Category: Popular Hldgs

Sell @ $0.265

Someone put in a 500 lots buy, gives me the choice to sell off the last of my holdings. It's the Blackout period now and I may buy back on any price weakness, if fingers get itchy… For now, my crystal ball cannot see any reversal in their weaker profits trend…

Bye bye Popular and thanks for the past 27mths of Roller-Coaster fun… 😀

Sell @ $0.265

It's the Blackout Period now for Shares Buy Back & Insider Transactions. Quite surprising to see buyers at the recent Share Buy Back Cap of 26.5ct. Take this opportunity to sell since I see a high chance of prices dropping lower during the Blackout Period as I'm expecting Q4 results to remain weak  Buyer CP = CIMB (same as the mysterious 27ct Buyer) and Kim Eng… 😀

Sell @ $0.265

Gave up waiting for the mysterious 27ct buyer to return. Most likely, it's their old friend at Mellford, which had been steadily increasing their stake over the years,

• 2013 : 29,714,000 or 3.63%
• 2012 : 19,013,000 or 2.26%
• 2011 : 16,556,000 or 1.97%

If it's indeed Mellford, my original dream scenario of a delisting will likely come sooner… but may still take 1-2 years, depending on the speed of Shares Buy Back (which can be accelerated by more bad results…).

My urgency to sell is Blackout period will happen soon. Last year, it was on 27-May-13 as FY13 (Apr) was released on 27-Jun-13. For FY results, it has to be released within 60-days of FY end ie 30-Jun in this case as their FY end is end-Apr. What happened last year during this period,

• Shares Buy Back on 27-May-13 (prior to that, last buy on 8-Feb), the last day, drove the price up 0.5-  1ct
• During Blackout period, it initially went up 0.5ct-1ct for a few days but subsequently dropped 2ct
• After FY results were announced on 27-Jun-13, Buy Back resumed on 4-Jul-13, 18,26,30,31-Jul & 8-Aug before it went MIA till 14-Apr-14

Looking back, we were seeing weaker reults for FY13, after a strong FY12 that was driven by strong growth in Malaysia and a recovery in their Property biz. For FY14, we are seeing weaker Earnings due to higher costs plus an almost non-existent contribution from their Property biz. In fact, FY14 looks set to be their worst since FY09 when they went into the red. In the worst case, they may have to write down their unsold units at 8Raja since they'd not been able to sell.

The only positive left for me is their strong Cash position of $123Mil (15ct / share or 10ct / share net of debts).

Current GamePlan,

• Sell at min. 26.5ct, possibly till zero holding
• Buy back some if it drops to 25ct during Blackout period
  • Sell back to them if weak results are announced and Shares Buy Back is resumed
• Buy back more at lower prices below 25ct till FY15 results

The above is subject to change, depending on the Quarterly results…

PS. I'm expecting weaker results, similar to Q1-Q3. If I'm wrong, I'll miss out on any upside opportunity… Their persistent Share Buy Back since 14-Apr-14 is making me think I have a high chance of being wrong… This is not impossible as they could have played with the timing ie. recognising Expenses ahead and pushing Profits till last Q, especially for their Book Fairs…. 😀

Sell @ $0.27

I'm putting some in the 27ct Sell Q everyday and today, it got done. Shares Buy Back is obviously capped at 26.5ct for now and every once in a while (like yesterday), it'll go MIA (I think it's to "motivate" sellers to continue to sell @ 26.5ct). As for the 27ct buyer, this is the 3rd such buys so far (although CP is different, previous 2 were CIMB, today, UOBKH). For today, a 500 lots block was placed during 5pm matching, a bit different from the other 2, which were placed just before 5pm.

I'll continue with my sell routine and hopefully, the price will be raised soon as 26.5ct sellers seems to be drying up…

Sell @ $0.27

We're seeing the same buying pattern as yesterday. Shares Buy Back is likely capped at $0.265 for now as they patiently topped up the Buy Q ($0.265) to maintain it at 100-200+ lots. The 27ct Buy Up (of large Sell Q) happened earlier today and all mine in Q was done (include M-in-Law's).

SGX Annc after mkt close,

• 848,000 @ 26.5ct ; 30.6% of Total Vol
• Total Vol = 2,773,000 ; Range = 26.5ct to 27.5ct

So, who's the buyer for 1,910,000 @ $0.27 since Shares Buy Back is capped at $0.265 today?? Yesterday, it was 1,560,000 @ $0.27. The buying pattern is very similar…. One possibility is Mr Chou and if so, his SGX Annc will have to come soon. If it's not him, then who?? Mr Chou is already holding 60%+, so, no way for a 3rd party to try to do a takeover. Traders? I don't mind if they can drive the price up further for me to sell..

If this pattern continues on Friday, we'll try to profit from it… 😀

Sell @ $0.27

Huge volume today, almost all at $0.265 till just 3mins before 5pm where all the 27ct ones in Sell Q was bought up…

It looked like Shares Buy Back at 26.5ct for almost the whole day as the Modus Operandi looked like previous times. As the Max Buy Back Price today is 27.51ct, we were not very surprised to see the huge 27ct sell Q being cleared at the last few minutes. I fact, we'd already queued at 27ct, despite a 1000+ lots Queue…

But, what puzzled us was the Buyer CP was CIMB, not the usual one from Phillip…. Hmmm…

SGX Annc cleared some doubts but opened new ones… Shares Buy Back,

• Total = 3,627,000 @ 26.496ct ; 66.4% of total vol
  • If we use the Vol = 26,000 @ 26ct (fm above UOBKH Trade Summary scrreshot)+ Bal Buy Back Vol = 3,600,000 @ $26.5ct, we get Avg Buy Back Price = 26.4963ct.
• Vol = 5,459,000 ; Range 26-27ct

Holy cow! Looking at the Avg Shares Buy Back Price = 26.496ct vs the Computed Price = 26.4963ct, it is obvious the 27ct Buys were not done by the Shares Buy Back! Further, whoever it was is also buying in huge Qty of >1000 lots! (Total @ 27ct = 1,560,000)

Things just got a lot more interesting and of course, we hope this continues… 😀

But, if Shares Buy Back is capped at 26.5ct and the new Buyer(s) goes MIA, then, likely stalemate… Max Avg Share Buy Back Price for tomorrow is 27.72ct but not much meaning if it's capped  (for now) at 26.5ct…

Sell @ $0.265

Share Buy-Back script being tweaked and played out… I queued and it got done..

For tomorrow, the Max Average Buy Price = 27.09ct. I'll most likely try to sell some @ 27ct even though there's a very high likelihood that they will continue with their Buy Back till 28ct (previous high)… 😀

Sell @ $0.255

There was a hint in the pre-open Buy / Sell Q that Shares Buy Back will be in action. It was very close to the calculated Max Average Buy Back Price of $0.2531 ie 62% @ $0.255 ; 38% @ $0.25. I placed my regular sell order @ $0.25 and today, it got done just after lunch (earlier than usual). The CP is Kim Eng, not the regular one from Phillip. I suspect Traders may be jumping in when their Charts is telling them to… (Increasing Price at healthy volume).

After mkt close, Shares Buy Back SGX Annc,

• 1,019,000 @ $0.25178
• Vol = 1,812,000 ; Range = 25 to 26ct (fm LS,  only 1 lot at 26ct)

For tomorrow, Max Buy Back Average Price = $0.2583 or 34% @ 25.5ct ; 66% @ 26ct

BTW, I checked the URA site (updates on mid-mth) and there were no new sale of 8Raja units…

Sell @ $0.25

The calculated Shares Buy Back Max Buy Price = $0.2478 or 44% @ 24.5ct ; 56% @ 25ct

For today, there were no giveaway in the Mkt open Buy & Sell Q… Other than that, the script follows closely to that of yesterday,

• A slow start
• A huge Sell Q (much bigger than yesterday) coupled with a low Buy Q
  • Sellers finally "motivated" to sell to Buy Q
  • Buy Q got topped up.. but in smaller Qty than yesterday
  • Bigger sellers appeared, perhaps "motivated" by the long weekends – perhaps fears of Shares Buy Back going MIA (not unfounded based on past track record)
• Nibbling @ 25ct Buy Q started after lunch followed by a huge buy in the late afternoon

What I did was to put some in 25ct & 25.5ct Sell Q, despite the huge Q (close to 900 lots). The 25ct ones were done.

We're now cautiously hopeful that they may continue to do the Shares Buy Back, perhaps till slightly below NAV = 27.61ct (their highest was 28ct, above NAV).

Current gameplan is to continue selling with every 0.5ct bid up, but, now in smaller Qty. Perhaps an Inverse Pyramid approach ie. Bigger Qty at higher prices.

After mkt close, SGX Annc on Shares Buy Back,

• 2,294,000 @ $0.2473 (slightly below calculated $0.2378)
• Vol = 2,947,000 ; Range 24.5ct to 25ct

For the next trading day on 21-Apr (Mon),

• Max Buy Price = 25.31ct
• 62% @ 25.5ct ; 38% @ 25ct

 

Sell @ $0.2441

The highlights of today… 😀

We were spot on when we guessed that Shares Buy Back is in action today..The first clue was the Buy Q @ $0.24 and Sell Q @ $0.245 when mkt opened. The ratio was exactly the same as what I'd calculated for Max Buy Back Price = $0.2436 ie. 72% @ $0.245 ; 28% @ $0.24 ie. The probability was very high that their Broker must have calculated the Qty to put in the Buy Q based on the Sell Q Qty…

The problem is… someone must sell to them @ $0.24 before they can buy some from the Sell Q @ $0.245..

To further test our hypothesis, I added more Qty to the Sell Q @ $0.245 to see if the Buy Q @ $0.24 rises in tandem.. But, the growing Sell Q must have motivated others to sell to the Buy Q instead… True enough, someone immediately did a buy @ $0.245 + Buy Q Qty got bigger… Interesting… I sold some to Buy Q to see if more Buys will be done @ $0.245…

At this point, the strategy must have changed. No more Buys @ $0.245 as the Sell Q grew bigger and more sellers got motivated to sell to Buyer @ $0.24. Here, we also guesstimated that the Broker will likely continue to accumulate at $0.24 and only do a huge Buy @ $0.245 in the late afternoon.

Bingo! We guessed correctly!

At this point, our guesstimates become more complicated as we were adding in the possibility of Buys @ $0.25 (a 3rd variable). Based on our dynamic formula in spreadsheet, the Broker could have bought ~100 to 250 lots @ $0.25 at different point in time (when different Qty were done at 24  & 24.5) and perhaps try to drive up the Closeing Price. But, that did not happen…

After mkt closed, Shares Buy Back was announced. Some data,

• 1,800,000 @ $0.24326 (vs Calculated Price = $$0.2436)
• Vol = 2,215,000 ; Range 24 to 24.5ct

For tomorrow, calculated Max Buy Price = $0.2478 or 44% @ $0.245 ; 56% @ $0.25

BUT, note that their Shares Buy Back activities had been very inconsistent,

• 8mths since last one on 7-Aug-13
• Mostly 1-day hit-and-run
• Longest 4 consecutive days, twice

This time round, they did their Shares Buy Back 2 days ago and then MIA for one day before resuming today..

This unpredictability helped me to decide to sell + of course their weakening profitability… With today's selling, my remaining ones are the "pioneer" ones bought at 17.1 to 18.4ct..  I'll likely continue to sell on the way up (if that happens) as I'm not too optimistic based on the following reasons,

• Profitability will remain weakened as it's due to rising costs (Admin + Selling)
• Property mkt is softening. Matter of time before they write down 8Raja as it's not moving => Likely Losses (but accounting losses ie. no actual cash)

The only reason that's holding me back from dumping all is their strong Balance Sheet. Cash = 15.12ct and if they do manage to sell any 8Raja units (even at a loss), it'll add on more cash (6.29ct / share)…

Other thoughts that I have are,

• Capital Reduction or Special Div. But, very unlikely unless they give up the Property Biz (which needs lots of cash to buy land and develop it).
• General Offer – Mr Chou's stake just crossed 60% after the last Shares Buy Back. IMO, too low a % for a successful G.O. unless it's offered at a huge premium. Shares Buy Back is indirectly helping to increase his % but for the 1st year, they did only 3.186% (out of 10% max). For the 2nd year, only 0.356% (mandate expires on 22-Aug-14). So, likely need another 3 years before Mr Chou crosses 70%.. just in time for his 80th birthday..