Buy @ $0.855
Jump-Q before mkt opened. Getting cheaper as we approach xd on 6-May. Last 2 trading days of cd. My Crystal Ball better be right on the Semiconductor Fab Equipment positive cycle staying positive till Q3 or even longer…:D
Popular Hldgs @ $0.27
Sell @ $0.27
We're seeing the same buying pattern as yesterday. Shares Buy Back is likely capped at $0.265 for now as they patiently topped up the Buy Q ($0.265) to maintain it at 100-200+ lots. The 27ct Buy Up (of large Sell Q) happened earlier today and all mine in Q was done (include M-in-Law's).
SGX Annc after mkt close,
- 848,000 @ 26.5ct ; 30.6% of Total Vol
- Total Vol = 2,773,000 ; Range = 26.5ct to 27.5ct
So, who's the buyer for 1,910,000 @ $0.27 since Shares Buy Back is capped at $0.265 today?? Yesterday, it was 1,560,000 @ $0.27. The buying pattern is very similar…. One possibility is Mr Chou and if so, his SGX Annc will have to come soon. If it's not him, then who?? Mr Chou is already holding 60%+, so, no way for a 3rd party to try to do a takeover. Traders? I don't mind if they can drive the price up further for me to sell..
If this pattern continues on Friday, we'll try to profit from it… 😀
UMS @ $0.867
SIAEC @ $4.8033
Buy @ $4.82, $4.80, $4.79
Kept dropping… Kept buying to average down.. 2H results will be out in May (14-May last year with Div = 15ct).
Time to do more studies….
First, the financials,
|
Period |
Q3 |
Q2 |
Q1 |
FY13 |
Q4 |
Q3 |
Q2 |
Q1 |
FY12 |
FY11 |
|
Revenue |
284 |
294 |
289 |
1,147 |
284 |
278 |
285 |
301 |
1,170 |
1,107 |
|
Op Profit |
25 |
29 |
28 |
128 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
130 |
136 |
|
PBT |
70 |
81 |
79 |
306 |
76 |
76 |
76 |
79 |
303 |
296 |
|
Net Profit |
62 |
72 |
70 |
274 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
71 |
272 |
261 |
|
NPM |
21.74% |
24.57% |
24.33% |
23.91% |
23.81% |
24.34% |
23.90% |
23.63% |
23.25% |
23.60% |
|
Cash |
462 |
466 |
629 |
523 |
523 |
430 |
432 |
575 |
498 |
581 |
|
EPS |
5.43 |
6.39 |
6.22 |
24.51 |
5.96 |
6.08 |
6.09 |
6.38 |
24.56 |
23.77 |
|
NAV |
$ 1.159 |
$ 1.169 |
$ 1.253 |
$ 1.177 |
$ 1.177 |
$ 1.106 |
$ 1.114 |
$ 1.213 |
$ 1.143 |
$ 1.194 |
|
Div |
– |
7 |
– |
22 |
15 |
– |
7 |
– |
21 |
30 |
NOTE : FY is end-Mar
Comments
-
Q3 EPS dropped due mainly to higher Staff Costs, Subcontract Material Costs
- Unless Q4 shows y-o-y growth, FY14 EPS is set to be lower than FY13 (my estimate 0.5ct to 1ct lower in worst case)
- If so, div may be reduced to 14 – 14.5ct (from 15ct) unless Payout Rate is increased
-
Cash = 41.46ct / share or 39.86ct (Less Debts of $18m)
- Negligible Debts
-
Yield = 4.583% ; PE = 19.58 (20 using latest 4Qs)
- Yield not great ; PE on the high side for a non-growth stock
Next, the Dividends,
|
Ex-Date |
Record Date |
Date Paid/Payable |
Particulars |
|
18 Nov 2013 |
20 Nov 2013 |
28 Nov 2013 |
SGD 0.07 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
23 Jul 2013 |
25 Jul 2013 |
07 Aug 2013 |
SGD 0.15 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
05 Nov 2012 |
07 Nov 2012 |
21 Nov 2012 |
SGD 0.07 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
23 Jul 2012 |
25 Jul 2012 |
10 Aug 2012 |
SGD 0.15 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
11 Nov 2011 |
15 Nov 2011 |
29 Nov 2011 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
26 Jul 2011 |
28 Jul 2011 |
11 Aug 2011 |
SGD 0.14 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
26 Jul 2011 |
28 Jul 2011 |
11 Aug 2011 |
SGD 0.1 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
16 Nov 2010 |
19 Nov 2010 |
01 Dec 2010 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
27 Jul 2010 |
29 Jul 2010 |
11 Aug 2010 |
SGD 0.13 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
13 Nov 2009 |
17 Nov 2009 |
30 Nov 2009 |
SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
29 Jul 2009 |
31 Jul 2009 |
13 Aug 2009 |
SGD 0.11 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2008 |
18 Nov 2008 |
28 Nov 2008 |
SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
22 Jul 2008 |
24 Jul 2008 |
05 Aug 2008 |
SGD 0.16 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2007 |
16 Nov 2007 |
28 Nov 2007 |
SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
24 Jul 2007 |
26 Jul 2007 |
07 Aug 2007 |
SGD 0.08 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
09 Nov 2006 |
13 Nov 2006 |
22 Nov 2006 |
SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
25 Jul 2006 |
27 Jul 2006 |
08 Aug 2006 |
SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
25 Jul 2006 |
27 Jul 2006 |
08 Aug 2006 |
SGD 0.2 ONE-TIER TAX |
|
14 Nov 2005 |
16 Nov 2005 |
25 Nov 2005 |
SGD 0.04 TAX EXEMPT |
|
27 Jul 2005 |
29 Jul 2005 |
10 Aug 2005 |
SGD 0.045 TAX EXEMPT |
|
10 Nov 2004 |
16 Nov 2004 |
26 Nov 2004 |
SGD 0.03 TAX EXEMPT |
|
28 Jul 2004 |
30 Jul 2004 |
11 Aug 2004 |
SGD 0.025 TAX EXEMPT |
|
28 Jul 2004 |
30 Jul 2004 |
11 Aug 2004 |
SGD 0.2 TAX EXEMPT |
|
11 Nov 2003 |
13 Nov 2003 |
28 Nov 2003 |
SGD 0.02 TAX EXEMPT |
|
16 Jul 2003 |
18 Jul 2003 |
31 Jul 2003 |
SGD 0.012 LESS TAX |
|
16 Jul 2003 |
18 Jul 2003 |
31 Jul 2003 |
SGD 0.013 TAX EXEMPT |
|
11 Nov 2002 |
13 Nov 2002 |
27 Nov 2002 |
SGD 0.02 LESS TAX |
|
10 Jul 2002 |
12 Jul 2002 |
26 Jul 2002 |
SGD 0.012 LESS TAX |
|
10 Jul 2002 |
12 Jul 2002 |
26 Jul 2002 |
SGD 0.018 TAX EXEMPT |
|
09 Nov 2001 |
13 Nov 2001 |
28 Nov 2001 |
SGD 0.015 LESS TAX |
|
12 Jul 2001 |
16 Jul 2001 |
27 Jul 2001 |
SGD 0.025 LESS TAX |
|
13 Nov 2000 |
15 Nov 2000 |
27 Nov 2000 |
15% LESS TAX |
Source : SGX
Background colour of above table,
- Pink – 1H Div
- Blue – 2H Div
- Yellow – 2H with Special Div
Cash Comparison for Q3 & Q4,
|
CASH |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Change |
|
FY14 |
$462m |
?? |
?? |
|
FY13 |
$430m |
$523m |
+$93m |
|
FY12 |
$388m |
$498m |
+$110m |
|
FY11 |
$459m |
$581m |
+$122m |
Note : Outstanding Shares = 1,114,571,358
Comments
- Q314 Cash is at a very similar level to Q311 when they last paid a Special Div = 10ct
- But, the Cash Increase from Q3 to Q4 had been tapering, from +122m in FY11 to +93m in FY13
Assuming Q314 to Q414 Cash Increase continues to taper , eg. Ball Park estimate to +$70m (Cash generated from Operations = $51.4m in Q3),
=> Estimated Q4 Cash = $462m + $70m = $532m
Further, assume SIAEC requires $320m Working Cash (estimated from FY11 Q4 = $581m less 24ct Div or $262m),
=> Cash Available for 2H Div = $532m – $320m = $232m or 20.8ct
=> Best Case 2H Dividend Scenario = 14ct (Final) + 6ct (Special)
Note : I have reduced the Estimated Final Div from 15ct to 14ct as FY14 EPS looks set to be lower than FY13.
Conclusion
- A Special Div is not impossible, but, it'll be lower than the 10ct of 2H11
- SIA is the majority shareholder with 78% and will likely be motivated to "milk" this "cow"
- The unknown is whether they have other plans for the excess cash eg. to expand into other airports with new JVs
In the worst case, Yield = 4.5% is the compensation for a longer term hold… Further, the Quasi Bond-like behavior of Dividend Yield Stocks will likely kick in soon ie. the expected 15ct Final Dividend will help to provide some cushion for any bigger drops … till xd. IMO, current sell down is either due to switching by Funds or someone with insider info of bad results…
Reference
Vard @ $0.97
FCT @ $1.795
Popular Hldgs @ $0.27
Sell @ $0.27
Huge volume today, almost all at $0.265 till just 3mins before 5pm where all the 27ct ones in Sell Q was bought up…
It looked like Shares Buy Back at 26.5ct for almost the whole day as the Modus Operandi looked like previous times. As the Max Buy Back Price today is 27.51ct, we were not very surprised to see the huge 27ct sell Q being cleared at the last few minutes. I fact, we'd already queued at 27ct, despite a 1000+ lots Queue…
But, what puzzled us was the Buyer CP was CIMB, not the usual one from Phillip…. Hmmm…
SGX Annc cleared some doubts but opened new ones… Shares Buy Back,
- Total = 3,627,000 @ 26.496ct ; 66.4% of total vol
- If we use the Vol = 26,000 @ 26ct (fm above UOBKH Trade Summary scrreshot)+ Bal Buy Back Vol = 3,600,000 @ $26.5ct, we get Avg Buy Back Price = 26.4963ct.
- Vol = 5,459,000 ; Range 26-27ct
Holy cow! Looking at the Avg Shares Buy Back Price = 26.496ct vs the Computed Price = 26.4963ct, it is obvious the 27ct Buys were not done by the Shares Buy Back! Further, whoever it was is also buying in huge Qty of >1000 lots! (Total @ 27ct = 1,560,000)
Things just got a lot more interesting and of course, we hope this continues… 😀
But, if Shares Buy Back is capped at 26.5ct and the new Buyer(s) goes MIA, then, likely stalemate… Max Avg Share Buy Back Price for tomorrow is 27.72ct but not much meaning if it's capped (for now) at 26.5ct…
Starhub @ $4.14
UMS @ $0.87
Buy @ $0.87
My highest buy price… AGM today, afraid they may leak out good news, grab more first… 😀
I did a compilation of the semi.org Billings figures on a quarterly basis and computed the q-o-q change to compare with UMS Revenue & EPS figures,
|
WW Billings |
UMS Revenue |
UMS EPS |
|
|
Q114 |
+5.63% |
?? |
?? |
|
Q413 |
+6.89% |
+35.78% |
3.19ct |
|
Q313 |
-6.15% |
-22.69% |
1.40ct |
|
Q213 |
+20.10% |
+17.8% |
2.28ct |
|
Q113 |
+1.10% |
+28.73% |
1.53ct |
|
Q412 |
-26.33% |
-5.76% |
0.35ct |
|
Q312 |
-13.12% |
-37.35% |
0.62ct |
|
Q212 |
+17.75% |
+14.52% |
2.22ct |
|
Q112 |
+3.09% |
+27.17% |
1.65ct |
The Industry wide figures ought to provide us with a good picture on the state of the Industry cycle…. which is still +ve… The big jump in UMS Revenue & EPS in Q413 (when compared against WW Billings %) could be due to a timing lag as we see UMS figures for Q313 (1 Q earlier) was a much bigger drop vs WW Billing % Change. For other Qs, similar possible timing leads or lags may also be present…
There's a very high chance UMS will report a Q114 with higher Revenue. EPS will be a different matter as for Q413, there was a big jump and one of the contributing factors was lower Depreciation Expenses. A ball park estimate using Q413 & Q313 average and applying a +5% gives EPS = 2.41ct -> My Crystal Ball figure… I hope to see a higher EPS, at least > 2.5ct … The dream EPS would be at least 3ct or even higher than Q413 3.14ct…
Critical Dates
- 6-May (Tue) : xd for 3.5ct
- 9-May (Fri) : Q114 Results?