Buy @ $0.955
Jump-Q during 9am matching. My bet is getting quite substantial… they better come up with a good recommendation to realise shareholder value in 1st half of June… 😀
Saizen @ $0.955
SGX @ $6.95
Sell @ $6.95
Contra off for some kopi-$$. The observation is that someone had been selling and preventing it from hitting higher. Decided to take profits first as it looks good for multiple short term trades… 😀
Buy @ $6.89
Jump-Q during 5pm matching to buy back. Looks like someone really have lots to sell… 😀
Neratel @ $0.7403
Sell @ $0.74, $0.745 (Partially done)
Finally get to sell some of my extras after xd. Mkt is bullish today, with STI +28.87 @ 3300.71 (barely crossed above 3300). Perhaps it's due to the Singpost – Alibaba proposal announced yesterday where Alibaba will take a 10.35% stake in Singpost via New Shares @ $1.42 + Treasury Shares, as we're not seeing the same bullishness in the regional markets.
It could also be due to expectations of a repeat of the 2ct Interim Div paid last year (from excess cash after acquiring Nera Malaysia). Looking at their EPS, this is very unlikely. Perhaps, at most 1ct to 1.5ct (Interim) + 4ct (Final), have to look at their Cash Flow in detail or EPS ramps up due to their recurring Leasing income gaining critical mass..
I still have more extras to sell. As I have cleared all my > $0.715 ones, I also have the option to buy back if it should drop to $0.72-$0.725 or lower… 😀
Note that it was Q213 (Jun) when they did the Nera Malaysia acquisition which resulted in EPS = 2.9ct (1.93ct due to acquisition gains). We'll therefore see a "big drop" in EPS for Q214 (Jun) in the absence of such extraordinary gains and I don't know how the market will react to this when they release their Q2 results (8-Aug last year), especially if they're unable to repeat the 2ct Interim Div..
SGX @ $6.90
Buy @ $6.90
A new stock to my portfolio. Just added to YieldStocks blog this month as it meets our min. 4% yield criteria. Some info,
- Div 4ct / Q with extra Variable Div in Q4, depending on excess cash
- For FY13, Variable Div = 12ct
- FY13 EPS = 31.43ct vs Div = 28ct
- FY12 EPS = 27.32ct vs Div = 27ct
- FY14 9M EPS = 22.72ct
- Q414 (Jun) likely to see yoy drop due to lower volumes seen from Q314
- My estimate is FY14 EPS = 29ct but still possible to match FY13 Div = 28ct
SGX releases monthly business data. So far, for Q4, April data had seen a huge drop yoy and May is expected to follow the same trend.
Despite my expectation of a continued weaker Q4 yoy, I have decided to start buying SGX at current prices as I'm expecting the expected high Q4 absolute Div to provide good support to share prices…. I hope… Any drop, especially after they release weaker yoy monthly data, I plan to collect more. Will treat it as a replacement (currently SIAEC) stock for the Yield Rotation Strategy 😀
Popular Hldgs @ $0.265
Sell @ $0.265
Gave up waiting for the mysterious 27ct buyer to return. Most likely, it's their old friend at Mellford, which had been steadily increasing their stake over the years,
- 2013 : 29,714,000 or 3.63%
- 2012 : 19,013,000 or 2.26%
- 2011 : 16,556,000 or 1.97%
If it's indeed Mellford, my original dream scenario of a delisting will likely come sooner… but may still take 1-2 years, depending on the speed of Shares Buy Back (which can be accelerated by more bad results…).
My urgency to sell is Blackout period will happen soon. Last year, it was on 27-May-13 as FY13 (Apr) was released on 27-Jun-13. For FY results, it has to be released within 60-days of FY end ie 30-Jun in this case as their FY end is end-Apr. What happened last year during this period,
- Shares Buy Back on 27-May-13 (prior to that, last buy on 8-Feb), the last day, drove the price up 0.5- 1ct
- During Blackout period, it initially went up 0.5ct-1ct for a few days but subsequently dropped 2ct
- After FY results were announced on 27-Jun-13, Buy Back resumed on 4-Jul-13, 18,26,30,31-Jul & 8-Aug before it went MIA till 14-Apr-14
Looking back, we were seeing weaker reults for FY13, after a strong FY12 that was driven by strong growth in Malaysia and a recovery in their Property biz. For FY14, we are seeing weaker Earnings due to higher costs plus an almost non-existent contribution from their Property biz. In fact, FY14 looks set to be their worst since FY09 when they went into the red. In the worst case, they may have to write down their unsold units at 8Raja since they'd not been able to sell.
The only positive left for me is their strong Cash position of $123Mil (15ct / share or 10ct / share net of debts).
Current GamePlan,
- Sell at min. 26.5ct, possibly till zero holding
- Buy back some if it drops to 25ct during Blackout period
- Sell back to them if weak results are announced and Shares Buy Back is resumed
- Buy back more at lower prices below 25ct till FY15 results
The above is subject to change, depending on the Quarterly results…
PS. I'm expecting weaker results, similar to Q1-Q3. If I'm wrong, I'll miss out on any upside opportunity… Their persistent Share Buy Back since 14-Apr-14 is making me think I have a high chance of being wrong… This is not impossible as they could have played with the timing ie. recognising Expenses ahead and pushing Profits till last Q, especially for their Book Fairs…. 😀
Saizen @ $0.955
Buy @ $0.955
Jump Q during 5pm mtaching to get some to average down my $1+ ones. Had been too indecisive on adding more since it was $0.90-$0.92 as their Financials are not easy to understand… I think too much financial engineering in REITs nowadays, making it more challenging to understand.
Anyway, it jumped from aro' $0.92 to $0.975 recently. The likely reason is they have hired consultants to do a recommendation and this is expected to be completed soon, in 1st Half of June. What's interesting are,
- Cash = JPY 5Bil or S$62Mil => 22ct / share
- NAV = $1.17 or 18.38% Discount @ $0.955
My most preferred recommendation that can happen is the liquidation of Saizen, similar to what happened at MIIF. If this happens, they could possibly first pay out part of the 22ct / Share Cash as Capital Returns followed by the sale of their assets (which may take a while). This may result in a possible return of 15-20%.
The worst case recommendation would be a continuation of their current business, perhaps with Equity / Debt Fund Raising to grow their AUM….
Other factors considered,
- Yield = 6.81% ; Gearing = 38% or 32% (Net of Cash)
- 2H (Jun) around the corner and expected DPU = 3ct+
- JPY after weakening by 30% from 2012 to 2103 has been stable since Nov-13
- Abenomics appears to be working for now
In the short term, I'll likely collect more to bring down my average price further. Any change in plan will be after the recommendations are released… 😀
SBSTransit @ $1.512
Sell @ $1.515, $1.51, $1.485 (odd lot)
This is the last of my legacy stocks (except for SPH odd lot) which was bought in Feb-08 and Apr-08 at $2.31 to $2.56. Back then, it was a Cash Rich company and pays good dividends (100% payout) and yields aro' 8-10% for FY07 and earlier), The decline started in '08 when Cash started to disappear (likely CAPEX for new buses and trains) and Payout was reduced to 50%. From '10, Debts started to appear and ballooned to $400Mil by the recent Q.
A good lesson here… not to just buy and hold as a good thing may not last forever. Have to be continuously be in touch with the business and on hindsight, '08 was the turning point of a good Cash Cow becoming a Highly Geared, Low Margin business…
LTA just announced a new Contracting Model for the Bus Industry. By 2016, we'll see an Asset Light model where operators like SBS do not own the Bus Assets but gets paid (based on their tendered amount) to operate the bus services. Share prices had gone up even prior to the announcement and today, I decided to get rid of my legacy holdings… Big losses, but on the bright side, it's a lot higher than end-Apr close of $1.25…. will add to my NAV… 😀
Prices continued to go up after I sold and closed @ $1.60. PE = 44.2 ; Yield = 1.125%… Wow! Looks like the valuations for a good Growth Stock!! I suppose it's possible if we treat it as a Turnaround Stock. Will have to figure out when the turnaround is going to happen…
SIAEC @ $4.97
Sell @ $4.97
Decided to take more profits. Treat it as taking the 18ct dividends (with discount) in advance. My warchest is getting bigger again, have to look for any Yield Rotataion Strategy target… Perhaps if SATS drop to $3.0x or SGX < $6.90 (patiently waiting for bigger drops after May data is published as likely big drop yoy since May-13 was strong).
Good to see collectors around… 😀