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Posted on

SIAEC @ $4.91

Sell @ $4.91

Take profit, no more left. 😀

This is part of the action plan for Part II of David's Yield Rotation Strategy. This would be the Pre-Results phase, where we'd expect a tug-of-war between FEARS (Uncertainty on Profitability due to rising Costs may lead to a reduction in Div) & GREED (EPS MAY not be as bad and POSSIBILITY of Special Div). On top of that, the Quasi-Bond characteristics will temper the intra day swings as we approaches mid-May (Results Annc).

Posted on

UMS @ $0.8167

Buy @ $0.82, $0.81

Finally decided to do something silly… buy at a much higher price… Managed to con-vince myself using Valuations as follows,

Target Yield = 6%

  • Assume min 5ct Div 
    • Fm FY12, Div = 1ct/Q + 2ct in Q4 ie Total 5ct
    • If 1-for-4 Bonus is approved, 1 share becomes 1.25 share
      • Assume Div maintained (worst case) at 1ct/Q (no more 2ct in Q4) => 4*1.25ct = 5ct ie.  min 5ct div is mainatined (for existing shareholders)
    • => Assumption of 5ct Div for FY14 is possible in worst case after bonus issue (for existing shareholders)  by reducing Div / Share ie reduce Q4 div fm 2ct to 1ct
  • EPS from FY11 to FY13 (except Q413) = 0.35ct to 2.28ct
    • Q413 EPS = 3.19ct
    • Forward statement is positive for 1H14
      • => 1H14 EPS easily 4-6ct ie 2-3ct / Q
    • => Assumption of 5ct Div for FY14 is highly possible, even if 2H14 EPS drops to <1ct / Q
  • => Target Price = 5ct (FY14 Div) / 6% (Target Yield) = $0.833

Comments

  • Q114 results will be important as it'll give an indication if it is anywhere near Q413 = 3.19ct
    • If so, then there could also be a very good possibility of an increase in Div Payout (could also be deferred till Q414 to cushion for any EPS drops in 2H14)
  • Critical dates
    • Next SEMI Book-to-Bill: April 21, 2014 at 3:00pm Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)
    • AMAT Quarterly Results (23-May last year)
    • UMS Quarterly Results (9-May last year)

What looked good were,

  • P&L
    • Q4 EPS 3.19ct (much higher)
  • BS
    • Cash = 8.5ct / share ; Zero Debts
  • Biz Upcycle (at least till 1H14)..
    • BB maintained at 1 or >1 since Oct-13 ; also Jan-13 to Jul-13
    • Aug-13 = 0.98 ; Sep-13 = 0.97
  • PE = 9.7 ; Yield = 7.975% (6.135% if Spcial Div excluded)

Take a bet… and my magic worked… prices started coming under pressure… 😀

 

References

Posted on

SB REIT @ $0.775

Buy @ $0.775

Add more to my collection, either as a short term trade for the coming Quarterly results or for longer term Dividend Yield, as long as Gearing & NAV are also within my target range (refer to previous post which uses colour codes). 😀

Posted on

Genting @ $1.31

Buy @ $1.31

Main purpose is to average down my single other buy @ $1.43… 😀

Using latest FY13 figures,

  • PE = 27.18
  • Yield = 0.763%
    • Definitely not a Yield Stock but neither is it a Growth Stock at this point in time
  • Cash = $3.6Bil (mostly raised from Perpetual Securities previously)
    • Cash / Share = $0.297
  • Debts = $2.2Bil
    • Net Cash / Share = $0.115

A recent development announced on –Feb, is their proposed joint development of a US$2.2Bil IR with a Chinese co (Landing International Devt – HK Listco) in Jeju (S Korea). In mid-Mar, Lippo + Caesars also announced an IR project (near Incheon Airport, outside Seoul). In S Korea, all casinos (except for 1) are restricted to foreigners only. The market is not reacting very positively to this news as,

  • Lots of cash is going to be utilized over the next few years with zero returns
  • The main money spinner for an IR is the casino. But, one which is restricted to foreigners is not expected to be very profitable

Extracts from the financials (all figure in $Mil unless otherwise stated),

 

Gaming

Non

Others

Total

FY13

$ 2,185,118

76.7%

$ 660,406

23.2%

$ 1,790

$ 2,847,314

Q413

$ 508,622

73.4%

$ 183,871

26.5%

$ 451

$ 692,944

Q313

$ 606,698

78.1%

$ 169,727

21.8%

$ 395

$ 776,820

Q213

$ 548,617

77.5%

$ 158,764

22.4%

$ 557

$ 707,938

Q113

$ 521,181

77.8%

$ 148,044

22.1%

$ 387

$ 669,612

FY12

$ 2,373,073

80.5%

$ 558,315

18.9%

$ 16,687

$ 2,948,075

Q412

$ 626,950

79.2%

$ 164,406

20.8%

$ 622

$ 791,978

Q312

$ 528,409

79.2%

$ 133,637

20.0%

$ 5,045

$ 667,091

Q212

$ 562,286

80.1%

$ 133,969

19.1%

$ 5,951

$ 702,206

Q112

$ 655,428

83.3%

$ 126,303

16.0%

$ 5,257

$ 786,988

FY11

$ 2,693,376

83.6%

$ 507,439

15.7%

$ 22,273

$ 3,223,088

Q411

$ 644,840

82.0%

$ 137,670

17.5%

$ 3,755

$ 786,265

Q311

$ 660,269

82.9%

$ 128,467

16.1%

$ 7,293

$ 796,029

Q211

$ 583,865

80.7%

$ 132,148

18.3%

$ 7,423

$ 723,436

Q111

$ 804,402

87.7%

$ 109,154

11.9%

$ 3,802

$ 917,358

FY10

$ 2,358,644

86.3%

$ 343,968

12.6%

$ 29,038

$ 2,731,650

Q410

$ 656,508

83.9%

$ 118,649

15.2%

$ 7,255

$ 782,412

 

Period

FY13

Q413

Q313

Q213

Q113

FY12

Q412

Q312

Q212

Q112

FY11

Revenue

$ 2,847,314

$ 692,944

$ 776,820

$ 707,938

$ 669,612

$ 2,948,075

$ 791,978

$ 670,184

$ 702,206

$ 786,988

$ 3,223,088

GP

$ 1,002,399

$ 210,299

$ 319,931

$ 260,260

$ 211,909

$ 1,213,490

$ 312,631

$ 276,227

$ 279,078

$ 348,835

$ 1,551,019

Op Profit

$ 862,981

$ 201,266

$ 241,082

$ 225,127

$ 195,506

$ 927,691

$ 229,425

$ 193,572

$ 222,165

$ 282,529

$ 1,328,922

PBT

$ 845,508

$ 190,338

$ 260,407

$ 212,971

$ 181,792

$ 864,746

$ 215,220

$ 177,781

$ 206,581

$ 265,164

$ 1,231,812

Net Profit

$ 707,748

$ 170,047

$ 222,690

$ 169,628

$ 145,383

$ 677,684

$ 162,201

$ 138,446

$ 165,545

$ 211,492

$ 1,019,910

NPM

24.86%

24.54%

28.67%

23.96%

21.71%

22.99%

20.48%

20.66%

23.57%

26.87%

31.64%
 

NCA

  

$ 6,875,433

$ 6,936,404

$ 7,274,198

$ 6,989,239

  

$ 6,730,436

$ 7,125,429

$ 7,432,237

$ 6,599,803

  

L/T

  

$ 595,695

$ 567,811

$ 780,053

$ 393,194

  

$ 346,305

$ 682,480

$ 916,662

$ 31,130

  

CA

  

$ 6,198,637

$ 6,095,270

$ 5,901,752

$ 5,993,164

  

$ 6,225,156

$ 5,688,640

$ 5,775,199

$ 5,838,142

  

S/T

  

$ 1,265,240

$ 934,398

$ 858,364

$ 842,940

  

$ 700,446

$ 701,189

$ 317,844

$ 10,590

  

Cash

  

$ 3,630,151

$ 3,943,224

$ 3,932,855

$ 3,994,517

  

$ 4,383,555

$ 4,107,156

$ 4,540,348

$ 4,849,385

  
 

NCL

  

$ 1,980,102

$ 2,127,150

$ 2,331,588

$ 2,442,400

  

$ 2,566,640

$ 2,697,351

$ 2,860,200

$ 2,962,564

  

Loans

  

$ 1,702,367

$ 1,831,521

$ 1,960,583

$ 2,094,228

  

$ 2,224,209

$ 2,345,344

$ 2,466,650

$ 2,587,547

  

CL

  

$ 1,446,776

$ 1,513,927

$ 1,688,517

$ 1,456,927

  

$ 1,451,655

$ 1,310,992

$ 1,652,606

$ 1,345,334

  

Loans

  

$ 515,870

$ 506,632

$ 497,370

$ 493,572

  

$ 483,671

$ 474,492

$ 465,656

$ 456,389

  
 

EPS (ct)

4.82

1.15

1.58

1.15

0.95

4.81

1.09

0.9

1.14

1.68

8.4

NAV (ct)

  

60

58.2

56

55.7

54.3

  

53.4

52.3

66.6

50.3

Div (ct)

1

        

1

        

1

Comments

  • After the initial novelty, Gaming Revenue had been declining. Non-Gaming Revenue is growing steadily, but is unable to cover for the drops
  • There’s a close relation in their results with that of MBS (Marina Bay Sands), which usually releases their results earlier. So, need to diligently track that…
  • Korea IR investment is expected to be a drag on their results… till it’s progressively opened from 2017
  • Non-gaming revenue will get a boost when their Jurong Hotel opens in mid-2015

References

Posted on

STEng @ $3.87

Sell @ $3.87

My last lots… only made some kopi-$$. After selling, I read a DBSV report dated 1-Apr, which was very positive on STEng, with a target price of $4++…. Thank You DBSV!

This will be considered the end of this round of theYield Rotation Strategy for me. Some statistics,

  • Transactions
    • First Buy = 3 Jan 14
      • No. of Buy Days = 13
      • Buy Range : $3.72 to $3.88
    • Last Sell = 2 Apr 14
      • No. of Sell Days = 6
      • Sell Range : $3.76 to $3.90
    • Profit / Loss Range (based on Buy Days) = -$157.69 to $309.61
      • No actual losses based on Sell Days ie. losses are adequately offset by profits
    • Time Frame = 3 mths ie. 1Q
  • Total Turnover (Buy + Sell) = $511,253.58
    • Total Buy Value = $255,238.47
    • Total Sell Value = $256,015.11
      • => Net Profit = $776.64
      • Net Profit /  Average Buy Value per Buy Day = 3.96%

Going forward, my target price as calculated in a previous post,

  • Conditions : 4% Yield @ 75% Payout (FY14)
  • Target Price
    • After xd : $3.51 or $3.68 (assume 5% Growth in EPS)
    • During cd (+12ct) : $3.63 or $3.80 (assume 5% Growth in EPS)
      • Will have to monitor the Quarterly Results for EPS Growth

So…. barring any Itchy Fingers Syndrome, I won't be buying back unless it hits below $3.80… The best for me would be to move on to my next targets (end-Mar FY stocks) of the Yield Rotation Strategy…

 

Comments

  • Yield Rotation Strategy worked out well for this time
    • But, have to be prepared to hold for long term if things do not work out well ie. target stocks have to be fundamentally strong and entry prices not at high valuations
  • The absolute returns is insufficient to maintain daily expenses unless,
    • Committed $$ is enlarged substantially. Note that altho' the Average Per Buy Day is ~$20k, the highest committed amount may be >3x ie. when prices drop, more buys were done to average down
  • Other strategies were also utilised eg.
    • Step Down Averaging – When prices are falling. Can be intra-day
    • Step Up Avergaing – When prices are rising, to sell in steps
    • Profit & Loss Offsets – Loss making buys are sold together with profitable ones

In conclusion, I had a lot of fun… but I didn't make a lot of $$… But, I'm glad I didn't lose $$ or get stuck into a long term hold….The sudden cut in Dividend Payout Rate changed the whole landscape for me and contributed to my urgency to get rid of my holdings. To play safe, I'd rather wait to see the "EPS Growth" in their future Quarterly reports before I raise my target Buy price….

Note : Perhaps a better strategy would be to buy near the lows (that'd require applying a bigger margin of safety before doing any buys) and selling near the highs (must not have my kind of "kan-cheong spider" temperament)….:D

 

Posted on

Portfolio Q114

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S’pore stocks for Q114 close (A new format),

% Holding

Stocks

Total

> 5%

NeraTel

72.0%

Popular

FrasersCT

UMS

< 5%

Saizen REIT

16.8%

AscendasHT

ForterraTr

SoilbuildBizREIT

ST Engg

SBSTransit 500

SIA Engg

Genting SP

Cash

  

11.2%

Note : Stocks are arranged in descending order of % holdings

 
 

Summary

The STI closed at 3188.62, +0.669% from end 2013. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2013),

  • Size (Stocks Only) : -11.01% (Cost) / +0.89% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance (Includes Cash) vs End-2013 Mkt Value : +11.92% (Unrealised) + (-5.75%) (Realised Losses) + 0.39% (Div) = +6.56%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised P&L : -6.3% (Stocks Bought before 2014) + 0.55% (Stocks Bought in 2014)

So, +6.56% vs +0.669% (STI), better than STI. The figures are a bit misleading as the Portfolio Performance was still hovering at just below +2% a week ago but started to go up due mainly to the big price jump by UMS and to a smaller extent, Neratel. It may fall back down to earth in Q2… hopefully not…

For Q114, I was busy realising huge losses… Vard (which subsequently rallied by >10% as Brazil yard problems seemed to be contained), LMIR (Indonesia economy looks shaky with Rupiah under stress) and even my old fav, Popular Hldgs (Operating Profit continues to weaken altho’ Cash is strong)… The realisation I had was that if there’re better alternatives around, with a good enough degree of certainty, I ought to just “bite the bullet” and move on. As long as the alternative stock performs better, we’ll see a rise in Total Asset Value…. and this is after all the most important reason for investing… Realising losses can and is very painful.. psychologically… but, this is one key area I’ll have to continue to develop myself..

As expected, new fears had surfaced in Q114 (after QE3 Tapering had been mapped out by the US FED). Russia annexation of Crimea created fears of a bigger conflict in Eastern Europe starting with Ukraine and leading to perhaps other ex-USSR states. For a while, a more hawkish Yellen speech which indicated Interest Rate is likely to rise earlier than previously expected, created fears (may not have gone away yet but it shows the impact of the FED’s actions or even just talk). At this point in time (end-Q1), fears seemed to have subsided but what’s for sure, something will crop up in Q214.

For Q214, my game plan continues for Dividend Plays but at a smaller scale as fewer companies have March as their year end. However, many stocks which had declared their FY13 (Dec) Div will be going xd in Q2 and I’ll be selling down the less promising ones before it goes xd.

 
 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q413)

  • New Additions : A-HTrust, SB REIT, STEng, SIAEC, Genting
  • Increases : NeraTel, UMS
  • Decreases : Popular
  • No Change : FCT, Saizen, , Forterra, SBSTransit
  • No More : HLFin, LMIR, Vard

 
 

Exchange Rates

  • USD (US $)


  • AUD (Australia $)


  • JPY (Japanese Yen)


  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah)


Looks like good news for Q1 DPU as,

  • IDR (Indonesia Rupiah) +7.1% : LMIR
  • AUD (Australia $) +3.6% : A-HTrust
  • JPY (Japanese Yen) +1.6% : Saizen (No DPU Payout as Semi-Annual in Jun)

  

Posted on

Popular Hldgs @ $0.225

Sell @ $0.225

Cleared all my loss making ones thro' creative accounting… Average cost now $0.187… Will likely continue to pare down my stake as and when opportunity arises.. can be due to other alternatives… 😀

Posted on

SIAEC @ $4.82

Buy @ $4.82

Add back to my portfolio. Fingers itchy… initiate next part of David's Yield Rotation Strategy. Actually, not very attractive as,

  • PE = 19.67 (FY13 – Mar) or 20.08 (latest 4Qs)
  • Yield = 4.564%

There's also a risk of lower Div Payout as 9M EPS was lower compared to last year.

The only bright spark (my guess only) is the possibility for a higher Special Div component is more than 50% as the Cash level is high ($462Mil vs $459Mil in Dec-10, where they subsequently declared a 2H Div = 24ct in 2H Mar-11). Note however that there was a higher $122Mil increase in Cash from Dec-10 to Mar-11, and I did not check the reasons for the increase. For comparison purpose, Cash from Q3 (Dec) -> Q4 (Mar),

  • FY13 =  $420Mil -> $523Mil => +$93Mil
  • FY12 = $388Mil -> $498Mil => +$110Mil
  • FY11 = $459Mil -> $581Mil => +$122Mil

Anyway, just a small position wich I can hold for longer term dividends if I'm stuck…..

I have also noticed a rather high level of price volitility due to it's low liquidity (low vol) and will likely exploit any opportunities for short term profits. 😀

Posted on

Popular Hldgs @ $0.225

Sell @ $0.225

A difficult decision to sell… From the last results for Q3 (Jan-14), the Balance Sheet appears stronger, with an increase in Cash (mainly due to sale of Properties) but a weakening of Net Profits (due to increasing expenses – altho' they seem to imply it is mainly one-off due to more Trade Shows). Still, I decided to pare down my exposure (still quite huge) to free up more cash for alternatives… 😀

I'm recognising a huge loss here as I'm cutting off the highest priced buys @ $0.25+. Main reasons for this Creative Accounting,

  • Enough profits in Mar-14 to offset the losses
  • Less painful (psychologically) to do further selling if prices do drop further (average cost pf balance = 19.3ct) if biz worsens
Posted on

SB REIT @ $0.775

Buy @ $0.775

Add back to my portfolio. The last time I was vested was just after IPO, taking advantage (and of course risk) during the 30-Days Stabilising Period that the Stabilising Mgr will provide price support. 😀

As part of my studies for AIMSAMPReit as a potential ‘Special Situation’ play (due to their heavily discounted Rights Issues of 7-for-40 @ $1.08), SB REIT had caught my attention in the Industrial REITs comparison table,

Industrial REITs

REIT

Price

Yield

Gearing

NAV

VIT

$ 0.760

8.943%

38.8%

$ 0.750

1.3%

Sabana

$ 1.020

8.520%

36.9%

$ 1.070

-4.7%

AIMSAMPI Reit

$ 1.340

8.269%

26.5%

$ 1.518

-11.7%

SB REIT

$ 0.780

7.679%

29.3%

$ 0.800

-2.5%

CLT

$ 1.110

7.638%

29.1%

$ 0.980

13.3%

MIT

$ 1.350

7.437%

36.3%

$ 1.110

21.6%

AIMSAMPI Reit

$ 1.340

7.376%

34.3%

$ 1.443

-7.1%

MapletreeLog

$ 1.040

7.077%

33.9%

$ 0.910

14.3%

Cambridge

$ 0.715

6.941%

28.7%

$ 0.695

2.9%

Ascendasreit

$ 2.210

6.407%

30.1%

$ 1.945

13.6%

 

Colour Code

Gearing

NAV

< 30%

> 10% Discount

30% to 35%

< 10% Discount

N A

< 10% Premium

> 35%

> 10% Premium

 

Note that SB REIT had recently announced an acquisition that’ll be funded by debts. This will result in better DPU (Yield) but also Higher Gearing (my Est is >30%). The bigger risk (besides Industrial Assets) is that being newly listed, there’s no track record for us to refer to ie. how shareholder friendly or unfriendly…

BTW, AIMSAMPReit “Special Situations” didn’t materialise… Let’s see if it resurfaces during the coming Quarterly Reporting… assuming DPU drops substantially due to the enlarged Share Base (from Rights Issue)…