Posts

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Forterra @ $2.13

Buy @ $2.13

The official SGX Annc was released yesterday on Nan Fung acquiring their 29.98% stake and the 100% of the Management company. This is after the unofficial release on 23-Aug when I jumped in to increase my stake at $2.21 to $2.36 for an average price of $2.2919.  It's not performing to my expectations of moving towards the $2.98 price they paid. Coupled with the 10 days STI decline, it looks very scary…. 😀

Today, with the STI finally turning positive, fingers got itchy and decided to buy more to bring down my average price. In the worst case, be prepared to hold for longer term. If my analysis of their Q213 (Jun) Financials are correct, their recent sale of an asset has inceased the Amount available for Distribution to 19ct / unit. I'm hopeful that they'll resume their DPU payout from 2H (Dec-13), unless the cash flow need to be deployed for either debts reduction (for Q213, Finance Cost > NPI) or to be utilised for other Developmental projects.

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SPH @ $3.92

Buy @ $3.92

Didn't know that STI was on the 10th day of decline yesterday. With STI +ve, decided to buy SPH, which is -ve. So much fears… Syria causing oil price to go up, India & Indonesia currency on downward spiral, US FED QE3 easing soon…. Looks set to be a long term investment…:D

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Popular Hldgs @ $0.275

Sell @ $0.275

Sold the last of my higher priced ones, at a loss. Am using the profits realised from selling Neratel to mute this loss… not so heart breaking… 😀

With STI -50.39 @ 3034.02 and having dropped from 32xx, I have made this difficult decision to ensure I have some free cash. The idea is to sell low-beta stocks (those which have lower % fluctuations wrt STI) and perhaps switch it to high-beta ones (high % fluctutation wrt STI) during bearish market, in the hope that if and when the recovery does come along, we'd have made more than the realised lossed…. Still, have to ensure the quality of any stocks before buying, otherwise, it'd be a case of selling winners to buy losers. Tough decision… 😀

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SB REIT @ $0.71

Buy @ $0.71

Got it lower during 5pm matching when sellers appeared. No more buying from Mr Lim (major shareholder) but also no shorts for 2 days. 😀

Looking at it rationally, Yield = 8.21% ; Gearing = 29.9% ; NAV = $0.80, it does look rather attractive for longer term hold. The main minus are it's newly listed (no track record), non-pedigreed sponsor (not TLC, GLC or Blue-Chip linked) & Industrial REIT (first to be hit in downturns are usually factory closure).

Will likely get more if it drops. But, may be tempted to take profit from $0.825 to preserve cash…

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UMS @ $0.51

Buy @ $0.51

Slowly add more to my holdings as and when there're any in sell Q. 😀

From recent news and FED minutes, US recovery looks good. Even Europe is showing early signs of recovery. This ought to translate to stronger consumer demands and spending. The possible negative is Asia, with Indonesia, India and Thailand showing signs of financial stress… In the worst case, there're some who see AFC-II…

I think UMS, with their main customer being Applied Materials (US co.) ought to provide some defensive balancing to my portfolio if they get to enjoy a US  recovery + stronger US$.

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Forterra @ $2.2919

Buy @ $2.36, $2.35, $2,28, $2.21

At 9:42am, was alerted by Sam of huge volume and price run-up. He checked that 68,268 lots @ $2.98, married deal @ 9:32am. The price and qty figures tally with the Nan Fung deal but there were no SGX Annc. Prices ran up to a high of $2.45 and when it retraced back, I decided to buy… all the way down to $2.21. The SGX Annc finally came out at 12:08pm but prices at best just see-sawed from $2.21 to $2.28.

At least my bet that this deal has a high probability of success did finally come true. The other part I was expecting didn't happen…. I'm expecting prices to trade closer to $2.98, with ~10% discount ie. ~$2.68. Looks like it may take a while and likely need Nan Fung to show more visibilty plus action. My expectation would be something like what F&N did at FCOT. May take a few years… Their last DPU payout was for Jun-11 (1H) and I'm hopeful that they'll resume for Dec-13 (2H) as their cash flow is now a lot better after selling an asset in recent times. 😀

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UMS @ $0.51

Buy @ $0.51

Finally got to buy back some, but higher than the price I'd sold… 1ct dividend / Quarter being maintained as cash flow remains strong. But, they have given a forward guidance that the next Q or 2 will likely be weak. From VB thread, even in the worst case of losses, cash flow is still enough to mainatin a 5-6ct total dividend payout for the year. Take the risk… 😀

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LMIR @ $0.4517

Buy @ $0.455, $0.445

Fears of a weakening Indonesia economy…. See reuters. Hmm… wrong stock to be buying?

STI -44.58 @ 3128.75, many stocks red red… Beginning of AFC-II ?? Good thing I have free cash from recent selling, but using up fast.. 😀

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SB REIT @ $0.715

Buy @ $0.715

Jump-Q during preopen. I wanted to bring down my break-even from $0.73 to $0.725 as it'd give me an option to take profit at a lower price, if required. 😀

Open = $0.715 ; Close = $0.73 ; Range = $0.71 to $0.735 ; Vol = 37,721,000

The surprise for today was the SGX Annc that Mr Lim (Major Shareholder) has bought 20Mil Units @ $0.73 in the open market! This brings his holdings from 19.992% to 22.481%. In addition, there's a 7% which he'd lent to the Underwriter cum Stabilising Manager. If prices remain below IPO price, the Stabilising Manager would be able to buy back and return the entire 7% to Mr Lim.

The question I'm pondering is whether Mr Lim will be required to make a Mandatory General Offer if he crosses over the 30% level. If so, either he'll need to get a waiver from SGX (not to make this offer) or that'll limit how much more he'll buy from the open market as 22.481% + 7% = 29.481% ie. only 0.519% (4,103 lots) left … Let's follow the SGX Annc closely to help us decide on the next course of action.