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Posted on

FCL @ $1.512

Buy @ $1.515 & $1.485

Newly listed today with shares issued as Dividend-in-Specie (DIS) to F&N shareholders (1 x F&N => 1 x F&N + 2 x FCL).

Pre-DIS indicative NAV were,

  • F&N = $1.69
  • FCL = $2.04
  • Total = $5.77

An old CIMB report has the following Valuation figures,

  • F&N = $1.90
  • FCL = $1.96
  • Total = $5.82

Post DIS, we see today,

  • F&N = $2.47
  • FCL = $1.485
  • Total = $6.44

So, we see a good premium to F&N and a good discount to FCL. F&N is likely being supported by the current 12ct div (xd on 4-Feb) plus another 42ct Capital Reduction (yet to announce EGM).

Yesterday, there was also an SGX Annc which gave FCL NAV = $2.12! At today's close, we're seeing a 30% discount… I'm buying based on this quick preliminary study plus memories of past studies which I'd done and posted in VB forum last year where I also compared against CDL & CapLand.. Will have to redo my studies soon as Property Stocks are now not in favour, due to adverse impact of govt cooling measures…

Still, I imagine it's one of the Special Situations described byJoel Greenblatt… unwanted 'child' (FCL fm DIS) being thrown out by pre-existing shareholders who're only keen on the parent (F&N)… Let's watch and learn… 😀

Posted on

SingTel @ $3.53

Buy @ $3.53

Add back to my portfolio. A better timing to look at it would have been closer to their FY end in Mar. However, it has dropped below my previous buy price and perhaps worth a short term bet. Seller CP = Goldman Sachs. Looking at the huge volume, perhaps major rebalancing… Hopefully, not a prelude to Temasek placing out their SingTel shares at a discount…

PE= 16 ; Yield = 4.75%, altho' not fantastic, is more attractive to me as compared to the other 2 TELCOs (M1 : PE = 28.95 ; Yield = 4.51% @ $$3.24 ; StarHub : PE = 19.29 ; Yield = 4.76% @ $4.20).

Posted on

HLFin @ $2.77

Sell @ $2.77

It's interesting to see someone (CP = CitiGroup) collecting at this price level, even while the STI was -40+.  Perhaps buying ahead of the expectation of an 8ct dividend for 2H?

Decided to do a switch to STEng (-ve) even though I'd realise a loss.. welcome to my interpretation of the Value Arbitrage approach (from Seth Klarmen book, "Margin of Safety"). 😀

Posted on

STEng @ $3.8688

Buy @ $3.88, $3.85

I noticed that it'd been dropping for a while. Just on 7-Nov-13, when it announced Q3 results, it closed @ $4.20. I'm betting that it's being sold down by some Fund who must have decided to do some rebalancing of their portfolio. I see CP = MSCO in my separate buys.

For last year, Q4 results was released on 15-Feb-13 and the Final Dividend = 13.8ct. The dividend payout has been increasing since FY09 and I don't expect it to be reduced, based on 9mths EPS to date.

It's still not exactly undervalued as PE = 20.52 & Yield = 4.364%. This will be a short term bet but I can also hold for longer term. 😀

Posted on

ThaiBev @ $0.54

Sell @ $0.54

With STI -48, I got cold feet and decided to contra off…. Another reason is to switch the cash to other stocks which'd dropped…

Another thought which crossed my mind is to perhaps do some short term trading as I only need 0.5ct (1 bid) to make some kopi-$$. If I were to get stuck, then I'd keep it for longer term… 😀

Posted on

ThaiBev @ $0.535

Buy @ $0.535

Impromptu decision to try to Jump-Q during pre-open…

Have been thinking and thinking since it was 40ct, even before their takeover of F&N. The main thing holding me back is their high gearing… and that's even before the F&N saga… Another thing is their earnings are mainly coming from Spirits, which is mainly being sold to low income workers…. Their Beer biz has been running at a loss. They're No.2 in Thailand (after Singha) and has little presence overseas.

One potential positive is in the Beer biz, assuming they can tap on the experience of F&N, in terms of branding, marketing and distribution. In this respect, I have noticed a bigger presence in FairPrice (NTUC) & at the coffee shop, I noticed the Bottles had gone for a makeover – it looks more attractive and less like some cheap unknown beer. Lastly, F&N had been giving out $$ through dividends and Capital Reduction plus FCL as Dividend-in-Specie. That may be able to help lower their gearing…. a bit.

Posted on

Portfolio Q413

Portfolio Breakdown

My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stocks for Q413 close,

 
Summary
 
The STI closed at 3167.43, +0.01% from end 2012. Using cost as a reference, my portfolio stats (vs 2012),
  • Size (Stocks Only) : +9.61% (Cost) / +7.20% (Market Value)
  • Portfolio Performance vs End-2012 Mkt Value : -1.61% (Unrealised) +11.23% (Realised) + 5.15% (Div) = +14.77%
  • Further Breakdown of Realised Profits : 9.27% (Stocks Bought before 2013) + 1.96% (Stocks Bought in 2013)

So, +14.77% vs +0.01% (STI), better than STI. Dropped from Q313 (+16.42% vs STI +0.02%), slightly better than Q213 (+14.32% vs STI -0.53%) and below Q113 (+18.51% vs STI +4.45%. When measured wrt STI, the best performance was in Q3 (+16%) and in the same +14% band for the other 3 Qs.

For Q4, I was most active in Oct & Nov as I was wearing my Trading Hat ie. Short Term Trades in sync with the market volatility due to QE3 Tapering Fears. In Dec, I was quite inactive due to the School Hols….

For Q114, with QE3 Tapering certainty mapped out, volatility (if any) will have to come from other fears. Most likely, my game plan would be to go for Dividend Plays as this will be the busiest FY end reporting Q.

 

Portfolio Changes (vs Q313)

  • New Additions : FCT  
  • Increases : NeraTel, Popular, Vard
  • Decreases : HLFin, LMIR, UMS, Forterra
  • No Change : Saizen, SBSTransit
  • No More :  ARA, , SPH,  KGT

 

Posted on

HLFin @ $2.74

Sell @ $2.73/4/5

Looks like there's active buying in action. Since I don't see any new fundamental info, decided to try out Sam's shorting strategy (using own loss-making holdings ie. Sell Hi – Buy Lo). Worst case, if it doesn't go back down, I'm still ok as I'd been recording Stock Assets at Market Price anyway ie. Net Worth still goes up due to higher prices, despite recognising a real loss….

Sold 3 times and all the Buyer CPs were different – Lim&Tan, UOBKH, DBSV… This really spoil my take that it's Year End Window Dressing in action… Now it looks more like co-ordinated Buying by Traders across different local brokerages…

My own conjectures only… don't rely on that… 😀

Posted on

HLFin @ $2.69

Sell @ $2.69

Sold the ones I'd bought recently as a short term play. A pleasant surprise to see that it'd closed @ $2.70 yesterday when I got back. Very low volume but looks like soneone is trying to support the price at this level… Perhaps year end window dressing? 😀