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Posted on

Genting @ $1.3225

Buy @ $1.325, $1.32

Was planning to Jump-Q for $1.325 but at the last minute, noticed mass withdrawal from the sell Q and decided to withdraw my trade ($1.33). Fortunately I was fast enough as matching was done at $1.33. Looks like a lot of fake Queues here! The seller CP = Goldman Sachs must have a lot to sell… I wonder why… especially after such good EPS… 😀

Have not decided whether to hold till $1.4x – $1.5x  (the strong EPS increases such a possibility) or just trade for short term (uncertainty whether EPS can sustain for next Q as it's very much dependent on the Casino segment and specifically on the High Rollers)…..

Posted on

Genting @ $1.33

Buy @ $1.33

Need to average down my $1.43 ones. Same price as my most recent sell price on 21-Apr! 😀

Q1 results were out on 5-May,

  • Best EPS (1.87ct) since Q411 (2.18ct)
    • Big jump (+29%) in Gaming Revenue (highest since Q111) due to Higher Rolling Volume and Win % in Premium Player Biz
    • Non-Gaming Revenue saw a drop qoq but 6% growth yoy (segment biz observed to be seasonal with low in Q1 and high in Q4)
  • Cash lower (-$313M) due mainly to lower Debts (-$131M) + Korea IR Investment (-$195M)
  • Jurong Hotel on schedule to open in mid-'15

Valuations using EPS,

  • PE improves from 27.6 (FY13) to 23.13 (latest 4Qs)
    • Still on the high side (>20)
    • In FY12, PE was close to 30

 

Comments

  • Earnings is very much dominated by the casino segment and especially by the High Rollers
  • Not to place too much emphasis on Korea IR
    • Target to be operational in 2017, in time for 2018 Olympics
    • Casino biz has restriction in Korea – Foreigners only
    • Lippo (20%) + Caesars (40%) have also been given approval for similar IR investment
    • Estimated Cost US$2.2Bil and likely to be a drain on their cash in the coming months
  • Mkt Reaction to ​Big jump in Q114 EPS is muted
    • ​Share price on downward trend after uninspiring Q413 results, hitting below $1.30
    • Korea IR Invesment seen as a big drag on Cash with little chance of good returns as casino is restricted to foreigners only (Genting stated one key target will be China nationals)
    • Q214 results will be critical to see if Q114 EPS is repeatable

 

An update to the tables from a previous post (Buy @ $1.31),

 

Extracts from the financials (all figure in $Mil unless otherwise stated),

  

Gaming

Non

Others

Total

Q114

$671,936

81.1%

$156,399

18.9%

$499

$828,834

FY13

$ 2,185,118

76.7%

$ 660,406

23.2%

$ 1,790

$ 2,847,314

Q413

$ 508,622

73.4%

$ 183,871

26.5%

$ 451

$ 692,944

Q313

$ 606,698

78.1%

$ 169,727

21.8%

$ 395

$ 776,820

Q213

$ 548,617

77.5%

$ 158,764

22.4%

$ 557

$ 707,938

Q113

$ 521,181

77.8%

$ 148,044

22.1%

$ 387

$ 669,612

FY12

$ 2,373,073

80.5%

$ 558,315

18.9%

$ 16,687

$ 2,948,075

Q412

$ 626,950

79.2%

$ 164,406

20.8%

$ 622

$ 791,978

Q312

$ 528,409

79.2%

$ 133,637

20.0%

$ 5,045

$ 667,091

Q212

$ 562,286

80.1%

$ 133,969

19.1%

$ 5,951

$ 702,206

Q112

$ 655,428

83.3%

$ 126,303

16.0%

$ 5,257

$ 786,988

FY11

$ 2,693,376

83.6%

$ 507,439

15.7%

$ 22,273

$ 3,223,088

Q411

$ 644,840

82.0%

$ 137,670

17.5%

$ 3,755

$ 786,265

Q311

$ 660,269

82.9%

$ 128,467

16.1%

$ 7,293

$ 796,029

Q211

$ 583,865

80.7%

$ 132,148

18.3%

$ 7,423

$ 723,436

Q111

$ 804,402

87.7%

$ 109,154

11.9%

$ 3,802

$ 917,358

FY10

$ 2,358,644

86.3%

$ 343,968

12.6%

$ 29,038

$ 2,731,650

Q410

$ 656,508

83.9%

$ 118,649

15.2%

$ 7,255

$ 782,412

 
 

Period

Q114

FY13

Q413

Q313

Q213

Q113

FY12

Q412

Q312

Q212

Q112

FY11

Revenue

$828,834

$ 2,847,314

$ 692,944

$ 776,820

$ 707,938

$ 669,612

$ 2,948,075

$ 791,978

$ 670,184

$ 702,206

$ 786,988

$ 3,223,088

GP

$356,038

$ 1,002,399

$ 210,299

$ 319,931

$ 260,260

$ 211,909

$ 1,213,490

$ 312,631

$ 276,227

$ 279,078

$ 348,835

$ 1,551,019

Op Profit

$319,81

$ 862,981

$ 201,266

$ 241,082

$ 225,127

$ 195,506

$ 927,691

$ 229,425

$ 193,572

$ 222,165

$ 282,529

$ 1,328,922

PBT

$319,086

$ 845,508

$ 190,338

$ 260,407

$ 212,971

$ 181,792

$ 864,746

$ 215,220

$ 177,781

$ 206,581

$ 265,164

$ 1,231,812

Net Profit

$257,552

$ 707,748

$ 170,047

$ 222,690

$ 169,628

$ 145,383

$ 677,684

$ 162,201

$ 138,446

$ 165,545

$ 211,492

$ 1,019,910

NPM

31.07%

24.86%

24.54%

28.67%

23.96%

21.71%

22.99%

20.48%

20.66%

23.57%

26.87%

31.64%

  

  

NCA

$7,309,474

  

$ 6,875,433

$ 6,936,404

$ 7,274,198

$ 6,989,239

  

$ 6,730,436

$ 7,125,429

$ 7,432,237

$ 6,599,803

  

L/T

$922,404

  

$ 595,695

$ 567,811

$ 780,053

$ 393,194

  

$ 346,305

$ 682,480

$ 916,662

$ 31,130

  

CA

$6,052,392

  

$ 6,198,637

$ 6,095,270

$ 5,901,752

$ 5,993,164

  

$ 6,225,156

$ 5,688,640

$ 5,775,199

$ 5,838,142

  

S/T

$1,336,942

  

$ 1,265,240

$ 934,398

$ 858,364

$ 842,940

  

$ 700,446

$ 701,189

$ 317,844

$ 10,590

  

Cash

$3,317,366

  

$ 3,630,151

$ 3,943,224

$ 3,932,855

$ 3,994,517

  

$ 4,383,555

$ 4,107,156

$ 4,540,348

$ 4,849,385

  

  

  

NCL

$1,862,754

  

$ 1,980,102

$ 2,127,150

$ 2,331,588

$ 2,442,400

  

$ 2,566,640

$ 2,697,351

$ 2,860,200

$ 2,962,564

  

Loans

$1,573,089

  

$ 1,702,367

$ 1,831,521

$ 1,960,583

$ 2,094,228

  

$ 2,224,209

$ 2,345,344

$ 2,466,650

$ 2,587,547

  

CL

$1,528,544

  

$ 1,446,776

$ 1,513,927

$ 1,688,517

$ 1,456,927

  

$ 1,451,655

$ 1,310,992

$ 1,652,606

$ 1,345,334

  

Loans

$516,366

  

$ 515,870

$ 506,632

$ 497,370

$ 493,572

  

$ 483,671

$ 474,492

$ 465,656

$ 456,389

  

  

  

EPS (ct)

1.87

4.82

1.15

1.58

1.15

0.95

4.81

1.09

0.9

1.14

1.68

8.4

NAV (ct)

62.8

  

60

58.2

56

55.7

54.3

  

53.4

52.3

66.6

50.3

Div (ct)

  

1

  

  

  

  

1

  

  

  

  

1

 
 

Reference : Q114 Results

 
 

 

Posted on

Popular Hldgs @ $0.27

Sell @ $0.27

I'm putting some in the 27ct Sell Q everyday and today, it got done. Shares Buy Back is obviously capped at 26.5ct for now and every once in a while (like yesterday), it'll go MIA (I think it's to "motivate" sellers to continue to sell @ 26.5ct). As for the 27ct buyer, this is the 3rd such buys so far (although CP is different, previous 2 were CIMB, today, UOBKH). For today, a 500 lots block was placed during 5pm matching, a bit different from the other 2, which were placed just before 5pm.

I'll continue with my sell routine and hopefully, the price will be raised soon as 26.5ct sellers seems to be drying up…

Posted on

SIAEC @ $4.8227

Buy @ $4.84, $4.82, $4.81

I was expecting at least a 5ct – 10ct  jump from yesterday's close of $4.80 due to the unexpected Special Div of 5ct. So, what I did was to do a Jump-Q to buy at $4.84 at 9am matching. However, it proceeded to drop to a low of $4.80… When it stabilised, I bought more at $4.82 and left some in Q @ $4.81, which was partially done.

It'd appear that the big seller, which had been selling since the last week of April is still around. Fortunately, there were also buyers around and it finally closed @ $4.83. I'm expecting prices to stay suppressed till the seller(s) are done with their job.  From ft.com, there're 10 funds holding 1.9Mil to  22.25Mil shares each. But, as it's less than 5%, we'll not be able to immediately find out who's the culprit… 😀

 

Posted on

UMS @ $0.815

Buy @ $0.815

1st day of xd (3.5ct) and hit my target price of 81.5ct (Yesterday's Close = 85.5ct Less 3.5ct Div => 82ct). 😀

Posted on

UMS @ $0.855

Buy @ $0.855

Last day of cd, will be collecting lots of 3.5ct div on 28-May. Based on Neratel drop today (xd today), if it follows the same pattern tomorrow, it ought to drop more than 3.5ct for a while before recovering. My target buy price is <82ct tomorrow ie. 81.5ct and below. I don't think we have many days before they release Q1 results (on the 9th last year), after which, prices may be better supported by a new Quarterly Div (1ct last year) or CEO Blackout will be over and may come out to sell cheaply…  ðŸ˜€

Posted on

Kingsmen @ $0.945

Buy @ $0.945

Add to my stake at same price. Very low vol, will keep for long term unless results turn bad. 😀

Posted on

SIAEC @ $4.80

Buy @ $4.80

Having spent so much time to add to my previous post in kinv blog (got a bit unnerved by the non-stop selling at lower prices) over the weekends, it seems a shame not to buy more… 😀

Q4 Results was announced after mkt close (earlier than last year which was on the 15th). A pleasant surprise to see a Special Div = 5ct, which is quite close to my Best Case of 6ct. Final Div = 13ct was lower than my Estimate of 14-14.5ct but the reduction was partly due to a lower Payout Rate of 83.75% (vs 89.75% last year). Cash = $536Mil was $4Mil higher than my estimate…  The forward statement is quite vague and I think I'll sell before xd, sometime in end-Jul.

Posted on

FCT @ $1.835

Sell @ $1.835

Decided to divest off my balance stake at a loss (profitable if include 2 DPUs – 1 collected, 1 pending). Will likely switch to FCOT instead unless prices pull back. 😀

Posted on

SB REIT @ $0.79

Sell @ $0.79

Q'd the whole AM while someone was collectting at this price. Sold off my entire stake as it'd reached my short term objective of +1.5ct for an Absolute Return = 1.35% (Net of All Transaction Costs). Treat it as taking the DPU (1.562ct) in advance. This is my  D-I-Y MMF (Money Market Fund) approach to park excess funds for a short term during Quarterly Reporting Seasons.

The selection criterias were highlighted in earlier posts in this blog and FB Page using the colourful comparison tables of Yield vs NAV vs Gearing…. No guarantee but can sleep better if got stuck…

Another reason for selling is, I also forsee I may need more free cash to buy more UMS at lower prices in the coming days and weeks…. before their next results or in the worst case, EGM for the proposed 1-for-4 Bonus Issue ðŸ˜€