Posts

Posted on

Popular @ $0.2813

Sell @ $0.285, $0.28

Decided to free up some cash. Sold some in AM by jump-Q routine @ $0.285, not that many lots as it'll tip the balance to $0.28. Tried the same at 5pm closing but wasn't successful and done @ $0.28.

Recent news are their acquisition of the Borders name and the opening of a first store by year end at Jurong East. They'll also be closing down Prologue @ Ion this month. Personally, I'd been expecting that to happen as the rental is likely too high and the Prologue store is occupying too large an area ie. likely bleeding red ink…. As for Borders, I won't be placing too high hopes. It looks like a continuation of their foray into a different Bookstores (Popular is more targetted at schools ie. text books, assessment books, stationery,..) concept from Harris -> Prologue -> Borders…

My original plan was to hold till xd and wait to sell back to them (via Shares Buy-Back) at $0.28. But, need cash as some potential opportunities are knocking… 😀

Posted on

Forterra @ $2.20

Buy @ $2.21, $2.18

Had run up from sub-$2…. Was known as TCT (Treasury China Trust) but changed name when the controlling shareholders "transferred" ownership as they were facing liquidation… Go read VB thread for more.

Their main biz is in China properties. They develop office cum retail properties for sale and rental income. DPU was stopped after Jun-11 half due to insufficient cash flow (prioritised for development of buildings). The controlling shareholders were also embroiled in law suits in Ireland.

What started my interest was the SGX Annc on a Conditional Sales agreement with Nan Fung (unlisted HK Property group) @ $2.98. One of the condition was the settlement at the Irish Courts, which was announced on Irish Times  last night before the SGX Annc this AM.

I'm taking a bet that this complex deal will go through and if so, Forterra share price will move up closer towards $2.98 (likely at least 10% lower, tho'). If it fails, then it'll drop back below $2. NAV = $4.25, ~48% discount now. Closest SGX listed comparable is PCRT, which trades at 19.7% discount to NAV. But, PCRT gives a 6.75% DPU Yield and has lower Gearing = 23.1% vs 34.7% for Forterra.

It's now up to Nan Fung to make their decision. Their lawyers must be scrutinising the Irish Court judgement closely now and I'm expecting them to decide at the earliest, even before market re-opens tomorrow. Any delay, share price will likely start to slide back…

Quite a lot of info in VB forum. Go read it for more info before taking any risk… 😀

 

References

Singapore Law Watch

Posted on

SPH @ $4.32

Buy @ $4.32

The big surprise yesterday was, in a tiny SGX Annc at 12:30pm on Book Closure, this was actually for the 18ct Special Dividend that was promised and previously approved in an EGM, tied to the successful IPO of SPH REIT. If not for someone posting in VB, I'd have also missed that… I was expecting this Special Dividend to be declared together with the FY (Aug) results. SPH share price even closed -2ct @ $4.30!

It seems very surprising to me that the market had not reacted to the Special Dividend announcement. Either it's already been factored into the share price or there's a chance that they have missed it! Possible? Market is supposed to be efficient… especially for index stocks which ought to be very well monitored by all..

I'm betting that market may have missed it. When it opened at $4.32, +2ct, I decided to add more to my holdings. After a few hours, I gave up monitoring as it even touched a low of $4.31…. The pleasant surprise in the afternoon was seeing it hit a high of $4.37 and closing at $4.35. I'm hoping it'll move towards $4.4x as it approaches xd. But, not so important as I'll likely hold till FY (Aug) which is expected to be announced in mid-Oct. Anything above $4.5x, I'll consider to sell… 😀

 

Posted on

SPH @ $4.316

Buy @ $4.32, $4.31

SPH REIT was listed at 2pm and opened at $0.98, hitting a high of $1 and closing at $0.985. With SPH holding at least a 70% stake, my estimate is,

Every 1ct of SPH REIT equates to a value of $17.5Mil or 1.1ct / share for SPH. Using 90ct issue price as a reference, the closing price of $0.985 means an increase in value of $148.8Mil or 9.3ct / share.

But, as someone pointed out in VB forum, their 70% controlling stake means, SPH REIT accounts will be consolidated into SPH Group accounts ie. we won't see any Fair Value Gains due to valuations (of the SPH REIT shares), except for those of the Investment Properties (Paragon & Clementi Mall). Still, if SPH were to sell any of their SPH REIT shares, they'll recognise a realised profit. This is assuming SPH REIT share price stays above the 90ct IPO Price.

FY13 (Aug) results will be out in mid-Oct. We ought to see the 18ct Special Dividend that was promised for SPH REIT being IPOed + Final Dividend ~17ct (last year). Total 35ct, when compared to the current Share Price makes it less unattractive. In the longer run, SPH has the option to issue SPH REIT as Dividend-in-Specie (same as KepCorp issuing KepREIT units). I'll likely buy more if it drops further. 😀

Posted on

F&N @ $5.913

Sell @ $5.93, $5.90

Sold my entire stake to take profit. After it 'CE' yesterday for $3.28 Capital Payment, the share price closed higher. Today, it continued it's rise and was +30ct @ $5.93!

Thai tycoon G.O. price is $9.55 – $0.12 (Final Div) – $0.035 (Interim Div) – $3.28 (Capital Payment) = $6.115 and has gotten an extension till 31-Dec to increase the free float to >10%.

Posted on

KGT @ $1.035

Sell @ $1.035

Sold at a loss as I'm betting that it'll drop closer to latest NAV = $0.99 after it xd today (-2.5ct @ $1.035, DPU = 3.3ct). The next DPU is 6mths away and my target to buy back before then would be $1.02 or lower. No hurry, unless they announce new positive developments eg. new acquisitions… 😀

Posted on

Popular @ $0.275

Buy @ $0.275

The latest URA update shows 4 units sold for 8Raja (May – 3 ; June -1). I estimate a Revenue close to $10Mil but P/L is harder to estimate, my ball park figures is gross ~$350k / unit but note that it could also easily be a loss as the selling price psf is lower than their previous figures.

8Raja

Posted on

Vard @ $0.835

Buy @ $0.835

Yet to find the bottom… Am betting that results will not be as bad as market seems to be expecting. Will know on Thu after mkt closes… 😀

Posted on

Saizen @ $0.189

Sell @ $0.189

Contra off.as overdue. Further, I had exceeded my free cash when I bought KGT as I'd forgotten to record one earlier Vard purchase. That was also why I sold some Neratel via UOBKH ($$ is credited on T+3) so that I could have covered for this shortfall by doing my POEMS payment on T+4. 😀