Posts

Posted on

Neratel @ $0.7233

Buy @ $0.725, $0.72

Helping to provide price support… Did a Jump-Q @ 5pm for the 72ct ones. These are extras and can be for short term trading..:D

Looks like the 2 prelim negative writeups by the analysts may be having some impact on share price weakness. The interesting points from the OSK DMG report below,

  • Nera Product Distribution Agreement Expires in Jan-14 ie. they will not only retain the Nera brand, but will be able to distribute other brands as well
  • OSK DMG has made the conclusion that Neratel will stick to the status quo of High Dividend Payout instead of a Growth path. I wonder if it's based on the Div = 4ct payout or they'd spoken to Nera mgmt??

Share price may head towards $0.70 till it gets closer to xd time… as even OSK DMK Tgt Price = $0.72…

 

Posted on

HLFin @ $2.67

Buy @ $2.67

Itchy fingers… Their FY13 results will also be out on 27th (same as STEng). 2H Div = 8ct for the past 3 years and most likely will be maintained as 9M Annualised EPS = 18ct is sufficient for this payout.

At the same time, I can also treat it as "Short Covering" as I'd sold a substantial amount of my holdings at $2.74 to $2.77 (at huge realised losses) last month when someone appeared to be trying to push the price up. 😀

Posted on

STEng @ $3.82

Sell @ $3.82

Contra off my recent buy. I have a timing + internet banking xfer limit issue which'd require precise timing and absolute $$ accuracy (in my advance free cash computations) to manage when my Neratel buys are due for payment this week. Doing a contra for STEng buy would alleviate the problem a bit as it frees up some cash flows and allows for some margins of error in my figures… 😀

Saw the pre-open matching at $3.83 and decided to try a jump Q. However, it opened at $3.81 and I left my $3.82 sell order in the Q, which got done at 9:14am. Will try to buy back if I still have free cash, before it announces FY13 results on 27th.

Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.745

Sell @ $0.745

Jump-Q at 5pm matching to clear my tiny stake. I just couldn't resist the temptation to take profit, especially since I'm totally out of Free Cash. In fact, I was even planning to take a couple of $$ Loss by selling at $0.725 in the AM so that I could buy Neratel…

At $0.745,

  • Yield = 8.64% remains the 2nd highest of all REITs
  • Gearing = 35.8% is just above my danger 35% level ie. Good Chance of New Shares Issues which are usually DPU Dilutive
  • NAV = $0.73 ie. 2.05% Premium

In addition, FOREX Risks means a further strengthening of S$ can be detrimental to Yield (DPU) & NAV. Will be +ve if A$ stregthens.

Still, if not for my need to raise Free Cash (for Opportunistic Buys), I'd have very likely keep it till the next Q when they do their semi-annual DPU Payout… Will likely vest again if it should drop… 😀

Posted on

Neratel @ $0.73

Buy @ $0.73

Results were out last night. In summary,

  • Div = 4ct maintained
  • Cash = $39.3Mil (10.85ct / share), recovered from the drop last 2Qs from $41Mil to $25Mil
  • Revenue Flat ; Profit Lower (if exclude Extraordinary Gains from Nera Malaysia acquisition)
  • Telecom +ve for Both Revenue & Profit but Orders Reduced
  • Infocomm Lower for Both Revenue & Profit (Large drop due to Increased Expenses) but Orders Increased
  • FY Results shows good Profits from Telecom and much lower profits from Infocomm
  • Q4 Results and Order Intake shows a strengthening Infocomm and weakening Telecom, likely continuing into FY14

If we strictly look at FY13 results, it's rather disappointing if we exclude the one-time Gains from Nera Malaysia acquisitions. In fact, prelim reports from OSK DMG & Lim & Tan indicated similar views…

But, if we look at the strategic changes they'd put in place to increase their recurring income from Payment Solutions segment,

  • Leasing model – Explains the depletion of Cash in previous Qs to buy Equipments for Leasing
  • Leverage on Indonesia network of new controlling shareholder – Indonesia biz was lower FY13 vs FY12

and if they do succeed, we could potentially see growth… Will need to monitor their quarterly financials closely….

Anyway, their maintaining 4ct div + Cash increase is sufficiently reassuring for me… for now… If the price do go up substantially before it xd, I'll likely take some profits… If it goes down, I'll likely buy more..  ðŸ˜€

Posted on

LMIR @ $0.395

Sell @ $0.395

Reduced my stake to raise cash for buying Neratel.

Q4 Results on 13-Feb with DPU = 0.56ct, down from Q3 = 0.87ct (-35.6%). Main culprits were,

  • INR weakened by >5%
  • Dilution due to 11% New Shares Issued
  • Increased Financing Expenses (New Bonds Issue to retire an expiring one)

Other possible culprits would be increased mgmt fees…

DPU will very likely recover some for next couple of Qs but will stay weak unless INR strengthen and / or they do accretive acquisitions.

Coupled with the economic and political (Presidential Elections) risks, I have decided to realise quite a substantial loss and channel the funds to other stocks…

Posted on

STEng @ $3.797

Buy @ $3.80, $3.79

Decided to use the free cash raised from selling other stocks to buy STEng as my other targets had gone up… STI has slowly crept back to 3088.79 vs <3000 just a couple of weeks back.. many target stocks are now outside my radar…

A quick relook at Q3 (Sep) financials & forward statement,

One concern which I have is that it may suffer the same problems as SATS & SIAEC (being in a similar Aircraft Services Industry) of rising costs, causing a big Sep-Dec Quarter drop y-o-y in both Revenue & Profits… and of course weakening the share price. But, altho' we do start to see a similar weakening in Q3 (Sep), the forward statement of a comparable FY2013 vs FY2012 Revenue & PBT does seem reassuring… Perhaps STEng, being partly in the Defence Industry is better shielded??

My projection (assuming the same 90% Payout Rate) is DPU = 12.9ct to 13.4ct, lower than last year of 13.8ct ie. a -3% to -6%  drop. Of course, I hope to be pleasantly surprised by a lower drop or even a tiny gain when they announce their Q4 results on 27th Feb…

Note that @ $3.80, PE = 20.26 ; Yield = 4.42% is more than fully valued… My game plan is short term, max till just before xd.. But, can hold for long term if plan fails… won't lose too much sleep as they have $12Bil+ in their Order Books.. 😀

Posted on

FCT @ $1.695

Sell @ $1.695

Sold off my only profitable batch to free up some cash… saw some target alternatives… 😀

FCL is the parent of FCT, so, my recent vesting in FCL also offers me an indirect stake in FCT and FCOT…

Posted on

FCL @ $1.415

Buy @ $1.415

Q1 results were released before mkt opened. Looks good to me, with bigger increases in Revenue & Profit coming from Australia side. Other points,

  • EPS increased y-o-y from 9.45ct to 10.42ct (4.12ct based on increased share base)
  • Unrecognised Revenue = $2.1Bil (Singapore) + $0.8Bil (Australia)
  • NAV increased from $2.12 to $2.15, looks like increase was mainly from Investment Properties previously (see pg16)
  • Some of their Debts are "hidden" as Trade Payables (to F&NT previously, but now to FCLT) – refer to pg6 of Financials

Just wondering if they'll pay out an Interim Div next Q…. 😀

From their Introductory Document dated 28 Oct 13, pg 57 on Dividend Policy,

  • Dividends paid to F&N previously (using max share base 2,892,432,490 shares),
    • 9M013 : 5.2ct
    • FY2012 : 5.2ct
    • FY2011 : 6.9ct
    • FY2010 : 8ct
  • 75% of Net Profit After Tax to be Recommended subject to conditions
Posted on

A-HTrust @ $0.72

Buy @ $0.72

A new addition to my current postfolio. I was previously vested during IPO and subsequently added more when prices dropped. However, I decided to sell off my entire stake when they announced an acquisition cum fund raising for a Singapore hotel, which resulted in a lower DPU and no improvement to Gearing…

Last week, they released their Q3 (Dec) results on 6-Feb (Thu). DPU had improved from 1.41ct (Sep) to 1.61ct. The Yield would improve from 7.78% to 8.88%. It looks like their Australian Hotels are finally done with their AEIs plus re-positioning and finally seeing improved earnings. At the same time, the costs involved in the Singapore acquisition must have seen the last of it's negative impact on earnings.

On Friday (day after results), prices quickly went up to 73.5ct to 74ct. I decided to give it a miss as it'd gone up and it wasn't a Dividend Paying Q anyway (Semi-Annual). But, this week, I see it dropping back, with someone persistently selling down.. As I now have a bit of free cash, my fingers got itchy….

The other news I read which affected my decision was a Bloomberg article which mentioned that Australia was enjoying better biz with China (majority of A-HTrust assets are in Australia) and this is helping to drive their economy..

Still, it can be short term as market is full of uncertainties and surprises nowadays.. Seller CP = Macquarie, an Australia linked entity… 😀