Posts

Posted on

CRCT @ $1.455

Buy @ $1.455

A new addition to my current portfolio.

The Quarterly results were out before mkt open. DPU improved quite a fair bit from 2.07ct to 2.4ct q-o-q (likely due to earlier acquisitions). But, share price had also gone up steadily from $1.295 since 28-Jan. Tough call… not sure if the DPU improvement was expected and had been factored in. When mkt opened, there was zero vol… Fingers itchy and went to Q… got done after a while.. 😀

Sell @ $1.475

It started coming alive in the late AM… Decided to contra off as I was already feeling regretful to have bought… My magic worked and it went all the way to $1.52 after I sold..

Post Mortem

The above proves a point… again.. We, small retail investors do have an edge over the big Fund Mgrs as we can be more nimble… There was at least a couple of hours after mkt opened before the bigger players could react. I just need to have better confidence in my analysis and do bigger buys for such opportunities… plus hold for higher profits… 😀

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.285

Buy @ $1.285

Quite surprised to see the price back to my yesterday's buy price. A big seller was around and for a while, I was beginning to think I was too optimistic on my analysis. Fortunately, the selling was well absorbed and soon, the seller must have finished his job and prices started going up.

My current intention is to hold for longer term, at leastt till Aug to see through the new Master Lease agreement for Alexandra Techno Park. It could potentially add 20% max (since it's 20%+ of asset and current rental is half of mkt rate) to DPU in Q4… 😀

Posted on

FCOT @ $1.285

Buy @ $1.285

A new addition to my portfolio… I must have sold off my last lots a lot time ago at a much lower price..Treat it as a switch from A-HTrust.. ie REIT for REIT, A$ Exposure for A$ Exposure… but, Yield ~1% – 1.5% lower…

Embolden by my last minute buy of FCT yesterday on prediction of a better DPU and share price rising accordingly by a couple of cents, I decided to do the same thing for FCOT. Some quick studies were done and my conclusion was a high certainty of higher DPU vs last Q.

Aft mkt close, SGX Annc… Only slight increase to DPU (below my expectation) but, on an annualised basis (Feb only has 28 days), it was within my expectations..

Period

DPU

Annualised DPU

Gearing

A$-S$ Q-on-Q

Remarks

Q2 – Mar14

2.0524ct

8.31ct

37.8%

+3.62%

A$ Recovery, Expected DPU Recovery to Q4 – Sep13 level

Q1 – Dec13

2.0483ct

8.13ct

37.9%

-3.78%

Lower DPU Due Mainly to Weaker A$

Q4 – Sep13

2.0766ct

8.25ct

37.7%

+0.96%

Lower DPU Due to Divestment of KeyPoint + Japan Assets, Partially Offset by Acquisition of Another 50% of Caroline Centre

Q3 – Jun13

2.1851ct

8.78ct

39.5%

-10.34%

—

Q2 – Mar13

1.9883ct

8.09ct

31.7%

+1.84%

—

NOTE : Aussie Assets = ~50%

The longer term potential upside will be in Aug-14 when the Master Lease of Alexandra Techno Park (26% of Asset) is Due for Renewal. Current = $1.8 psf vs mkt $3.6 psf

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.715

Sell @ $0.715

After yesterday's bad experience of my sell order being partially done, I put in my Sell Q early in the AM.

No more left… This is my 2nd time to divest after they did a Private Placement… This time round, the discount given to Placees wasn't too huge (Value Destruction suffered by existing shareholders is proportional to discounts given in Private Placements) but in their SGX Annc, their computation of the Advanced DPU included an additional expense item due to unwinding of CCS (Cross Currency Swaps). This have the impact of reducing Yield by ~1% and it was also stated that there are more CCS to unwind in the coming months.

Although the Yield will still be quite ok at 7.5% to 7.8% (my own estimates), I have decided to fully divest till figures are available in the coming months to provide me with better certainties.. Will likely take another couple of Qs at least..

Note : What I'm practising is… If it keeps me awake ie uncertainties, just move on.. ie. divest… There're lots of other stocks out there to switch over to.. 😀

Posted on

SATS @ $3.13

Sell @ $3.13

Take profit during the pre-results announcement phase of the Yields Rotation Strategy. On a day when STI is -19.52 @ 3258.01, SATS is surprisingly strong… +3ct @ $3.13 plus good Vol = 1,169,000 ; Range $3.10 to $3.14… 😀

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.715

Sell @ $0.715

Q'd whole day and only 1 lot done at 5pm. 10 more lots were done during 5pm matching despite someone doing a Jump-Q to sell 10 lots. Will have to pay min. comms of $25… 😀

This is being sold at a loss but will have profits if I were to include the Advanced DPU. My plan is to divest my entire stake as I don't quite like the extra expenses due to their unwinding of the Currency Swaps, as mentioned in a recent announcement for the Advanced DPU (due to Private Placement to fund acquisition of a Japan asset).

Posted on

FCT @ $1.80

Buy @ $1.80

Buy back at a higher price than what I'd previously sold recently. Results will be out today and last year, DPU = 2.7ct. Am betting that it'll go up by 1.5ct to 2.5ct during cd.

Someone seems to have lots to sell but putting few lots to the sell Q each time to maintain it at <20. May be Schroder as they'd been reducing the stake recently. Perhaps, they'll be getting some from Private Placement (assuming FCT using this method to raise funds for their Changi Point acquisition) and is selling now as an arbitrage…

After mkt closed, SGX Annc of Q2 results => DPU = 2.88ct… 😀

However on closer examination, the DPU increase y-o-y wasn't that much,

  • Q2 (Mar-13) : DPU = 2.7ct (Cash = 0.15ct Retained) => Total would have been 2.7ct + 0.15ct = 2.85ct
  • Q2 (Mar-14) : DPU = 2.88ct (100% Payout)

=> Only 0.03ct higher

Posted on

Kingsmen @ $0.945

Buy @ $0.945

Add more since there're sellers around (even selling at $0.94). Usually very illiquid so take note of the risk ie. Liquidity Risk (May not be able to sell in a hurry if Cash is urgently required). Will try out as a Yield Rotation Play before xd but can hold for longer term if stuck… 😀

Posted on

UMS @ $0.845

Buy @ $0.845

Jump Q to grab some when mkt open but was still able to buy more at the same price after mkt opened.

BB (Billing-Booking) data for Semicon Eqpt was released by semi-org at 6am. It's just above my expectation (0.95 – 1.05) @ 1.06. But, both 'B's are actually lower than last month, with Billing drop steeper than Booking, thus the higher BB. Still, the drops are not substantial and more importantly, it's much higher y-o-y.

It's now my No.1 stock after my recent buying plus my selling down of my Neratel holdings… 😀

Reference :  http://semi.org/en/node/49576?id=highlights

Posted on

UMS @ $0.8532

Buy @ $0.86, $0.855, $0.85, $0.845

Ok, I went crazy and bought at even higher prices… even went to Jump-Q before mkt open to grab some at $0.86. Reading thro' some articles of Semicon Fab Eqpt FORECAST for 2014 of +20-30% made me reckless… Coupled with PE = 10+ and Yield just <6% (if no Special Div) gave me a false (?) sense of safety…

Some articles also mentioned that Fab construction leads Fab Eqpt orders and well… since many Fabs already started construction in 2013 (based on semicon demand forecast, CAPEX already committed), I don't suppose they'll be left empty unless there's a severe downturn or mistake in the semicon demand forecast???

This batch of Buys can also be short term…

Good Luck to me… 😀

PS. Andy Luong (CEO) is unlikely to be behind the sell down today as it's likely the Blackout period now (Last year, Q1 results on 9-May). Semicon.org will release Mar-14 BB tomorrow 6am… perhaps profit taking due to fears of drop in BB to below 1?? My prediction is +/- 0.05 ie. 0.95 to 1.05, with a higher chance of a positive bias… I hope!

References :

  • Gartner : Says Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending to Increase 12.2 Percent in 2014 by 4-traders dated Apr-14
  • UMS AR2103