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Buy @ $1.475
New addition to my portfolio. More for short term and based on previous data that I'd compiled, which showed better earnings from Q213 (after big drops in FY12 vs FY11). Sands (competing casino in Singapore) had been releasing their Quarterly results earlier than Genting and the market would usually move accordingly (expecting similar +/- trend for Gentings). I'm betting on a continued positive trend… 😀
Sell @ $2.76, $2.77
Need to free up more cash to buy other stocks. I have reached my objective to cut down to 5% of my portfolio. Since I seem to feel quite good, despite making realised losses, I plan to continue selling…
It's been 4 years 4months since I first bought for my longest held lots and the price is ~ -15% for my expensive ones. I suppose, with the Dividends collected to date, I probably still have a Nett Gain of 0.x% annualised. Not good at all… considering the recent high inflation..
Although HLFin continues to be highly undervalued when compared to their NAV = $3.68 ie. 25% Discount @ $2.76, my current thoughts are this is not meaningful unless there's a G.O. Without such an Offer, the markets appears to be valuing it based on a Yield of 4%+. If that's the case, we'd require EPS to improve such that they can increase the DPS. Perhaps 2014 will be the year? They'd previously stated that theie EPS is suffering due to the super low bank interest environment. So, when Tapering starts, interest rate is expected to go up and HLFin EPS will go up? But, perhaps a 4%+ Yield will drop in attractiveness when compared to the higher interest rate?? I won't be hanging around to find out… At this point, I see other stocks of better potential which I want to switch over to..
Well, as Warren Buffett said, "Price is what you pay, Value is what you get." At the prices I'd paid, I'm definitely not getting any Value… Perhaps those who'd gotten it at < $2.50 would find good Value (Good Yield + Capital Gains)… 😀
Buy @ $0.575
Hardly any volume in the morning when I decided to put into the front of the Buy Q. Surprisingly, after it got done, there were buyers at $0.58 & even $0.585! There goes my plan to collect slowly for their Q4 reporting in Feb. Let's see if it pulls back in the coming days… 😀
A date to watch is 19-Jan when semi.org releases the prelim BB figures for Dec-13. I'm expecting BB to stay above 1 but likely lower than Nov-13 BB of 1.11.
Buy @ $3.87
Add to my inital stake. They have been releasing positive Q413 New Biz for each of their different segments over the last few days. I'm surprised mkt is selling down instead… perhaps not up to mkt expectations? Never mind… stick to my gameplan to buy for the FY13 Div announcement in Feb. 😀
Sell @ $1.575
Contra off my entire tiny stake. Rather surprised at the quick turnaround in demand and it closed strongly ~10ct higher @ $1.67. At current prices, discount to NAV is ~-21.2%, which is very similar to Capitaland (NAV = $3.74 ; Price = $2.95 => Discount = -21.1%). I was thinking Capitaland looks like a better option now as it has the advantage of being listed for a longer period of time and thus better certainty. However, a quick look at ft.com on their financials shows Increasing Debts (to Grow Assets) but Decreasing EPS. Coupled with the fact that I'm not too familiar with Capitaland, I better give it a miss… unless fingers itchy for a short term punt..
Post-mortem : Looks like this Joel Greenblatt Special Situations experiment worked… too well! Go read his easy-to-read books for more info. Still, a word of caution… When SPH spun off SPH REIT, there was no similar market sell off. What's important is still the need to do a valuations of the 'child' (spun off stock) to see if it's undervalued.
That was what I was trying to do last week… scrambling to check the NAV discount / premium and comparing with the closest competitors (Capitaland & CDL). That however didn't help much as Capitaland was at a discount (-20%) while CDL was at a premium (+13.6%). The only help was FCL was at -30% discount.
Next, an equally quick study was done on the biz segments (posted the powerpoint slide previously) and altho' the residential mkt (>50%) was a dampener (govt cooling measures), the assurance was many of the projects were majority sold and there were $2Bil+ of unrecognised Revenue ie. will be recognised over the next couple of years. In addition, in the pipeline was their plan to spin off a Hospitality REIT.
So… decision was to buy…
Finally, one reason I sold quite fast is the lingering doubt I have on the NAV. I have still not found out why and how it went up from $1.88 to $2.12 in such a short time of a couple of months. Most likely, some financial engineering?? Well… as Warren Buffett said, "A Bird in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush." ie. Taking Profit means Cash in Hand … Time to move on.. 😀
Sell @ $3.57
Decided to contra off (no more left) for the following reasons,
But, will likely buy back on dips due to itchy fingers syndrome… 😀
Buy @ $0.575
A difficult decision as I'm buying back at a higher price than what I'd previously sold. My optimism is due to my just having checked that the latest Semicon Eqpt BB = 1.11 (Nov) which was released on 19-Dec-13 (>2 weeks back). Very likely, we'll see a continued BB >1 for Dec, which bodes well for UMS Q413 (Dec) results (released on 28-Feb last year) and the Div = 2ct will likely be at least maintained.
PE = 11.74 ; Yield = 8.621% @ $0.58. Yield is very attractive but biz is highly cyclical and there's no guarantee the Div payout will be maintained. PE is not too attractive for a mid-caps. The added attraction is they have zero debts and Cash = $30Mil (8.77ct / share). Main fear, I guess, is still the major shareholder cum CEO coming to sell down his stake… 😀