Category: Popular Hldgs

Sell @ $0.305

Really hitting my 1st dream price of 30ct! Closed @ $0.315, looks like more room for upside! 😀

Sell @ $0.295

Continue to reduce my holdings as price has reached close to my original dream price of $0.30. The story has also changed substantially since 1 year back when I started accumulating,

1. Growth due to Malaysia operations + Properties -> Decline due to much higher expenses + No / Little Properties. Still nothing heard about sales of 8Raja and with the 7th cooling measures, prospects doesn't look very bright. Can still be a joker in the pack.

2. Huge Cash 17.35ct peaked in Q4 (Apr12) but has since dropped to 14.14ct. Will likely rebound to >15ct in coming Q3 (Jan) but will likely drop again due to purchase of $27M Industrial Building in Mar.

3. PE = 5.54 @ $0.205 vs 7.97 @ $0.295 using FY12 (Apr) EPS but will increase further due to lower earnings in FY13. Using latest 4Qs of EPS, Forward PE = 9.87.

4. Yield = 6.341% @ $0.205 vs 2.712% @ $0.295. The drastic drop is not due to just increasing share price but the sudden cut in Interim Div of 0.5ct.

Note that I'm not doing a quick divestment as the market continues to be bullish and there's a very high chance of further price appreciation. In addition, these are my thoughts on the possibilities on the recent rise in price and volume,

a) Insiders – The coming Q3 (Jan) results are going to be a lot better than my projection, perhaps due to cost control + higher revenues. Properties either contribute positively or they have inked some deals. There's also still a remote possibility of a G.O. finally coming from Mr Chou.

b) Traders – Pumping operation in place. Read in VB forum how HupSteel was pumped up before being dumped. Many mid caps also hitting high valuations closer to 20 eg. BreadTalk. For Popular, Forward PE <10, may have more legs to run if this scenario is true.

c) Institutions – Sudden interest by institutional investor who's trying to build up a meaningful amount eg. 5% ie >40Mil shares. Quite remote as they're usually not keen on mid caps stocks but pattern looks consistent with those I'd seen in some REITs.

d) Mkt re-rating – Many stocks are hitting 52-weeks high with higher PE and lower Yield as as result. It may be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats.

Whatever the case may be, I'll stick to my valuation based on my projection, which is telling me to sell at the moment. Q3 (15-Mar) results will be important as it'll allow me to review my projections and adjust my decision accordingly. In the meantime, will continue to slowly sell with every 0.5ct to 1ct increase in share price. 😀

Sell @ $0.27, $0.275, $0.28, $0.285

Huge buy up today! Total Vol = 8,067,000. I don't think it's Shares Buy-Back or Mr Chou as there ought to be a 30-Days period before Quarterly Results where they can't do any transaction. Last one was on 8-Feb and last year, Q3 results was released on 8-Mar. So, my guess is either Traders or Insiders in action today. Buyer CP were '05' – UOBKH, '12' – Lim & Tan, '21' – Kim Eng & '29' – DBSV.

If it's Traders, then Share Price will likely fall back to 26/26.5 over the next few days. If it's Insiders, then I'll kick myself,….haha…

Looking at the trend of Q1 & Q2 results (Lower Profits due to Higher Expenses, despite Higher Revenues), it's hard to believe that they're able to turn around in Q3 (Hope to be surprised and proven wrong). Further, there were Revenue & Profits in Properties for Q312, which so far, I have yet to see any announcements for their 8Raja project.  My projection for Q313 (Jan) is EPS = 1 to 1.2ct vs 1.44ct last year. Projected NAV = 26.5ct to 27ct. Cash ough tto increase from Q2 = $118M to $130M+.

Any surprise from Insiders will likely have to come from Properties…

 

PS. 12-Mar will be the 1st Anniversary of my 1st lots of Popular Hldgs… Seems so long ago now… 😀

 

Sell @ $0.27

Quite a pleasant surprise to see someone buying up at $0.27 and smaller nos. at $0.275. Quickly checked SGX Annc and found one in AM on Shares Buy-Back on 8-Feb @ $0.26 for 617 lots. Took a bet that it's not a new upper ceiling price for Shares Buy-Back and quickly put into the sell Q @ $0.27 (done in 3mins), plus placed some on $0.275 sell Q, while volume was still low. Let's see if I'm right!

One lingering thought is that there's a possibility that insiders may have info which we don't know yet eg. good Q3 (Jan) results + 8Raja good sales… Never mind, I still have a lot… 😀

Sell @ $0.255.

After hitting $0.245/$0.25 in the AM, very strong buying started at 11am with buyer clearing the 25.5ct sell Q of 800+ lots. On a day when STI is -24, I think it may be a good idea to sell some as I have a lot. I doubt that it's Shares Buy-Back at 25.5ct, likely the 25ct ones only. But Q3 is end-Jan, perhaps some insiders may be privvy to their results and started accumulating? Or the usual traders trying to tag on momentum when they saw 25ct Q being cleared?? Let's see what happens in the coming days.

After this round of selling, I'm quite inclined to buy some back if it ever drop back to 25ct. Buyer CP = 17 (CIMB-GK Goh) mainly, followed by 20 (Phillip) and lastly 24 (ABN AMRO), interesting… 😀

Sell @ $0.255

Sold my most expensive ones (Buy @ $0.245 & $0.24 in Nov-12), in anticipation of an interim Div = 0.5ct min. On 10-Dec when 1H results was released, no interim div was declared. Coupled with a not so good 1H results, share price dropped all the way to 21.5ct. Too bad I was busy and had no free cash to buy more.

I was thinking they stopped the interim payout to conserve cash for their ~$27M purchase of an Industrial property but they surprised by starting their Shares Buy-Back on 20-Dec, followed by a more aggressive move on 3-Jan,

Date	Qty	Avg Price
5-Jan-13	3,021,000	$0.25000
4-Jan-13	1,019,000	$0.24500
3-Jan-13	8,366,000	$0.24457
20-Dec-12	1,836,000	$0.22759

The maximum Shares Buy-Back Price is capped at 105% of Avg Closing Price for 5 Working Days.

After the 3 days of aggressive Shares Buy-Back on 3-5 Jan, I was beginning to think this sudden urgency may be due to a possible good response for their 8Raja launch which'll free up lots of cash, now in their Balance Sheet under Development Properties = $75.4M + Profits. Coupled with their traditional strongest Quarter in Q3 (Jan), the NAV ought to be more than 26ct. I was hoping they will do their Shares Buy-Back up to 26ct.

Looks like I was wrong… No Shares Buy-Back after 5-Jan and daily volume had dropped, even though the possible max. buy back price had moved up to 26ct and there were sellers. I think they may have internally capped their Buy-Back price to a max of below current NAV = 25.17ct ie. 25ct. Makes sense as buying above NAV will not add value to shareholders as it reduces NAV.

Finally decided to take some profits, clear my most expensive ones and go into trading mode… 😀

Buy @ $0.235

Huge selling ahead of 1H results today. 😀

Buy @ $0.24

Big seller @ $0.24 (Sell to clear Buy Q of 1207 lots + ?? in Sell Q) causing a mini panic. Probably someone didn't like the idea of them going into more Property biz (EGM just passed resolution).

According to one forummer (who attended the EGM) in VB forum, the main reason is to buy a Property / Land to develop into their HQ. Current premises are rented and running out of space. In this way, they hope to save on rental + Earn extra rental income from any excess areas. Sounds good to me, as long as they don't over-stretched theselves and weaken the Balance Sheet ie. Cash drops + Debts up. 😀

The possibility of a Privatisation Offer by Mr Chou looks more and more remote…

Market seems to be fearful, with STI -19.06 @ 2988.51, dropping below 3000 convincingly. Looking at the STI list, key culprits are Noble -6.4% & Olam -3.8%, both commodity related. Other smaller drops of 1-2% are CMA -1.9%, SemCorp -1.2%, SemMarine -1.4%, HKLand -1.8%. Looks like an indication of recession fears?

 

Time

Price

Trade size

Type

10:09:06	0.240	9,000	Buy Up
10:09:04	0.240	4,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	46,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	1,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	250,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	3,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	20,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	40,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	100,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	100,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	50,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	113,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	100,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	33,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	100,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	80,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	18,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	34,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	44,000	Sell Down
10:09:04	0.240	71,000	Sell Down

 

 

Buy @ $0.245

Finally decided to add some more to my collection. Looks difficult to buy @ $0.24 or below unless market crashes as someone (beside Mr Chou) seems to be collecting @ $0.245. Today, there's a married deal of 613,000 @ $0.246 (this price seems to have become Mr. Chou's signature as it'd happened twice). Also one huge buy up of 401,000 @ $0.245. 😀

After mkt closed, they announced that resolutions for EGM had been passed ie. expand their scope of Property Biz in Singapore to rental + into Industrial / Commercial assets. I'm SPECULATING that they are preparing themselves in case 8Raja + future condo projects eg. Purmei is unable to sell well and they have the option to keep it for rental or even convert into Serviced Apartments.

 

Time

Price

Trade size

Type

14:19:14	0.246	613,000	X
14:17:27	0.240	3,000	Sell Down
12:02:00	0.245	2,000	Buy Up
12:02:00	0.245	399,000	Buy Up
09:03:36	0.245	1,000	Sell Down

 

 

 

Buy @ $0.215

Was trying to do a Jump-Q before mkt open but last min., someone put in a Buy Order to tip to 22ct. This time round, I was prepared and quickly withdrew my order and it opened at 21.5ct. Looks very similar to yesterday evening, maybe someone is intentionally doing that…

Q113 results was out yesterday after mkt close. I posted in FB, reproduce below,

Profitable but worse than my expectation (I expected it to be at least better than 2 years back).

Revenue = $119M, lower than Q112 = $141.6M (includes contribution from Property) & Q111 = $121.5M (zero from Property). Main reason is due to closure of 2 large stores in HK.

EPS = 0.78ct, lower than Q112 = 1.22ct & Q111 = 0.97ct.

Cash = $132.9M (15.81ct/share), lower than last Q = $145.9M. Due to $10M more in Inventory

Only +ve is NAV = 25.86ct, higher than last Q = 25.09ct.

Let's see what happens today… I'll likely continue to buy more on any price weakness.
 

Yield = 6.047% if they maintain same Dividend Payout. For Q2 last year, Div = 0.5ct. 😀