Portfolio – Q214

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q214 close,

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

UMS

79.7%

Frasers Com Tr

NeraTel

Genting Sing

Saizen REIT

< 5%

Forterra Trust

2.9%

Kingsmen Creative

Cash

  

17.4%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 

Summary

The STI closed at 3256.67, +2.786% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -7.93% (Cost) / -12.34% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : -4.46% (Unrealised Losses) + 3.27% (Realised) + 3.35% (Div) = +2.16%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : 2.06% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 1.21% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +2.16% vs +2.786% (STI), worse than STI. My worst fears happened… falling down to earth due to the sell-down of UMS by CEO and AMAT. The fears continue to linger… CEO seems intent on divesting his entire stake…

For Q214, I decided to take profits for Popular Hldgs & Neratel. For Popular Hldgs, I have divested my entire stake due to my fears of their continued weakness in profitability. As for Neratel, I’d previously amassed a huge extra in anticipation of their year end 4ct dividend. As there were no positive surprise and mgmt appeared to have changed their intention to realise shareholder value (by spinoff + more aggressive growth plans), I have since sold the extras plus some of the original ones.

Current market fears is focused on Iraq as the fighting there may cause a bigger oil crisis. But, somehow, I think US is playing a bigger game there and I doubt that they’ll allow it to develop into a bigger crisis.

For Q314, I’ll start with the usual focus on REITs Quarterly reporting. As for UMS, I’ll likely focus on the 1-mth Blackout period from B-Jul to B-Aug for action, if any. Fundamentally, UMS look better by the day (due to price drop) and the main danger now is irregularities ie CEO knows something we don’t… I’ll likely be spending lots of time on this dilemma…

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q114)

  • New Additions : FCOT, Kingsmen
  • Increases : UMS, Genting, Saizen
  • Decreases : NeraTel
  • No Change : Forterra
  • No More : Popular, A-HTrust, SB REIT, STEng, SIAEC, FCT, SBSTransit

 

Exchange Rates

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) -6.58% : LMIR – Don’t look good
  • AUD (Australia $) +0.77% : A-Htrust, Singtel – Mildly +ve
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +0.88% or +2.48% (vs end-Dec): Saizen – Slightly +ve for Jun DPU

UMS @ $0.5525

Buy @ $0.5525

Seller CP = Phillip, not the broker for CEO, but, sure have a lot to sell… 😀

FCOT @ $1.34

Buy @ $1.34

Add to my holdings, now my No.2 (in conjunction with my selling down of Neratel). Can only pray that our Aug-14 date works out to be ok… 😀

As I now have a big enough holding, I may be tempted to trade…

UMS @ $0.5625

Buy @ $0.565, $0.56

The rise last Friday may have been due to the release of the semi.org BB data, which I'd forgotten to check. BB = 1 may not seem very optimistic but both 'B's stays around US$1.4Bil, which is comforting to me. In fact, I was afraid UMS share price may not fall back to my target levels… However, the moment I Q'd at $0.565, someone cleared it with a 300-500 lots sell (I checked CP = DMG, not likely to be Andy as his should be UOBKH). Quite scary though to see my $0.56 Q also being done… 😀

 

 

Neratel @ $0.7602

Sell @ $0.765, $0.76

Cleared all my extras plus some of the original ones which I’d intended to hold for longer term yield. Went to check on their FCF (Free Cash Flow) to see if an Interim Dividend is possible but instead, see that for past 2 years, FCF/share was less than the usual 4ct Total Div,

Year

OCF

CAPEX

FCF

FY13

6.64ct

3.26ct

3.38ct

FY12

4.46ct

1.20ct

3.26ct

FY11

7.22ct

1.18ct

6.04ct

FY10

6.35ct

0.61ct

5,74ct

FY09

5.10ct

0.51ct

5.00ct

FY08

4.73ct

0.99ct

3.74ct

 

There was a big increase in CAPEX in FY13, likely as per their new Leasing model. FY14 will be interesting to see if that’s going to results in higher OCF (Operating Cash Flow). For now, it looks unlikely Total Div will be increased from the current 4ct, unless they dip into their Cash (11.53ct / share).

UMS @ $0.57

Sell @ $0.57

Take profit on the single batch that's profitable. With the fears lingering in the market after the Double-A (Andy – CEO & AMAT) sell-off, I'm not expecting prices to recover to recent highs (the same thing happened in 2012 and that was the original reason I was hesistant to buy and hold..but which I unfortunately overcome when the industry cycle went up…).

My expected "safe" period to go for longer term hold would be around 6-Jul to 6-Aug ie estimated Blackout period based on last year's Q2 results (6-Aug-13). From now till then, better to go for short term trades or shorts… 😀

Popular Hldgs @ $0.265

Sell @ $0.265

Someone put in a 500 lots buy, gives me the choice to sell off the last of my holdings. It's the Blackout period now and I may buy back on any price weakness, if fingers get itchy… For now, my crystal ball cannot see any reversal in their weaker profits trend…

Bye bye Popular and thanks for the past 27mths of Roller-Coaster fun… 😀

Neratel @ $0.7564

Sell @ $0.755, $0.76

Looks like accumulation is going on… been going on for a while now. Either insiders or someone buying ahead of Interim results, expecting the 2ct div to be repeated. But, looking at EPS, it's highly unlikely… max perhaps 1ct, unless it's coming from better Cash Flows. Milkman may also have motivations to milk the cow as their Indonesia Equity Funds may be under pressure..

Anyway, still sell my extras.. Left one last batch of extras… 😀

Kingsmen @ $0.915

Buy @ $0.915

Back as shareholder… School hols now, little free time.. Q'd for fun before going out and was partially done… 😀