Buy @ $0.955
Jump Q during 5pm mtaching to get some to average down my $1+ ones. Had been too indecisive on adding more since it was $0.90-$0.92 as their Financials are not easy to understand… I think too much financial engineering in REITs nowadays, making it more challenging to understand.
Anyway, it jumped from aro' $0.92 to $0.975 recently. The likely reason is they have hired consultants to do a recommendation and this is expected to be completed soon, in 1st Half of June. What's interesting are,
- Cash = JPY 5Bil or S$62Mil => 22ct / share
- NAV = $1.17 or 18.38% Discount @ $0.955
My most preferred recommendation that can happen is the liquidation of Saizen, similar to what happened at MIIF. If this happens, they could possibly first pay out part of the 22ct / Share Cash as Capital Returns followed by the sale of their assets (which may take a while). This may result in a possible return of 15-20%.
The worst case recommendation would be a continuation of their current business, perhaps with Equity / Debt Fund Raising to grow their AUM….
Other factors considered,
- Yield = 6.81% ; Gearing = 38% or 32% (Net of Cash)
- 2H (Jun) around the corner and expected DPU = 3ct+
- JPY after weakening by 30% from 2012 to 2103 has been stable since Nov-13
- Abenomics appears to be working for now
In the short term, I'll likely collect more to bring down my average price further. Any change in plan will be after the recommendations are released… 😀