KINV

Buy @ $0.55

Prices continued to drop… Today, I waited for a while before I bought. Looking at the huge volume, very likely, CEO or AMAT is continuing with their selling… Feels like closing down sale… not GSS… 😀

Mkt data,

• Vol = 18,404,000
• Range = $0.545 to $0.58
• Close = $0.565

After mkt closed, SGX Annc on more selling by CEO…6,000,000 @ $0.6257 on 10-Jun… I won't be very surprised if he's planning to quit… perhaps sick and tired after running the biz since he started it after leaving college… Be prepared for the worst.. although fundamentally, it's getting more and more attractive by the day..

Buy @ $0.665, $0.65, $0.64, $0.635, $0.61, $0.605, $0.595

After a one day respite, the selling started again today in earnest. OSK-DMG released a very negative report with a SELL recommendation and target price reduced to $0.47 (from $0.88 on 9-May). This is based on,

• Selling by AMAT + CEO
• Cloudy outlook for Margins (based on their channel investigation)

Mkt data for today,

• Vol = 15,955,000
• Range = $0.595 to $0.685
• Close = $0.595

The Buyer CP comes from all over… Looks like OSK-DMG (plus perhaps other analysts) have successfully started a mass selling stampede by just tagging their main reasons on the majority shareholders' (CEO + AMAT) recent selling…  Looks like all set to drop towards their target price of $0.47… I don't see any "daylight" till next Q results (6-Aug last year) proves the analysts wrong (on the margins) or CEO + AMAT stops their selling …

Darn scary… Feels like Titanic is sinking and it's everyone for themself … 😀

Buy @ $0.71, $0.705, $0.695, $0.69, $0.685, $0.68, $0.66

xbi today.

• Vol = 15,131,000
• Range = $0.66 to $0.76
• Close = $0.66

Based on theorectical xbi price = $0.724, a drop of 8.8% at $0.66 close. The sell down was fierce and relentless… Most likely, CEO is responsible (CP = UOBKH) plus possibly AMAT (CP = Morgan Stanley), wait for SGX confirmation.

Very scary… reminds me of REITs 1st day listing a long time ago…

To check on the above possibility, the tabulated CEO sales over the past years.

Observations,

• CEO sales started from 2012
  • Twice per year on consecutive days (2-Mar-13 & 3-Mar-13 are weekends)
  • In Mar for ’13 & ’14 ; Apr for ’12
  • Already sold for 2014!

So, if the same pattern is maintained this year, it may not be CEO selling today. My fingers now point towards AMAT. It’d also explain that tiny sale on 2-Jun followed by a possibly full divestment. If that’s the case, we may see continued selling for at least one more day. For their recent sale, AMAT only reported 2 days later. So, we may not know till next Monday.

Nevertheless, if we focus on the fundamentals, at $0.66,

• PE = 9.82 (FY13) or 8.81 (latest 4Qs)
• Yield = 7.879% (incl. Special Div) or 6.061% (excl Special Div)
• Cash = 11.49ct / share -> 9.2ct / share (Enlarged Base from Bonus Issue)

Fundamentally, looks ok… unless there’s fraud, like S-Chips…

I sill have enough in my warchest for further buys… although the experience today was not very good for the heart, to see it under continuous attack and prices getting lower and lower… 😀

Most of my today’s buys were done in a separate account, so that I can contra off at a lower price  if it were to rebound… So, I remain flexible to either buy or sell depending on price…

Buy @ $0.915, $0.895

Last day of cbi. Came under selling pressure (same selling pattern as yesterday, likely same responsible group) and dropped to intraday low of $0.885,

• Range = $0.885 to $0.93
• Vol = 2,876,000
• Close = $0.91

For tomorrow, the xbi computation,

Note : Bonus share also cd for Div = 1ct (xd on 11-Jul).

Am prepared to buy more on dips… 😀

After mkt closed, there was an SGX Annc that AMAT had sold 193,000 shares on 2-Jun @ Avg Price = 95.37ct, which reduced their sake from 6% to 5.95%.

Hmm… for a large co. like AMAT, I wonder why they need the $184k proceeds.. ?? A couple of possibilities,

• AMAT continue to sell yesterday and today, causing the share price to drop (will know from SGX Annc soon)
• Insiders decided to play safe after getting hold of AMAT sales info

If AMAT continues to sell and reduce their stake in UMS, it'd be a negative to me… Still, AMAT and UMS had just signed a 5-yr agreement (according to Maybank report dated Jan-14, refer to FB 'Investment' Page) for 80% of their Endura equipments… Should be ok, unless Endura is going obsolete… More homework to do!