Portfolio – Q416

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q416 close,

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
Summary

The STI closed at 2880.76, -0.07% from end 2015. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2015),

• Size (Stocks Only) : -19.6% (Cost) / -20.7% (Market Value) ; Refer to Cash Position
  
• Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2015 Mkt Value : 2.78% (Unrealised) -5.05% (Realised) + 2.88% (Div) = +0.61%
  
• Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.41% (Stocks Bought before 2016) + 1.36% (Stocks Bought in 2016)
  

So, +0.61% vs -0.07% (STI), better than STI but as it’s coming from accumulated dividends collected, it’s worse than STI + Div (3%+) eg STI ETF…. My cash position has reduced in this Q but stays at a significant level to provide me with the ammo to buy on dips.

For Q4, I continued to add more KIT as it got cheaper, likely due to Interest Rate Hike. For the time being, I’m not too worried as their biz in Utilities ought to provide some cash flow stability. My position in RafflesMed has also increased substantially as prices got lower, altho’ valuation is still not considered cheap, with PE ~35. FCOT is another stock I have increased my position significantly, with prices getting lower. This is likely also due to the impact of Interest Rate Hike. I’m betting the Yield of 7.79% ought to provide some cushion plus potentially S$ getting weaker vs A$ (~45% of NPI). As for M1, where I’d also increased my position, prices continued to weaken further due to the 4^th TELCO threat. Calendar Q1 will be impt for making decisions, to see if Div = 8.3ct is maintained. The decision to reduce my SingPost hldgs due to fears of Div cut was justified when prices dropped after it happened. But, I have just bought back a bit ahead of the 5-Jan EGM for new shares to be issued to Alibaba @ $1.74.

For 2017, Singapore economy is expected to stay weak. Will have to spend time to look for stocks with substantial overseas biz and in countries where currencies are stronger. Trump will assume the US Presidency and with US stocks and USD having risen substantially, what’s next?? For Q1, I may buy REITs just for the reporting season, if it continues to face weakness due to Rate Hike.

Portfolio Changes (vs Q316)

• New Additions : —
  
• Increases : RafflesMed, FCOT, M1, KIT
  
• Decreases : SingPost, SGX
  
• No Change : Kingsmen, King Wan, F&N, Genting, ARA, Starhub
  
• No More : —
  

Exchange Rates (for Q416)

• IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +2.28% : LMIR – Continued to increase, looking good +4.87% for ’16
  
• AUD (Australia $) +0.51% : AusNet, A-Htrust, Singtel – Continued to increase, +1.53% for ’16
  
• JPY (Japanese Yen) -8.41% : Huge tumble after Trump won US Presidential Election and USD strengthened, but +5.5% for ’16