.3% |
$ 0.851 |
-8.9% |
|
A-HTrust |
$ 0.700 |
7.857% |
32.7% |
$ 0.860 |
-18.6% |
|
FE-HTrust |
$ 0.610 |
7.557% |
32.7% |
$ 0.932 |
-34.6% |
|
OUE H-Trust |
$ 0.655 |
7.466% |
37.8% |
$ 0.810 |
-19.1% |
|
CDL Htrust |
$ 1.355 |
7.262% |
36.7% |
$ 1.553 |
-12.7% |
|
AscottREIT |
$ 1.115 |
7.161% |
38.9% |
$ 1.340 |
-16.8% |
A contra gain is irresistible under current mkt uncertainty… especially since the Hospitality sector is not exactly booming… 😀
|
By NPI |
54.5% |
8.1% |
21.3% |
16.1% |
Total |
DPU |
|||||
|
Country |
Australia |
China |
Japan |
Singapore |
|||||||
|
Period |
Rev |
NPI |
Rev |
NPI |
Rev |
NPI |
Rev |
NPI |
Rev |
NPI |
|
|
Q4 – Mar16 |
35.8 |
11.5 |
4.7 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
6.0 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
52.9 |
23.4 |
1.3000 |
|
Q3 – Dec15 |
39.1 |
13.6 |
5.5 |
1.8 |
6.8 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
54.9 |
23.4 |
1.4500 |
|
Q2 – Sep15 |
38.1 |
12.7 |
5.9 |
2.0 |
6.7 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
54.5 |
22.6 |
1.3800 |
|
Q1 – Jun15 |
37.3 |
11.7 |
5.6 |
2.1 |
6.5 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
52.8 |
21.4 |
1.2800 |
|
Q4 – Mar15 |
38.4 |
12.2 |
4.5 |
1.2 |
6.4 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
54.5 |
22.6 |
1.2525 |
|
Q3 – Dec14 |
45.4 |
16.3 |
5.1 |
1.6 |
6.4 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
60.7 |
25.8 |
1.3000 |
|
Q2 – Sep14 |
42.1 |
13.7 |
5.3 |
1.8 |
6.9 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
58.1 |
23.2 |
1.2672 |
|
Q1 – Jun14 |
39.4 |
11.9 |
5.3 |
2.0 |
6.4 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
54.3 |
21.6 |
1.2400 |
|
Q4 – Mar14 |
40.1 |
13.1 |
4.4 |
1.5 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
53.7 |
22.0 |
1.2029 |
2H DPU includes ~0.1ct Divestment Gains ie DPU = 2.65ct if this is excluded… May not be a concern for next Half DPU as one Japan asset resumes operation after being closed for refurbishment…
On a YoY basis, the bright spots comes mainly from Japan, with both Singapore & Australia facing pressure. As for China, NPI contribution is not very significant.