Posts

Posted on

SIAEC @ $4.95

Sell @ $4.95

Decided to take some profits. Using Financial Engineering, will be recognising the sale for my most expensive buys @ $4.88  $4.85. Gives me the flexibility to buy back at higher prices on any drops as the existing holding can easily average it down. STI is weak today, likely affected by US overnight drop due to a likely earlier rate increase within 6 mths. Possibly, also China's continued mkt correction…

As this stock is part of the ongoing Yield Rotation Strategy being used, I may not be buying back and may switch to the next target eg. SATS (which'll release results tomorrow). 😀

 

Posted on

UMS @ $0.905

Buy @ $0.905

Woah… KK must have gone crazy… buying at such a new high price… 😀

Let's look at the following,

 

 

Q114

Q413

Q313

Q213

Q113

UMS

34,309

34,455

25,375

32,821

27,845

Q-o-Q

-0.4%

35.8%

-22.7%

17.9%

28.7%
           

AMAT

Q2 FY2014

Q1 FY2014

Q4 FY2013

Q3 FY2013

Q2 FY2013

Orders

$2.63B

$2.29B

$2.09B

$2.00B

$2.27B

Q-o-Q

15%

9%

5%

-12%

7%
           

SSG Orders

$1.66B

$1.57B

$1.39B

$1.20B

$1.55B

Q-o-Q

6%

13%

16%

-22%

14%

Net Sales

$1.58B

$1.48B

$1.24B

$1.27B

$1.29B

Q-o-Q

7%

19%

-2%

-1%

33%

 

  • This bodes well for UMS as AMAT is their main customer and there's a strong correlation between their business
  • Reference : Maybank Report dated 20 Jan 14

 

Comments

  • AMAT guidance for Q314 (Jul) is Revenue Flat to -5% but for UMS, their Q214 (Jun) is expected to continue on a robust trajectory
    • Sounds conflicting but it should give a good indication that UMS Q214 Revenue will not be much worse than Q114
    • On the optimistic side, UMS Revenue may see an increase
  • Industry cycle is positive at the moment
    • Projected to stay positive till 2015 but have to follow closely
  • AMAT gained market share
    • Positive for UMS
    • Bigger gains in 2H14 from the merger with Tokyo Electron but this may or may not translate to bigger business for UMS

Conclusions

  • Take a bet at current prices ($0.905) but may be short term as I already have a large holding
    • PE = 10.77 (FY13) or 9.67 (latest 4Qs)
    • Yield = 7.182% (5.525% if Exclude Special Div)
  • Highly cyclical industry which can turn anytime, depending on the economy
    • Need to stay vigilant, not meant to buy and hold forever
Posted on

Genting @ $1.34

Buy @ $1.34

Hey! I ought to be taking profits.. This is supposed to be classified as my Short Term trading stock… Ok, still can't believe that it's not hitting $1.4x to $1.5x despite the good Q1 EPS I'd mentioned in my earlier posts… No worries, will hold if need to… 😀

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.29

Buy @ $1.29

Add more to my portfolio. REITs is only 13.1%, even after this buy. I may increase it further if I can find any which i think is not too risky. But, I'll continue to be wary of the dangers of REITs Mgrs being highly motivated to increase the AUM (Assets Under Management), which fattens their own bottomline and usually at the expense of unit holders ie. Leg-fast-hand-fast to divest the moment they announce anything I don't like… 😀

Someone seemed to be selling… suppressing the share price… for now. Will likely collect more… till Q3… if I can resist any urge to take profits.  From now, these buys can be short term trades.

Posted on

SB REIT @ $0.78

Sell @ $0.78

Contra off, no more. Taking advantage of my newly negotiated 0.22% commission rate (up to $100k, but minimum $25 still applies), I decided to take profit (less than $10 only…) as it's due today. I was also expecting it to easily drop back to $0.775 as the Buy Q @ $0.78 was small. But, the moment I sold, someone put in 1000 lots to the Buy Q and for the rest of the day, it was getting done at $0.785… 😀

Posted on

Kingsmen Creatives @ $0.94

Sell @ $0.94

Divested my entire stake at a slight loss (Profits will come from the Final Div = 2.5ct, which will be paid on 31st May). It didn't follow my original plan for short term trading (sell before xd) as prices was stuck at my buy price level ie. not profitable to sell. Instead, today, the 1st day of xd, it only dropped by 0.5ct vs 2.5ct div thereby creating an opportunity for me to take profit. Buyer CP 7'0' = CLSA seems to be collecting as I sold my stake over a few transactions (as ver low vol)…. 😀

Q1 results was released on 14-May after market closed. Q1 is seasonally their weakest Q. On a yoy comparison,

  • Revenue +26.8%
  • Gross Profit +12.1%
  • Net Profit -52.8%

On first look, the drop in Net Profit is a big concern. However, this is mainly due to a Provisions = $1.5Mil for a legal suit which they'd lost in China (under appeal). Although this will be a real cash item if and when they lose their appeal, on the Operations side, if we were to add back the $1.5Mil, Net Profit = +22.1%. This bodes well, from the Operations point of view and Kingsmen looks set to have a good FY14.

In addition, Cash has increased from $63.7M to $67.6M (~35ct / share).

So, why sell? Some reasons,

  • Can't resist temptation to take profit
  • Liquidity Risk is high as it's usually hard to sell due to low volume
  • Other alternatives have appeared in my radar screen, will need free cash

The next catalyst will be the Q214 Results where Div = 1.5ct for at least the past  years (didn't track longer). Any price dips (at least 1ct dip ie. 93ct – ideal would be 92ct as this is the theorectical xd price), I'll likely buy back.

 

Reference : Q114 Results

 

Posted on

SATS @ $3.17

Buy @ $3.17

Itchy fingers, add back to my portfolio after last Sell @ $3.13 on 24-Apr. Q4 Results will be out on 22-May, there should be price support as it starts to behave like a quasi-bond. Dividends vs EPS,

 

EPS

Total Div

Interim

Final

Special

Cash(Q3)

Cash(Q4)

FY14 (Mar)

??

??

5ct

??

??

$355M

??

FY13 (Mar)

16.6ct

15ct

5ct

6ct

4ct

$272M

$406M

FY12 (Mar)

15.4ct

26ct

5ct

6ct

15ct

$423M

$472M

FY11 (Mar)

17.4ct

17ct

5ct

6ct

6ct

$169M

$304M

FY10 (Mar)

16.7ct

13ct

5ct

8ct

—

$141M

$196M

 

Observations

  • Interim Div = 5ct fm FY10
  • Final Div = 6ct fm FY11 + Special Div (Variable)
    • When Cash Level is Low, Special Div Depends on EPS
    • When Cash Level is High, Special Div Depends on EPS + Excess Cash
  • Fm FY10 to FY14, the MEDIAN Quarterly Operating Profit is $45M
    • Ranges fm $31M to $58M with most within Range of $41M to $45M
    • Allows me to do a Ball-Park Estimate of the Incremental Cash fm Q3 to Q4
  • On 20-Feb, they announced completion of $118M acquisition of a stake in PT Cardig
    • If paid within Q4 (Mar), Q3 Cash drops fm $355M to $236M (lower than Q313 = $272M)
  • EPS Comparison
    • 9M : 9M13 = 12.4ct vs 9M14 = 12.3ct
    • Q3 : Q313 = 4.2ct vs Q314 = 3.8ct

 

Comments

  • Despite their calling off the $110M acquisition proposal for Singapore Cruise Centre on 12-May, the chances of a Special Div much higher than 6ct (Ball Park estimate is max 8.5ct if parent SIA is desperate for Cash) appears to be remote (assuming $118M had been paid for the Indo co acquisition)
    • Note that UOBKH analyst is expecting a bigger Special Dividend
  • My FY14 EPS is projected to be 16.1ct to 16.5ct and this may cap the Special Div to 3.5ct to 4ct (same as FY13)
  • Estimated Range of Final Div = 6ct + 3.5ct to 8.5ct

 

Conclusion

In spite of the low possibility of a higher than 6ct Special Div (plus high possibility of only 3.5ct to 4ct), I'm still taking the risk to buy as there'll likely be good price support till xd date due to the quasi-bond behaviour. But, of course, no guarantee… 😀

 

 

Sell @ $3.21

Contra off as I was starting to have some misgivings… Jump-Q at 5pm matching and got lucky as it closed at 1-2bids higher than my expectations.

After buying due to itchy fingers syndrome, I went back to read their recent SGX Annc again, 2 of which made me change my mind,

  • Shares Buy Back
    • This is one of the positives for me as it helps to provide share price support and stability, especially in times of mkt stress
    • Last Shares Buy Back was on 11-Mar ; 100,000 @ $3
      • My perception was there were more recent Buy Back @ closer to $3.20…. Oops…
    • Data was released on 22-Apr
    • Went to check Q3 Operating Data (20-Jan) vs Financials (11-Feb)
      • Can do a good projection of Operating Profit as close co-relation
      • Using this approach, Q4 Operating Profit will likely follow Q3 trend ie. weaker yoy

Due to the above reasons, I decided to contra off…. May come back again if fingers get itchy again…

 

 

 

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.285

Buy @ $1,285

My magic is working… Big seller CP = Merrill Lynch appeared, may have lots to sell as still around even during 5pm matching, with a last minute 200+ lots sell… Will continue to buy if it drops further. 😀

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.29

Buy @ $1.29

Gave up waiting for lower prices. It’s even higher than the $1.285 I paid for the earlier ones that was cd (2.0523ct)! Never mind, treat it as a switch from my FCT which I’d entirely divested (due to my fears of their impending Private Placement capped at max 10% discount for the acquisition of Changi Point). 😀

From my “colourful” screens of NAV, Gearing Yield, the key negative is the Gearing @ 37.8% as the chances of Equity Fund Raising is high. This in turn, is usually Value Destructive to existing shareholders as it may be a Private Placement at a hefty discount of up to 10% or it may be Yield Dilutive due to lower DPU. For now, I’m willing to take the risk, in anticipation of better Rental Reversions at Alexandra TechnoPark in Aug-14 (my previous estimate is a max of ~+20% to DPU). However, I’ll be prepared to react on any adverse moves by the REIT Mgr…

Colour Code

Gearing

NAV

< 30%

> 10% Discount

30% to 35%

< 10% Discount

35% to 40%

< 10% Premium

> 40%

> 10% Premium

  

  

  

  

  

  

Office / Retail REITs

REIT

Price

Yield

Gearing

NAV

K-REIT

$ 1.230

6.496%

42.4%

$ 1.370

-10.2%

FrasersComm

$ 1.290

6.442%

37.8%

$ 1.550

-16.8%

FrasersCT

$ 1.830

6.126%

27.7%

$ 1.780

2.8%

StarhillGbl Reit

$ 0.830

6.060%

29.6%

$ 0.920

-9.8%

MCT

$ 1.315

5.941%

38.7%

$ 1.160

13.4%

SPHREIT

$ 1.020

5.451%

26.9%

$ 0.900

13.3%

CapitaComm

$ 1.610

5.168%

30.0%

$ 1.660

-3.0%

CapitaMall

$ 2.020

5.158%

35.1%

$ 1.710

18.1%

SuntecReit

$ 1.790

5.050%

37.3%

$ 2.056

-12.9%
Posted on

SB REIT @ $0.775

Buy @ $0.775

Add back to my portfolio. I probably should have just kept it as a longer term hold for Dividend Yield, at least till they do any New Equity Issues. But, most likely, I needed the Free Cash urgently for some other alternatives… 😀

SB REIT remains as the Industrial REIT that ranks highest in my “colourful” screens of NAV, Gearing & Yield,

Industrial REITs

REIT

Price

Yield

Gearing

NAV

VIT

$ 0.790

8.841%

38.9%

$ 0.757

4.4%

SB REIT

$ 0.780

7.728%

29.1%

$ 0.810

-3.7%

CLT

$ 1.195

7.263%

29.1%

$ 0.980

21.9%

Sabana

$ 1.050

7.257%

37.0%

$ 1.070

-1.9%

AIMSAMP Cap Reit

$ 1.405

7.146%

31.7%

$ 1.468

-4.3%

MIT

$ 1.470

6.830%

34.4%

$ 1.200

22.5%

Cambridge

$ 0.760

6.676%

29.9%

$ 0.694

9.5%

MapletreeLog

$ 1.155

6.545%

33.3%

$ 0.970

19.1%

Ascendasreit

$ 2.360

6.017%

30.0%

$ 2.020

16.8%

  

  

  

  

  

  

Colour Code

Gearing

NAV

< 30%

> 10% Discount

30% to 35%

< 10% Discount

35% to 40%

< 10% Premium

> 40%

> 10% Premium