Category: Popular Hldgs

Buy @ $0.285

Info from Sam, after checking with ERA agent is that 8Raja has obtained TOP 3 weeks back and had launched and sold 3 units so far. Will take it with a pinch of salt as the agent may be just trying to encourage demand… Will have to check URA site from 15th of the month to monitor. Still, it shouldn't be difficult to sell as property market is only (?) starting to cool down.

However, note that their FY13 is on April and any sales in May will not appear in their next result announcement. At most, it'll be mentioned in their forward statement. 😀

Buy @ $0.28

Mr Chou is MIA… Collect some more in case he comes back to buy @ $0.29. If not, then hold till Q4 (Apr) Results sometime in June. 😀

Buy @ $0.285

Big seller appeared in late afternoon. Looks like Mr Chou's pocket is not that deep, as I'd expected. Recent buys can be for short term if prices do rise due to Mr Chou's support. If not, will keep for FY13 (Apr) results and hope they maintain the 0.8ct div. 😀

Buy @ $0.285

After being tricked yesterday into buying at $0.29 during 5pm matching, I don't dare to try my Jump-Q routine anymore. Many sneaky players aro' these days. As there were less than 100 in Buyer Q in AM, I decided to put some in Q. Finally got done in late afternoon and by then, the Buyer Q has swelled to more than 700. Put my faith in Mr Chou's buying, add back to my collection. 😀

Buy @ $0.29

Missed the selling at $0.285 and tried to do a Jump-Q at 5pm but not successful at the last minute. The consolation is Mr Chou had been buying at this price recently under his wife's name. But, his pocket may not be as deep as the Share Buy Back Program (last cap observed at $0.26) and this $0.29 support may not hold.

Anyway, just follow his optimism… Perhaps he's negotiating to sell 8Raja enbloc to someone like Peter Lim (eg. WingTai chairman is selling his Nassim Road GCB, perhaps he need a new place for his dynasty..). Joking only hor… 😀

Sell @ $0.295

Decided to clear the balance of my recent buys. Take profit 1st as market is likely to stay uncertain till Cyprus issue is resolved. I doubt that I'll be able to buy back at 26.5ct (1 bid above their highest Share Buy-Back price) as the next results will be for Q4 (declared 0.8ct Final Div last year). For now, set my indicative buy back price @ 28ct or ideally lower ie. 27ct to 27.5ct. Will revise again depending on market condition. I may sell more from my existing ones if it hit 30ct and above and market condition is bearish… 😀

Sell @ $0.295

Partially done, didn't even know some were done on Friday until I was doing my payment (as overdued)! Fortunately, only added ~0.1ct to the unit cost as 22 lots done.

Share price remains rather strong as compared to the weaker market sentiment. Cyprus bailout is now in limbo as it'd been voted down by their Parliament. This issue will likely cause uncertainty to drag for a while. Good for trading only! 😀

Sell @ $0.29

Contra off half, keep the other half as I got greedy. My target price was $0.275 to $0.28. To me, Q3 results shows that their earnings decline may not be as bad as I'd thought previously (from Q1 & Q2 financials). Will need to study Q4 (Apr) to confirm. May not drop back to 26.5ct level, will have to re-think my target prices….:D

Buy @ $0.265

Finally got to execute my Sell-High-Buy-Low plan when I sold a fair bit from $0.27. But, I don't think I'll get to buy back those $0.255 ones when I thought the Shares Buy Back will be capped at Q2 NAV = 25.17ct ie 25ct. 😀

Q3 Results were out last Friday after mkt closed. Some highlights,

• EPS = 1.4ct vs 1.44ct last year (I was expecting 1-1.2ct as I was expecting Admin and Distribution & Selling Expenses to continue to be high + No Property sold)
  • Admin Expenses continues to be ~10% higher, looks like a permanent thing likely due to higher wages + higher headcounts (4 more stores, net)
  • Distribution & Selling Expenses dropped -22%! Even turned 9mths total to -4%. Perhaps it's due to timing difference of when they hold their BookFest in Singapore, Malaysia & HK (To check if I can find the time but not that impt)
  • No Property Sold, as expected (I estimate last year EPS ~0.2ct+)
• Devt Property = $79M vs $75.4M (Q2)
  • Read in VB forum that 8Raja is slated for launch only in Jun (Need to confirm)
  • If true, that explains the higher valuation ie. % Completion gets higher
  • Looks like they may be confident of selling since no 'Impairment to Fair Value' was provided. We'll likely get to see in Q4, after they'd launched
• NAV = 26.66ct is within my expectation
  • I was also guessing that's the reason they raised Shares Buy Back price to 25.5ct on 5-Feb and 26ct on 6-Feb, right after their Q3 (Jan) end, assuming the cap is NAV.
  • Let's see if they further raise to 26.5ct
• Cash = $122.4M, slightly increased from $118.9M (Q2)
  • Note that they have to pay for the Industrial Building in Q4, which they'd successfully tendered @ $26.9M.
  • Cash may be lower in Q4, unless offset by good sales of 8Raja (if launched)

Other Comments

Q3 EPS was better than my expectation. I'd previously sold quite a bit at 25.5ct and more from 27ct when it started rocketing  due to my negative forecast. As such, I'm now more optimistic and today's sell-down (also likely helped by Cyprus bailout news) has made me decide to do some buy back. I was expecting it to be difficult to get at 26ct or lower as I may be competing with the Shares Buy Back program. But, that's not to say that it won't drop below 26ct if a severe mkt correction happens. As such, I'd not be too aggressive to buy back more and I'd also likely trade if opportunity arises.

 

Sell @ $0.325

Managed to sell some just after mkt opened at 9am. Subsequently, I read in VB forum on a very positive BT article today which'd imputed a value of 63ct! I'm therefore very surprised at the huge sell-down today, closing at 28ct, -3.5ct! I think the journalists + editors ought to be investigated for the recent huge run-up!!

Note that 28ct is still higher than the large qty which I'd sold during the beginning of the run-up on 5-Mar. 😀