Category: Popular Hldgs

Sell @ $0.235, $0.24

Good thing I was busy in the AM and wasn't monitoring as I was planning to sell @ $0.225 a few days back but raised my target to $0.23 when I noticed some buying.  Vol = 1,738,000 ; Range = $0.23 to $0.245

After mkt closed, SGX Annc of Shares Buy Back (Finally! After 8mths as last one was on -Aug-13!). Details,

• 1,100,000 @ $0.2358

We were highly suspicious it was Shares Buy Back in action and calculated the Max Buy Price (allowable) = $0.2363 based on,

• 105% * Average Closing for Past 5 Sessions

Closing Prices,

• 11-Apr (Fri) : $0.23
• 10-Apr (Thu) : $0.225
• 9-Apr (Wed) : $0.225
• 8-Apr (Tue) : $0.225
• 7-Apr (Mon) : $0.22

With today's close of $0.24, tomorrow's Max Buy Price = $0.2405 ie. Will be mostly @ $0.24 if they continue with their Shares Buy Back. Total Shares Buy Back for the 1-year mandate = 3.316% ie. still have lots of leeway to 10% max.

I'll be keeping my fingers crossed as I plan to sell more… Estimated to hit $0.245 Max Buy Price on Wed / Thu if they continue buying.. BUT, they'd previously ever done 1-day of Shares Buy Back and then went MIA for months…. 😀

 

Sell @ $0.225

Cleared all my loss making ones thro' creative accounting… Average cost now $0.187… Will likely continue to pare down my stake as and when opportunity arises.. can be due to other alternatives… 😀

Sell @ $0.225

A difficult decision to sell… From the last results for Q3 (Jan-14), the Balance Sheet appears stronger, with an increase in Cash (mainly due to sale of Properties) but a weakening of Net Profits (due to increasing expenses – altho' they seem to imply it is mainly one-off due to more Trade Shows). Still, I decided to pare down my exposure (still quite huge) to free up more cash for alternatives… 😀

I'm recognising a huge loss here as I'm cutting off the highest priced buys @ $0.25+. Main reasons for this Creative Accounting,

• Enough profits in Mar-14 to offset the losses
• Less painful (psychologically) to do further selling if prices do drop further (average cost pf balance = 19.3ct) if biz worsens

Buy @ $0.225

Continue to add back… 😀

Buy @ $0.225

Q3 results is expected by 15-Mar (last year) and I have decided to buy back some during their Blackout Period. No, I'm not expecting good results but at current prices, I'm betting it'd factored in bad results, similar to Q2 drop in EPS of ~-0.2ct. My thoughts about the EPS,

• Most Likely = aro' 1.2ct
• Hopeful = 1.2 to 1.4ct (similar to past 4 years)
• Dream >1.4ct
• Nightmare <1 ct (Not impossible as they may do a write-down for 8Raja since they'd been unable to sell…)

As I'd sold down my holdings quite substantially previously, I'll likely be buying more on any price weaknesses. At $0.23 close,

• PE (latest 4Qs) = 9.43 (can go above 10 if Q3 EPS < 1.2ct)
• Yield = 4.35%
• Cash = 12.4ct / share or Net Cash (minus Debts) = 7.1ct / share

Property continues to be a drag and is not expected to provide any lift to EPS soon… My estimate on a potential write-down for 8Raja,

• As of Q2, 'Properties Held for Sale' = $53,587,000
• Assuming a 10% Write-Down
  • => $5,358,700 or 0.66ct / share
  • => Reduction of 0.66ct to EPS
  • => Previous Years' Q3 EPS = 1.2ct to 1.4ct becomes 0.54ct to 0.74ct

So, a potential shock for Q3 results… but, a non-cash item.. 😀

Still, mkt will whack down share price if that happens…

 

Sell @ $0.23

Decided to contra off as it's due for payment. With the usual low volume, for a while, someone was trying to create a false impression of rising prices cum demand by buying 1 lot @ $0.235 for +1ct, coupled with a Buy Q of 120 lots @ $0.23. I must have started a mini panic selling… 😀

Sell @ $0.23

Contra off some when there was a sudden buy up. I cleared whatever was left in the $0.23 Buy Q and must have triggered some heavy selling back to $0.22-$0.225 levels.. I was hoping Shares Buy Back had been activated but doesn't seem so.. 😀

Buy @ $0.225, $0.22

Just doing my job to provide some support to the share price… The coming Q3 (Jan) results is seasonally their best but with Q2 having turned in a loss plus weakness in EPS since 2013, I'm not too surprised at the recent continued price weakness… Shares Buy Back was last seen on 7-Aug-13…  Cash level had also been declining since 2013… A rather gloomy future…

My original intention was to reduce my stake but at today's prices, I decided to take a bet… by buying… I'm not expecting any positive surprise for the coming results as 8Raja sales had been pathethic.. only a couple of units and unlikely to turn in a profit. Still, the Dec period is the time for them to make the most EPS and likely to stay above 1ct (1.2 to 1.4ct for previous years). The wild card will be Shares Buy Back… but I'm not placing too much hopes..

Going forward, biz ought to stay profitable, even if it continues to decline. 2014 ought to see the completion of their new office cum warehouse and result in some savings from rental expenses… Let's see..

But, I may still suddenly cut off my entire stake if there're better alternatives… 😀

Buy @ $0.245

Went to Q in the AM and got done…. Was sloppy as I checked (last year was on 10-Dec) but didn't see that they'd reported their 1H results last night….

A loss of 0.01ct / share on their seasonally weakest Q…. No Interim Div, same as last year… Losses are due to higher Expenses in Selling + Advertising (more Book Fairs) + Admin Expenses (higher manpower for promos..). I believe hidden in the numbers must be the costs involved in closing down Prologue @ Ion. Other negatives are Properties (no units sold for 8Raja)… NAV = 26.68ct (dropped from 27.83ct, mainly due to 1ct Div paid).

IMO, the only support now will have to come from Shares Buy-Back (or Mr Chou) and the NAV will provide a good gauge on the price ceiling… (Last Buy Back was on 7-Aug @ $0.28 high). To be conservative, perhaps a max of 26.5ct is possible. Longer term, next Q (Jan-14) is seasonally the strongest Q (altho' they could be start-up costs for Borders @ WestGate and new Popular store @ Bedok Mall. Still, my projection is any price recovery (if no Shares Buy-Back) will likely occur closer to Mar-14 (when they report Q3 results).

My target is to sell on any spikes (esp. Shares Buy Back) and buy on any dips (monitor Black Out period closely)… 😀

Sell @ $0.265

Was alerted by Sam towards 4pm of serious buy up going on. Decided to slowly (in 3 tranches) contra off the 2 earlier buys plus another batch bought on 29-Oct. The Buyer CP is '20' – Phillip for all. 😀

It may be Shares Buy Back in action. The last one was @ $0.28 on 7-Aug. With the next result due (last year was on 10-Dec), the estimated Blackout Period of 30-days will start by end next week. If it's really Shares Buy Back, there'll be a window period of only one week.

Left one $0.255 batch and another of $0.26. The rest are my "pioneer" buys. As my original intention for the recent buys were for short term, these will be sold, target, within the week (if the price is right). My reasoning is that during the Blackout period, the chances of share prices falling back is high. Further, I'm expecting the next result (seasonally the weakest) to have no positive upside – Poor sales of 8Raja + Likely write-down for Ion Prologue closure.