Just another REITDATA Sites site
Buy @ $1.225
Didn't expect I'd get a chance to re-stock for my short term ones. Looks like the spike up the other day is really due mainly to the analysts' write-up, very short-life indeed! Q1 results will be key to determining whether to hold for longer term as it'd give a good indication whether they're turning around or not. 😀
Buy @ $1.485
A new stock to my current portfolio. Got interested after going to RWS during the March school hols. Compared to our previous visit a couple of years back, the whole place was very crowded. All the 3 attractions (Universal Studios, Marine Life Park, Adventure Cove) was packed with people. No complaints about USS as only one queue was >15mins (surprisingly a simple kiddie ride). For the other 2, perhaps because it's still newly opened, the crowd was quite terrible – not as enjoyable as USS.
Even at the hotels, I noticed many tour groups gathered at the hotel lobby. The luxury products shops, which I'd observed to be empty the whole day during my previous visit, was packed at times, likely by the tour groups. I didn't check out the restaurants this time as there're now cheaper alternatives, like Malaysia Food Street, which was usually rather packed. Even noticed convetioners (from AIA Thailand) were redeeming vouchers there for their dinner.
The whole overall experience was still rather enjoyable.
Coming back (to earth), there was coincidentally an article by TheEdge. In summary,
So, definitely not a Yield Stock. Not a Growth Stock either as EPS dropped due largely to declining margins from 31.64% (FY11) to 23% (FY12). EPS is largely determined by the Casino operations and in this segment, mainly from the High Rollers.
So, why buy?? I'm expecting Q113 to see some improvement, hopefully, at least +10%. Will evaluate again after Q113 results. In the meantime, my entry is a bit high as PE = 30+. Will likely buy more to average down if it drops, but won't be too aggressively. 😀
Sell @ $1.25
Contra off my recent ones. Was too slow in the morning when it was at $1.26 for a short while. Vol = 18,410,000 ; Range = $1.24 to $1.265. Most likely, Oz would have been able to clear their last lots today (Bal = 11,679,000 on 13-Mar). If so, we can hopefully expect it to move higher in the coming days (of course will be reined in by profit taking). The recent positive analysts' reports on Rig Builders bodes well for OSV Builders as biz moves down the food chain with some time lag. Hopefully, it's not confined just to the Asia Pacific region as STX OSV target markets are mainly Northern Europe + Brazil (tiny part). 😀
NOTE
Portfolio Breakdown
My portfolio (at cost) of S'pore stks for Q113 close,
So, +18.51% vs +4.45% (STI), better than STI. Quite unbelievable, looks scary…. Very high chance it's just a case of a 'Rising Tide Lifting all Boats' ie. the Bull market is making us look good… Have to constantly remind myself not to get complacent and continue to put in more effort to do my homework in my analysis and not take unnecessarily higher risks…
Many of my old favourite Yield Stocks are hitting PE close to 20 + many REITs hitting <6% (even <5%) Yield and >30% premium over NAV. Even mid-caps stocks are beginning to look expensive. After selling (always too early), I'm now stuck with Cash not yet deployed (a very rare situation for me). For Q213, I'll have to get busy analysing new stocks to buy… With STI ~3300 and many companies expected to be hit by rising expenses (especially Labour and Raw Materials – Inflation), the focus has to be to only invest if the odds are stacked in my favour ie. to be patient and only invest if there's anything worth investing. In the meantime, perhaps more short term trading activities, starting with April Quarterly Reporting season for REITs…. 😀
Portfolio Changes (vs Q412)
Sell @ $1.40 & $1.405
Managed to sell everything today as there was a buyer. After I sold some @ $1.40, I noticed that someone was doing a buy every ~5mins (perhaps programmed buying). Decided to Q to sell @ $1.405 and slowly fed it as it gets cleared. same Buyer CP '78' – Merrill Lynch.
At $1.05, PE = 18.39 ; Yield = 3.58%. If we were to assume Net Profit is going to grow at the same rate of 20% as last year, the PE is actually quite ok. But, decided to take the cue from the management which'd sold all their Treasury Shares (from Shares Buy Back) ie. they must think current valuations must be more than fair. Anyway, market continues to be bullish, may not be able to get back at lower prices, like many of those I'd sold… 😀
Sell @ $1.025
Sold off my recent buy, make some kopi-$$ only. Decided that a 31.4% premium over NAV = $0.78 looks high (but there are >10 REITs with premium >30% over NAV!). Altho' their AEI will raise the NAV somewhat, it still looks rather high to me. Decided to switch the funds over to Saizen, which had similar Yield of ~7% + similar FOREX risks. May be switching between these 2 REITs if their share price moves in opposite direction. 😀
Buy @ $0.188
A new addition to my portfolio. Assets are all in Japan, Residential Properties. Was listed on 9-Nov-07 @ $1.00. Bad timing as it was subsequently hit by the US Financial Crisis. Did a few value destructive Rights Issues and latest NAV = $0.27. For Japan assets, the key risk (Double Whammy) is FOREX (S$ very strong) + Deflation (20+years already) which'd also contributed to the decreasing NAV.
Controlling shareholder is V-Nee Yeh, a Hong Konger @ ~17%. I'd previously not subscribed for this IPO as I was fearful of foreigners coming here to list in SGX. But, recently, I'd read in the book 'The Value Investors: Lessons from the World's Top Fund Managers' by Ronald Chan that V-Nee Yeh is quite a famous Value Investor from Value Partners (quite well known and sometimes compared to Warren Buffett aproach). My interest was piqued after that…
After IPO, no DPU was paid till Jun-10. Their DPU / NAV / Shares Issued record,
IIRC, some of the Rights came with attached warrants. When exercised, it increased the numbers of shares. They also have a Shares Buy-Back program in place which explains the drop in number of shares from Jun-12 to Dec-12.
Yield = 7.021% ; Gearing = 32% ; NAV = $0.27
Here, I'm kind of switching from A-HTrust which has similar Yield and FOREX risks. I'm also betting on Abenomics to beat deflation. Recent impact is the weakening of Yen, which may impact the next DPU negatively. Hopefully, this'll be offset by the positive impact of inflation…:D