FCOT @ $1.29

Buy @ $1.29

Gave up waiting for lower prices. It’s even higher than the $1.285 I paid for the earlier ones that was cd (2.0523ct)! Never mind, treat it as a switch from my FCT which I’d entirely divested (due to my fears of their impending Private Placement capped at max 10% discount for the acquisition of Changi Point). 😀

From my “colourful” screens of NAV, Gearing Yield, the key negative is the Gearing @ 37.8% as the chances of Equity Fund Raising is high. This in turn, is usually Value Destructive to existing shareholders as it may be a Private Placement at a hefty discount of up to 10% or it may be Yield Dilutive due to lower DPU. For now, I’m willing to take the risk, in anticipation of better Rental Reversions at Alexandra TechnoPark in Aug-14 (my previous estimate is a max of ~+20% to DPU). However, I’ll be prepared to react on any adverse moves by the REIT Mgr…

Colour Code

Gearing

NAV

< 30%

> 10% Discount

30% to 35%

< 10% Discount

35% to 40%

< 10% Premium

> 40%

> 10% Premium

  

  

  

  

  

  

Office / Retail REITs

REIT

Price

Yield

Gearing

NAV

K-REIT

$ 1.230

6.496%

42.4%

$ 1.370

-10.2%

FrasersComm

$ 1.290

6.442%

37.8%

$ 1.550

-16.8%

FrasersCT

$ 1.830

6.126%

27.7%

$ 1.780

2.8%

StarhillGbl Reit

$ 0.830

6.060%

29.6%

$ 0.920

-9.8%

MCT

$ 1.315

5.941%

38.7%

$ 1.160

13.4%

SPHREIT

$ 1.020

5.451%

26.9%

$ 0.900

13.3%

CapitaComm

$ 1.610

5.168%

30.0%

$ 1.660

-3.0%

CapitaMall

$ 2.020

5.158%

35.1%

$ 1.710

18.1%

SuntecReit

$ 1.790

5.050%

37.3%

$ 2.056

-12.9%

FCOT @ $1.285

Buy @ $1.285

Quite surprised to see the price back to my yesterday's buy price. A big seller was around and for a while, I was beginning to think I was too optimistic on my analysis. Fortunately, the selling was well absorbed and soon, the seller must have finished his job and prices started going up.

My current intention is to hold for longer term, at leastt till Aug to see through the new Master Lease agreement for Alexandra Techno Park. It could potentially add 20% max (since it's 20%+ of asset and current rental is half of mkt rate) to DPU in Q4… 😀

FCOT @ $1.285

Buy @ $1.285

A new addition to my portfolio… I must have sold off my last lots a lot time ago at a much lower price..Treat it as a switch from A-HTrust.. ie REIT for REIT, A$ Exposure for A$ Exposure… but, Yield ~1% – 1.5% lower…

Embolden by my last minute buy of FCT yesterday on prediction of a better DPU and share price rising accordingly by a couple of cents, I decided to do the same thing for FCOT. Some quick studies were done and my conclusion was a high certainty of higher DPU vs last Q.

Aft mkt close, SGX Annc… Only slight increase to DPU (below my expectation) but, on an annualised basis (Feb only has 28 days), it was within my expectations..

Period

DPU

Annualised DPU

Gearing

A$-S$ Q-on-Q

Remarks

Q2 – Mar14

2.0524ct

8.31ct

37.8%

+3.62%

A$ Recovery, Expected DPU Recovery to Q4 – Sep13 level

Q1 – Dec13

2.0483ct

8.13ct

37.9%

-3.78%

Lower DPU Due Mainly to Weaker A$

Q4 – Sep13

2.0766ct

8.25ct

37.7%

+0.96%

Lower DPU Due to Divestment of KeyPoint + Japan Assets, Partially Offset by Acquisition of Another 50% of Caroline Centre

Q3 – Jun13

2.1851ct

8.78ct

39.5%

-10.34%

Q2 – Mar13

1.9883ct

8.09ct

31.7%

+1.84%

NOTE : Aussie Assets = ~50%

The longer term potential upside will be in Aug-14 when the Master Lease of Alexandra Techno Park (26% of Asset) is Due for Renewal. Current = $1.8 psf vs mkt $3.6 psf

FCOT @ $1.17

Sell @ $1.17

Contra off as due, none left. Make some Kopi-$$ only. Someone seems to be buying up, may go up some more. Buyer CP '17' = CIMB-GK ðŸ˜€

FCOT @ $1.155

Buy @ $1.155

Do something silly, add back to my portfolio at a higher price. Jump-Q to get it at 5pm. 😀

FCOT pays DPU semi-annually and the next payout will be for Sep. DPU = 3.2423ct for last 1H, Yield = 5.922% ; Gearing = 39.5%. The sale of KeyPoint is pending some final approval and will lower gearing. Play for short term but can keep for longer term. The change in controlling shareholder to TCC / ThaiBev will likely create some uncertainty in the mid term, so have to be alert if holding for longer term.

FCOT @ $1.105

Sell @ $1.105.

My last lots. KeyPoint had gotten the official approval for lease renewal and sales will proceed (still subject to buyer's action to complete). Decided to move on. Buyer CP = UBS 😀

FCOT @ $1.08

Sell @ $1.08.

Reduce my holdings. Recent events at F&N (ThaiBev may be new controlling shareholder) is spooking me as I'm not familiar with their management style. I previously looked at ThaiBev IPO Prospectus and wasn't too impressed. Even after a few years of listing, I don't think they'd managed to grow their biz since Share Price seems to be languishing (before their offer for F&N shares to OCBC and GEH).

Results were out last evening. DPU = 1.7ct (not paid as semi-annual payout), better than 1H = 3.2423ct mainly due to acquisition of Aus asset. Yield = 6.363% ; Gearing = 39.5% ; NAV = $1.30. Even tho' Gearing looks hi and Yield low, the sale of KeyPoint (still pending some approvals) would have resulted in cash that may be used to improve DPU and/or reduce Gearing.

Will perhaps buy back if the situation turns positive eg. ThaiBev shareholders reject their purchase of F&N shares or if FCOT share price drop closer to $1.02 (like last week). 😀

 

11:26AM

Sell @ $1.09. Local CP = UOBKH. Now in Q to sell @ $1.095.

 

11:43AM

Sell @ $1.095. Local CP = DBSV.

 

4:43PM

sell @ $1.095. CP = BNP

 

5:05PM

Sell @ $1.095. Was hoping to Jump-Q @ $1.10 but was unsuccessful. CP = UBS

 

Am left with one last batch to sell.

 

FCOT @ $0.855

Sell @ $0.855. Used the Jump-Q routine to sell during 5pm matching. Need to prepare more free cash to buy my latest obsession – Popular Hldgs. Buyer CP '82' – MS & '84' – UBS. 😀

FCOT @ $0.83

Buy @ $0.83. Decided to add to my collection.

Am expecting DPU = 3.124ct for 1H12 ie. Yield = 7.527% vs 7.241%  (using Q112 DPU = 1.51ct). Not that great as compared to average REIT Yield = 7.237% but I'd been intending to increase my stake for quite some time already (since I missed buying at $0.765 many weeks back!).

My main reason is I like what the Manager (F&N) had been doing since they took over from AllCo. The urgency is they'll be reporting their results in a few eeks' time. 😀

FCOT @ $0.76

Buy @ $0.76. Add to my collection and average down. STI +6 @ 2852, was +30+ earlier. Looks like after the earlier technical rebound, fear is returning to the market again! Seller CP '84' – UBS and '17' – CIMB. 😀

 

Time Price Trade size Type
11:00:09 0.760 159,000 Sell Down
10:37:02 0.760 50,000 Sell Down
10:33:55 0.760 10,000 Sell Down
10:27:57 0.760 13,000 Sell Down
09:58:41 0.760 10,000 Sell Down
09:54:53 0.760 5,000 Sell Down
09:46:45 0.760 35,000 Sell Down
09:44:50 0.760 8,000 Sell Down
09:38:50 0.765 50,000 Buy Up
09:30:23 0.760 26,000 Buy Up
09:29:42 0.760 76,000 Sell Down
09:28:04 0.760 200,000 Sell Down
09:17:59 0.760 2,000 Sell Down