Category: UMS

Buy @ $0.82, $0.81

Finally decided to do something silly… buy at a much higher price… Managed to con-vince myself using Valuations as follows,

Target Yield = 6%

• Assume min 5ct Div 
  • Fm FY12, Div = 1ct/Q + 2ct in Q4 ie Total 5ct
  • If 1-for-4 Bonus is approved, 1 share becomes 1.25 share
    • Assume Div maintained (worst case) at 1ct/Q (no more 2ct in Q4) => 4*1.25ct = 5ct ie.  min 5ct div is mainatined (for existing shareholders)
  • => Assumption of 5ct Div for FY14 is possible in worst case after bonus issue (for existing shareholders)  by reducing Div / Share ie reduce Q4 div fm 2ct to 1ct
• EPS from FY11 to FY13 (except Q413) = 0.35ct to 2.28ct
  • Q413 EPS = 3.19ct
  • Forward statement is positive for 1H14
    • => 1H14 EPS easily 4-6ct ie 2-3ct / Q
  • => Assumption of 5ct Div for FY14 is highly possible, even if 2H14 EPS drops to <1ct / Q
• => Target Price = 5ct (FY14 Div) / 6% (Target Yield) = $0.833

Comments

• Q114 results will be important as it'll give an indication if it is anywhere near Q413 = 3.19ct
  • If so, then there could also be a very good possibility of an increase in Div Payout (could also be deferred till Q414 to cushion for any EPS drops in 2H14)
• Critical dates
  • Next SEMI Book-to-Bill: April 21, 2014 at 3:00pm Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)
  • AMAT Quarterly Results (23-May last year)
  • UMS Quarterly Results (9-May last year)

What looked good were,

• P&L
  • Q4 EPS 3.19ct (much higher)
• BS
  • Cash = 8.5ct / share ; Zero Debts
• Biz Upcycle (at least till 1H14)..
  • BB maintained at 1 or >1 since Oct-13 ; also Jan-13 to Jul-13
  • Aug-13 = 0.98 ; Sep-13 = 0.97
• PE = 9.7 ; Yield = 7.975% (6.135% if Spcial Div excluded)

Take a bet… and my magic worked… prices started coming under pressure… 😀

 

References

• SEMI Feb-14 BB Report
• AMAT IR
• UMS IR

Buy @ $0.65

Looking at the volume, it looked like CEO is not selling any today… Decided to buy back some to partially cover what I'd sold in the AM.

New past-time, CEO-watching… 😀

Sell @ $0.66

Contra off the cheaper ones I bought using a different account @ $0.6467. 😀

The fears & uncertainty created by CEO selling 5,976,000 shares @ $0.65 on 3-Mar  is likely preventing it from going higher… for now. If only he'd not sold, I was expecting prices to head towards $0.80 to $1 (FY13 Div = 6.5ct, inclusive of 1.5ct Special Div equates to a Yield of 6.5% plus this payout is supported by EPS) since biz is on the upcycle and at least for the next 6mths.

For the short term, I plan to be trading and react accordingly, depending on CEO action or inaction…

Buy @ $0.675, $0.67, $0.66, $0.645, $0.65

Results were out last Friday and was very good!

• Q413 Revenue & Profit very much improved
• Div = 2ct + 1.5ct (Special)
• Expects biz to remain strong for 1H14

At $0.655 (Friday close),

• PE = 7.8
• Yield = 9.924% or 7.634% (if exclude Special Div)
• Zero Debts ; Cash = 8.5ct / Share (will be reduced considerable by 3.5ct payout)

This AM, it opened strongly but big seller(s) appeared and seemed determined to sell at $0.645, CP = BNP… I wonder why… and who… Let's hope it's not the CEO.. Fortunately, there were also many ready buyers… for now…

• Vol = 9.199.000
• Open = $0.67 ; Close = $0.645, -1ct ; Range = $0.64 to $0.68

 

Buy @ $0.58

With Q4 reporting drawing near (last year on 28-Feb but I'm not discounting the possibility of an earlier date as 28th is close to the last day of the 60-days reporting requirement for FY results), I have decided to raise my buying price…. 60ct is still my immediate target but I'm flexible, depending on alternatives.. as always.. 😀

Sell @ $0.585

Contra off my most recent buy. I need cash  to buy others which'd dropped while UMS remains steady.. Switching in action… 😀

Buy @ $0.575

Add to my collection as the same price of my last buy. Prelim Dec-13 BB = 1.02. This means a slowdown in the Growth but looking at the individual 'B' (Booking & Billing) figures show a good absolute increase over previous months. May contra off for short term profits and switch to other stocks if it's more attractive. But, can hold till Q4 Results Annc in Feb. 😀

Buy @ $0.575

Hardly any volume in the morning when I decided to put into the front of the Buy Q. Surprisingly, after it got done, there were buyers at $0.58 & even $0.585! There goes my plan to collect slowly for their Q4 reporting in Feb. Let's see if it pulls back in the coming days… 😀

A date to watch is 19-Jan when semi.org releases the prelim BB figures for Dec-13. I'm expecting BB to stay above 1 but likely lower than Nov-13 BB of 1.11.

Buy @ $0.575

A difficult decision as I'm buying back at a higher price than what I'd previously sold. My optimism is due to my just having checked that the latest Semicon Eqpt BB = 1.11 (Nov) which was released on 19-Dec-13 (>2 weeks back). Very likely, we'll see a continued BB >1 for Dec, which bodes well for UMS Q413 (Dec) results (released on 28-Feb last year) and the Div = 2ct will likely be at least maintained.

PE = 11.74 ; Yield = 8.621% @ $0.58. Yield is very attractive but biz is highly cyclical and there's no guarantee the Div payout will be maintained. PE is not too attractive for a mid-caps. The added attraction is they have zero debts and Cash = $30Mil (8.77ct / share). Main fear, I guess, is still the major shareholder cum CEO coming to sell down his stake… 😀

 

Sell @ $0.57

I noticed that someone had been patiently collecting for the past few sessions, but not in very large Qty. An optimistic possibility is someone with insider knowledge of a positive outcome of the CEO's recent visit to Applied Materials HQ in US to source for additional biz.

But, I still decided to take some profits and reduce my stake as the Forward Statement (last Q) is very likely a weaker next 2 Qs. The Industry Indicators is also supporting this as BB <1 for past couple of months. So, better be safe than sorry… 😀