SATS @ $3.07

Buy @ $3.07

Was studying the operating data which was released on 20-Apr…. After comparing past Quarters of Operating Data with the Quarterly Results, I couldn't conclude any good correlation… I think the EPS finally also depends on how well they managed their expenses… Take the risk, buy some more as prices are lower… by 1ct… 😀

SATS @ $3.08

Buy @ $3.08

A new addition to my portfolio. Based on 9M EPS = 12.9ct, am expecting FY14 EPS to at least match FY13 EPS = 16.1ct. Chances of maintaining 2H Div = 8ct is therefore high. Further, with Cash (Dec-14) = 32.26ct, at a healthy level, there's the added incentive for their parent (SIA) to milk this Cash Cow, especially since the other Cash Cow (SIAEC) is facing weakened EPS and Cash level is not at a very high level, after being "milked" last year. In the best case, for SATS, Div could be 1-4ct more, but note that Cash lvl for 9M14 is about the same as 9M13 when they were not 'milked' by SIA… 😀

SATS @ $3.08

Sell @ $3.08

Contra off as overdue for payment. No more left. Was waiting greedily for higher prices but no strength… peaked at $3.10-$3.11…

One of my best Yield Rotation Strategy play as it became profitable from the day of buy. This is in sync with my observations that we (small-timers) do have the advantage of being nimble ie. within the first hours of trading after a results announcement… but, we need to be right on our analysis… that's the hardest part… 😀

Will keep in watch list for Mar Q as Div Payout Q.

SATS @ $3.0176

Buy @ $3.02, $3.01

A new addition to my portfolio. Q3 results were out last evening. EPS = 4.3ct vs 3.8ct y-o-y & 4.2ct q-o-q looks ok to me. Tried to jump-Q @ $2.99 just before mkt opened but was too slow… The $2.99 Sell Q was initially a lot more than the Buy Q but just before matching at 8:58am, many were withdrawn… It quickly went up to a high of $3.04 before coming down again and that's when I got mine from the Buy Q… Read a couple of analysts' reports who were not too positive…. Nvm, can also keep till Q4 (Mar) for the div…. 😀

SATS @ $3.03

Sell @ $3.03

Contra off, no more. With STI turning red today, I think I better consolidate my resources ie. Reduce the stocks in my portfolio in order to focus my free cash on a couple of them. If STI should drop further, the next step for me (when free cash runs low) would be to sell some of the stocks which'd not dropped as much (in % terms) and switch to those that'd dropped a lot more. Not forgetting,  have to be based on fundamentals and valuations… 😀

SATS @ $3.01

Buy @ $3.01

Add back to my portfolio. Jump-Q during 5pm matching.

Buying as part of Yield otation Stategy (Q2 results last year on 5-Oct ; Div 5ct) and will likely trade on opportunity. EPS for Q1 was weaker y-o-y and have to be prepared that Q2 may face the same weakness.

SATS @ $3.17

Buy @ $3.17

Itchy fingers, add back to my portfolio after last Sell @ $3.13 on 24-Apr. Q4 Results will be out on 22-May, there should be price support as it starts to behave like a quasi-bond. Dividends vs EPS,

 

EPS

Total Div

Interim

Final

Special

Cash(Q3)

Cash(Q4)

FY14 (Mar)

??

??

5ct

??

??

$355M

??

FY13 (Mar)

16.6ct

15ct

5ct

6ct

4ct

$272M

$406M

FY12 (Mar)

15.4ct

26ct

5ct

6ct

15ct

$423M

$472M

FY11 (Mar)

17.4ct

17ct

5ct

6ct

6ct

$169M

$304M

FY10 (Mar)

16.7ct

13ct

5ct

8ct

$141M

$196M

 

Observations

  • Interim Div = 5ct fm FY10
  • Final Div = 6ct fm FY11 + Special Div (Variable)
    • When Cash Level is Low, Special Div Depends on EPS
    • When Cash Level is High, Special Div Depends on EPS + Excess Cash
  • Fm FY10 to FY14, the MEDIAN Quarterly Operating Profit is $45M
    • Ranges fm $31M to $58M with most within Range of $41M to $45M
    • Allows me to do a Ball-Park Estimate of the Incremental Cash fm Q3 to Q4
  • On 20-Feb, they announced completion of $118M acquisition of a stake in PT Cardig
    • If paid within Q4 (Mar), Q3 Cash drops fm $355M to $236M (lower than Q313 = $272M)
  • EPS Comparison
    • 9M : 9M13 = 12.4ct vs 9M14 = 12.3ct
    • Q3 : Q313 = 4.2ct vs Q314 = 3.8ct

 

Comments

  • Despite their calling off the $110M acquisition proposal for Singapore Cruise Centre on 12-May, the chances of a Special Div much higher than 6ct (Ball Park estimate is max 8.5ct if parent SIA is desperate for Cash) appears to be remote (assuming $118M had been paid for the Indo co acquisition)
    • Note that UOBKH analyst is expecting a bigger Special Dividend
  • My FY14 EPS is projected to be 16.1ct to 16.5ct and this may cap the Special Div to 3.5ct to 4ct (same as FY13)
  • Estimated Range of Final Div = 6ct + 3.5ct to 8.5ct

 

Conclusion

In spite of the low possibility of a higher than 6ct Special Div (plus high possibility of only 3.5ct to 4ct), I'm still taking the risk to buy as there'll likely be good price support till xd date due to the quasi-bond behaviour. But, of course, no guarantee… 😀

 

 

Sell @ $3.21

Contra off as I was starting to have some misgivings… Jump-Q at 5pm matching and got lucky as it closed at 1-2bids higher than my expectations.

After buying due to itchy fingers syndrome, I went back to read their recent SGX Annc again, 2 of which made me change my mind,

  • Shares Buy Back
    • This is one of the positives for me as it helps to provide share price support and stability, especially in times of mkt stress
    • Last Shares Buy Back was on 11-Mar ; 100,000 @ $3
      • My perception was there were more recent Buy Back @ closer to $3.20…. Oops…
    • Data was released on 22-Apr
    • Went to check Q3 Operating Data (20-Jan) vs Financials (11-Feb)
      • Can do a good projection of Operating Profit as close co-relation
      • Using this approach, Q4 Operating Profit will likely follow Q3 trend ie. weaker yoy

Due to the above reasons, I decided to contra off…. May come back again if fingers get itchy again…

 

 

 

SATS @ $3.13

Sell @ $3.13

Decided to clear my last lots as I have been adding new stocks to my portfolio and my hands are getting full. Need to focus… both time and money on fewer stocks so that I can do a better job… 😀

SATS @ $3.13

Sell @ $3.13

Take profit during the pre-results announcement phase of the Yields Rotation Strategy. On a day when STI is -19.52 @ 3258.01, SATS is surprisingly strong… +3ct @ $3.13 plus good Vol = 1,169,000 ; Range $3.10 to $3.14… 😀