Sell @ $0.265
Gave up waiting for the mysterious 27ct buyer to return. Most likely, it's their old friend at Mellford, which had been steadily increasing their stake over the years,
- 2013 : 29,714,000 or 3.63%
- 2012 : 19,013,000 or 2.26%
- 2011 : 16,556,000 or 1.97%
If it's indeed Mellford, my original dream scenario of a delisting will likely come sooner… but may still take 1-2 years, depending on the speed of Shares Buy Back (which can be accelerated by more bad results…).
My urgency to sell is Blackout period will happen soon. Last year, it was on 27-May-13 as FY13 (Apr) was released on 27-Jun-13. For FY results, it has to be released within 60-days of FY end ie 30-Jun in this case as their FY end is end-Apr. What happened last year during this period,
- Shares Buy Back on 27-May-13 (prior to that, last buy on 8-Feb), the last day, drove the price up 0.5- 1ct
- During Blackout period, it initially went up 0.5ct-1ct for a few days but subsequently dropped 2ct
- After FY results were announced on 27-Jun-13, Buy Back resumed on 4-Jul-13, 18,26,30,31-Jul & 8-Aug before it went MIA till 14-Apr-14
Looking back, we were seeing weaker reults for FY13, after a strong FY12 that was driven by strong growth in Malaysia and a recovery in their Property biz. For FY14, we are seeing weaker Earnings due to higher costs plus an almost non-existent contribution from their Property biz. In fact, FY14 looks set to be their worst since FY09 when they went into the red. In the worst case, they may have to write down their unsold units at 8Raja since they'd not been able to sell.
The only positive left for me is their strong Cash position of $123Mil (15ct / share or 10ct / share net of debts).
Current GamePlan,
- Sell at min. 26.5ct, possibly till zero holding
- Buy back some if it drops to 25ct during Blackout period
- Sell back to them if weak results are announced and Shares Buy Back is resumed
- Buy back more at lower prices below 25ct till FY15 results
The above is subject to change, depending on the Quarterly results…
PS. I'm expecting weaker results, similar to Q1-Q3. If I'm wrong, I'll miss out on any upside opportunity… Their persistent Share Buy Back since 14-Apr-14 is making me think I have a high chance of being wrong… This is not impossible as they could have played with the timing ie. recognising Expenses ahead and pushing Profits till last Q, especially for their Book Fairs…. 😀